Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Utah Mammoth in Tampa, Florida. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions Lightning and Mammoth
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to watch: Utah16, The Spot
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
2025–26 Season Series: First-ever meeting
Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (32-14-4) return home to Amalie Arena to host the Utah Mammoth (27-20-4) in what qualifies as both a cross-conference matchup. The Bolts beat Utah 4-2 earlier this season. Coming off a string of wins, Tampa Bay fell 8-5 to the Columbus Blue Jackets in their last game. Jake Guentzel scored twice, Nikita Kucherov tallied a goal and three assists. Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel had two assists each. Jonas Johansson had 23 saves for Tampa Bay.
The Mammoth extended their winning streak to five games. Clayton Keller, Michael Carcone, Hayton and JJ Peterka scored in the 5-2 victory over the Nashville Predators on Saturday night. Karel Vejmelka made 27 saves for Utah.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay continues to oscillate between “unstoppable” and “mildly confusing,” but when they score three or more goals, they are a dominant 17-4-0 this season. That formula hasn’t changed. Nikita Kucherov remains the engine of the offence with 26 goals, 52 assists for a 78-point total. As a note, that’s a symmetrical pattern of 26s, for the math buffs here. Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli have provided strong two-way play, yet the Bolts’ goals per game has dipped to 3.48 from 3.50. That’s not a horrible problem to have when you can’t maintain almost four goals a game. Most teams would take three. Tampa’s power play has been efficient at home, and their puck movement tends to give inexperienced defensive units fits. That could matter against a franchise still ironing out its systems. Defensively, when Tampa limits turnovers in the neutral zone, they dictate tempo. When they don’t, things get interesting in ways Jon Cooper probably doesn’t enjoy. That said, their 2.56 goals against and their 84.1 penalty kill percentage are both 2nd-best in the league. Jon likes that (he’s a hard man to please.)
Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay
NHL Predictions believes Tampa’s path to victory is straightforward. Start fast since relatively new expansion teams can feed off early momentum. Tampa should snuff that out quickly and make them regret moving from Arizona. The Bolts need to stay disciplined. Utah’s power play has been opportunistic this season, especially on broken plays. The Bolts’ depth scoring with secondary contributors like Cirelli and Raddysh makes a difference. They all need to continue producing to prevent Utah from keying solely on Kucherov. If Tampa controls possession and forces Utah to chase, this game tilts heavily in the home team’s favour.
Utah Mammoth Outlook
For a recent expansion team, the Mammoth have been competitive more often than not. Their 27-20-4 record reflects a group learning how to close games, and developing an identity. They have not been road warriors. They are 12-13-2 away from home. Utah’s offence is paced by a young, speed-driven top six that thrives on transition chances. Dylan Guenther‘s 24 goals lead the team, followed by Nick Schmaltz and JJ Peterka with 18 goals each. The Mammoth are aggressive on the forecheck; they can disrupt even veteran defences. Their issue has been consistency. Strong first periods have too often been followed by quiet third frames. The Mammoth have given up 141 goals while scoring 163 for a +22 scoring differential. In net, Utah has received flashes of brilliance mixed with growing pains. Defensive structure has improved as the season has gone on, but road games against elite teams remain a tall tusk, I mean task.
Keys to Victory – Utah
NHL Predictions thinks Utah needs to embrace chaos. Score first, then maybe second and third. Tampa knows how to do that. Utah is noticeably better when playing with a lead. The need to limit odd-man rushes. Tampa feasts on mistakes faster than a Florida seagull at a beach picnic. If they can summon goaltending heroics, then by all means, do it. This is a game where Utah’s goalie needs to steal a period or two. If Utah can drag Tampa into a scrappy, lower-event game, they’ll have a puncher’s chance.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
This matchup features experience versus enthusiasm. Utah has shown they can hang with established teams, but Tampa’s depth, structure, and home-ice advantage give them the edge. The Mammoth may keep things interesting early, but over 60 minutes, Tampa’s polish should prevail.
Prediction: Lightning 5, Mammoth 2
Prop Bets of the Night
(Always check lineups and odds before placing any wagers.)
Lightning Team Prop – Over 3.0 Goals: Tampa’s offence tends to open up at home, especially against teams still learning NHL defensive discipline.
Final Thoughts
NHL Predictions expects flashes of excitement, a few “we’re still welcoming you to the league” moments from Tampa Bay, and at least one Mammoth player discovering that Amalie Arena gets very loud, very fast.
Main Photo: Peter Creveling-Imagn Images
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