Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Florida Panthers in Tampa, FL. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to watch: ESPN+, Hulu
Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
2025–26 Season Series: Tampa Bay 2, Florida 1
Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (36-14-4) host their always-annoying in-state rivals, the Florida Panthers (28-24-3), in what has become one of the NHL’s most reliably chaotic Atlantic Division matchups. Tampa is coming off a historic 6-5 shootout win over the Boston Bruins in the Stadium Series, a game played outdoors in Florida. Let that sink in. Luckily, it was cold out. They followed up with a 4-3 shootout win against the Buffalo Sabres. Florida, meanwhile, dropped its fourth in a row to the same Buffalo Sabres team. They definitely are looking to make a statement heading into the Olympic break.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa’s season has been a familiar mix of brilliance and brash moments. When the Lightning score at least three goals, they’re a dominant 17-4-0 — a stat that feels less like analytics and more like common sense. Nikita Kucherov (29 goals, 61 assists) continues to drive the offence. Jake Guentzel (25 goals, 34 assists) is second on the team in points, which is still 31 points behind Kucherov. Anthony Cirelli was injured in the Boston game. Defensively, Tampa still walks a tightrope. When they stay disciplined and keep playing in front of Vasilevskiy, they look dangerous. When they don’t, it becomes an audition tape for the opposing highlight reel.
Tampa Bay Lightning Keys to Victory
The key for the Bolts is to stay out of the penalty box. Florida’s power play can flip games faster than a bad line change, and Tampa doesn’t need to give them free auditions. Tampa also needs depth scoring to show up. Players like Darren Raddysh making noise allows Kucherov to breathe without carrying the entire offence on his back. Finally, defence. While the Bolts are second in goals against at 2.54 and 4th in penalty kill percentage, they can be cleaner in puck management through the neutral zone. Florida thrives on turnovers, and gifting them odd-man rushes is a bold strategy that has historically not worked.
Florida Panthers Outlook
The Panthers are built to frustrate opponents and enjoy every second of it. Led by Sam Reinhart (27 goals and 28 assists) and Sam Bennett (19 goals and 23 assists), Florida has been able to roll four lines that can score, hit, and annoy in equal measure. Florida’s offence averages just over three goals per game with Brad Marchand and Seth Jones on IR. Its forecheck remains relentless. Reinhart has been particularly effective this season, continuing his trend as one of the league’s most underrated finishers. Defensively, consistency is the buzzword. When they limit rush chances and keep games structured, they look like a playoff lock. When they don’t, chaos creeps in. Somehow, they are seventh with a 82.6% penalty kill, but have a 3.27 goals-against average, which is 25th in the league.
Florida Panthers Keys to Victory
The key for Florida is to dictate tempo early. When the Panthers score first, they’re far more comfortable leaning into their physical, grinding style. Winning board battles and clogging passing lanes will be critical against Tampa’s skill players. They’ll also want strong goaltending through the opening 20 minutes because nothing quiets Benchmark Arena faster than an early Florida lead, except maybe a lightning delay (wrong kind).
Prediction
This matchup checks every rivalry box: speed, skill, physical play, and at least one cheap shot that will be replayed angrily on social media. Tampa’s home ice and Vasilevskiy’s recent form give them a slight edge, but Florida never makes it easy.
Prediction: Lightning 4, Panthers 3 (OT)
Prop Bets
As always, check lineups and odds before placing any wagers.
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Lightning Team Total – Over 2.5 Goals: Tampa’s offence tends to show up at home, especially in rivalry games.
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Anytime Goal Scorer – Sam Reinhart: Reinhart remains Florida’s most consistent scoring threat and finds ways to get lost in coverage.
Final Thoughts
This Sunshine State showdown feels like a mid-season measuring stick for both teams. Tampa wants to prove that they can tighten things up defensively without sacrificing offence, while Florida aims to reinforce what it expects to have a Stanley Cup three-peat.
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Main Photo: Jeff Romance-Imagn Images