Cutter Gauthier’s first full NHL season offered Anaheim Duck fans a glimpse of his potential. The 2022 fifth-overall pick scored 20 goals and added 23 assists for 43 points, all while averaging just 14 minutes per game. With Leo Carlsson as his likely centre this year, expectations are climbing quickly.
Cutter Gauthier Point Projection for the 2025-26 Season
To estimate what comes next, we built a projection model that combines usage rates, expected goals, and a 10,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. This approach allows us to balance his rookie numbers with Anaheim’s depth chart realities, giving us both a median expectation and realistic high and low-end outcomes.
The Role and Ice Time Factor
One of the biggest changes for Gauthier in 2025–26 will be ice time. Last season, he played only 14:34 per night, with just 1:32 of power play usage. For a shot-first winger with elite junior and international scoring pedigree, those are limited opportunities.
This year, Anaheim is expected to feature him alongside Carlsson, creating a natural playmaker–finisher duo. That alone should boost his even-strength production. On the power play, he may still start on the second unit, but his shooting profile suggests he could graduate to PP1 if the Ducks need a trigger man. As a result, our model projects his ice time climbing into the 16–17 minute range.
Analytics Driving the Projection
The analytical models support the idea that Gauthier is just scratching the surface. His offensive rating of +3 (60th percentile) shows he was already driving offence at a league-average to above-average rate as a rookie. The catch is his defensive rating of –2 (17th percentile), which highlights why Anaheim’s coaching staff may have sheltered him in minutes and usage.
At the individual level, his expected goals (20) and actual goals (20) lined up almost perfectly, suggesting his shooting efficiency was sustainable rather than luck-driven. Meanwhile, his on-ice impact showed a stark split: +8 in 5-on-5 offence (85th percentile) but –10 in 5-on-5 defence (12th percentile). In other words, when he was on the ice, Anaheim created chances, but they also gave up plenty.
That context matters for projections. We applied linear regression on his finishing slightly toward the league average for age-21 wingers but scaled up his volume. To make the numbers realistic, we negatively regressed his shooting percentage slightly from 10.5% toward a sustainable 9.8–10%. However, we scaled up his shot volume, since playing with Carlsson should increase both controlled entries and slot passes. With Carlsson driving entries and distributing, Gauthier’s shot count should push past 220. His expected goals profile suggests that if he keeps getting into dangerous areas, a 25–30 goal season is attainable even without a shooting-percentage spike. For fantasy purposes, that means Gauthier’s value will be more goal-driven than assist-heavy, at least in the near term.
On the physical side, he already posted 68 hits and 51 blocks — solid secondary stats for a winger. Scaling those rates with more minutes keeps him fantasy-relevant outside of pure scoring categories.
Cutter Gauthier can WHEEL
pic.twitter.com/hdM16a9n09
— NHL (@NHL) April 8, 2025
Cutter Gauthier Projection Table
| Stat | Projection | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 24 | 19 – 30 |
| Assists | 28 | 23 – 33 |
| Points | 52 | 45 – 60 |
| Plus/Minus | –3 | –10 to +4 |
| Power-Play Points | 12 | 8 – 16 |
| Short-Handed Points | 0 | 0 – 2 |
| Shots on Goal | 220 | 200 – 245 |
| Hits | 75 | 60 – 90 |
| Blocks | 55 | 45 – 65 |
| Penalty Minutes | 26 | 18 – 36 |
| Average TOI | 16:30 | 15:30 – 17:30 |
The Contract Context
Gauthier enters the final year of his entry-level contract, carrying a $950,000 cap hit. Evolving Hockey models value him closer to $4 million, creating about $3 million in surplus value. For a rebuilding team like Anaheim, this is a crucial year. They are still benefitting from his bargain contract, but the clock is ticking before his restricted free agency negotiations in 2026.
If he produces around 50 points while establishing chemistry with Carlsson, he could set himself up for a long-term extension as Anaheim’s cornerstone winger.
Ceiling vs. Floor
Our simulation shows a median outcome of 24 goals and 52 points. His floor, based on low-end ice time or shooting regression, is in the mid-40s. His ceiling, if he finds top-unit power-play time and maintains a high shot volume, creeps into the 60-point range.
While his defensive game still needs development, his offensive toolkit is already NHL-ready. For Anaheim, this year is about translating that into consistent production in a bigger role.
Final Word
Cutter Gauthier’s 2025–26 projection points to a breakout sophomore campaign. With Carlsson as his centre, his shot volume should spike, and a 25-goal, 50-point season is within reach. On his bargain contract, he gives the Ducks elite surplus value while hinting at his future as Anaheim’s go-to scoring winger.
If Anaheim’s rebuild is to accelerate, Gauthier becoming a true finisher on the top line is one of the biggest levers the team can pull.
Cutter Gauthier had 20-24—44 (82 GP) in 2024-25 and etched his name on several @AnaheimDucks rookie lists. What will his sophomore season look like? #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/sQM1KM5ibR
— NHL Public Relations (@NHLPR) August 5, 2025
Main Photo Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
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