For those of you that have been following along, there’s still time. There’s still time for another Ottawa Senators point projection or two, and today’s, drum roll…bah…bah…bah…Claude Giroux, aka the Claudefather, aka G Money. Just how many points can he record in 2025-26? Find out our analysis and subsequent prediction below.
Veteran Claude Giroux’s 2025-26 Point Projection
Well, good thing we don’t do point projections purely based on linear regression trends. If we did, Giroux would be dropping like a defenceman absorbing a Brady Tkachuk forecheck.
Claude Giroux’s role has shifted somewhat in his time with Ottawa. In 2022-23, when he set a career high of 35 goals, totaling 79 points, he was a top-line player. Moreover, since that time, he has seen a noticeable drop-off in his point totals. In those three seasons, his points-per-60-minutes, starting with the 2022-23 number, have been 3.1, 2.3, and 2.0, respectively.
Now, it would seem as though that negative slide has leveled off somewhat. Furthermore, his impact in Ottawa and final point production has had more to do with the role he has played, rather than his performance. As an example, he set a career high with a faceoff winning percentage of 61.5%. This led him to having high end zone start percentages over all situations. His 17.7 offensive zone start percentage was good for fifth on the Sens amongst forwards. In addition, his 17.5% defensive zone start percentage was actually second on team, again out of the forward group. This meant that Giroux’s utilization was spread out around the ice, not necessarily favouring the offensive side of the puck. Also, he was a bit of a specialist, not always staying on the ice long after having completed the faceoff victory and maintaining puck possession.
We think the possibility of becoming a productive third liner, is a great idea for 2025-26. If he can team up with Ridly Greig and Shane Pinto on an NHL third line, that’s the type of thing that gets teams past the first round. In contrast, this does imply a couple of other things from the rest of the lineup. First of all, it means that the Tim Stutzle, Tkachuk, and Giroux line won’t be Giroux’s main combination.
As we see from the graphic, they have been a go-to line for Ottawa, in terms of Giroux’s ice time distribution in particular. If Giroux does indeed end up on the third line, it would indirectly mean that Fabian Zetterlund took advantage of his opportunity with Stutzle and Tkachuk (or potentially someone else, as well).
The second idea having Giroux on our proposed third line would mean, Michael Amadio won’t team up with Greig and Pinto on the classic GAP-line. Head coach Travis Green might want them together at times, given previously success. Therefore, Giroux would end up with other linemates in those circumstances.
In any case, it is likely that at times Giroux will play with Stutzle and Tkachuk, possibly 5v5 or on the power play, especially those times the team really needs an o-zone faceoff win. So, it might be somewhat similar to last year, in terms of his distribution. The main thing would be the centres, Dylan Cozens, Stutzle, or Pinto getting more clutch faceoff assignments. That is likely to happen for their own development and improvements of their all-around games. This would likely cause Giroux’s total ice time to dip, which is necessarily a bad thing. He would ultimately be fresher when he does get out there in his regular assignments.
Hammering Down a Number for Giroux in 2025-26
To narrow in on our point projection, considering the following. Giroux’s power play productivity in Ottawa has been more consistent than his total points. For power play points, he has had totals of 24, 19, and 18, respectively. We do believe this number stays about the same, to help develop Claude Giroux’s bigger picture, total point projection.
We will say, we see a lot of Giroux’s utilization continue to adapt to the rest of the roster. Last year he skated 18:12 minutes a game, and we think it is likely that dips, if only slightly. Also, it would be hard to imagine his faceoff win percentage stays so high, although crazier things have happened. That would be combined with a lower OZS%.
On the other hand, we do think playing lower in the lineup, on the third line as we explained, will help to boost his 5v5 scoring. The advantage to having someone of Giroux’s talent that low in the lineup, is that he will avoid tough defensive matchups. Furthermore, that line should be able to outplay their opposition more often than not. At 5v5, Pinto had 12.3 expected goals last year, while Greig had 11.8. Giroux’s was 6.8. Therefore, as a line, they could potentially approach 30 goals. In any case, we like to put Giroux’s prediction interval at 45 to 55. Given all the factors we have explained, we would tend to the higher tail of our interval as well. The lower end would be for minimum ice time, lower OZS%, and also, less chemistry with his proposed fellow third liners.
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
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