Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This NHL Prediction focuses on an interconference matchup at Madison Square Garden, where the Anaheim Ducks continue their road swing against a New York Rangers team still searching for consistency on home ice. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs New York Rangers
2025–26 Season Series: First meeting (2024-25 Season Series: Ducks 1 – 1 Rangers)
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time (ET); 4:00 p.m. Pacific Time (PT)
How to Watch: U.S. TV: Victory+, MSG, KCOP-13 | Canada TV: SN, SN+
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks (19–12–1) arrive in Manhattan after a frustrating 4–1 loss to the New Jersey Devils that exposed some lingering issues around net-front defence and second-chance generation. While Anaheim controlled large stretches of that game territorially, their inability to convert interior looks allowed New Jersey to settle into a disciplined structure early. As a result, the Ducks have now dropped back-to-back games.
Meanwhile, the New York Rangers (16–13–4) are coming off a dramatic overtime comeback win against the Montreal Canadiens. After falling behind 3–0, New York showed resilience, rallying behind J.T. Miller’s two-goal night. That game encapsulated much of New York’s season. Their ability to generate offence off second chances and power-play movement remains a strength, particularly through J.T. Miller and Artemi Panarin. At the same time, five-on-five control has been inconsistent, and injuries along the blue line have thinned their margin for error. Without Adam Fox, the Rangers rely more heavily on goaltending and situational execution, making game flow and special teams central to how they manage matchups against faster transition teams like Anaheim.
Trouba and Kreider Return to Madison Square Garden
This will be Jacob Trouba and Chris Kreider’s first game back at Madison Square Garden since being traded, which naturally adds some extra attention to the matchup. Both were long-time fixtures in New York. Trouba handled tough defensive minutes for years and served as team captain, and Kreider was a constant around the net on the power play and in big moments. Seeing them on the other bench will feel strange for a crowd that watched them anchor the lineup for a long time. For Anaheim, the return doesn’t change the game plan, but it does add energy early. Trouba and Kreider know the building and what it’s like to play in front of that crowd, while the Rangers know their tendencies, just as well. Any emotion should fade quickly. After the opening shifts, this game will settle into something more familiar, where structure and execution matter more than the storyline.
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim continues to lean on speed through the neutral zone and controlled entries from its top six. Leo Carlsson anchors the offence, driving play through the middle while maintaining strong shot and expected-goal involvement. Cutter Gauthier and Troy Terry remain effective off the rush, but the Ducks’ overall offensive output has lagged behind possession metrics due to inconsistent net-front finishing. At five-on-five, Anaheim sits above 51 percent in shot share but below 49 percent in expected-goal share, highlighting a gap between volume and quality.
Defensively, the Ducks remain vulnerable around the crease. Their high-danger chance share sits below 48 percent, and breakdowns off extended zone time have been costly. Lukas Dostal is expected to start, and while his underlying numbers remain solid, Anaheim’s margin for error narrows significantly when structure slips. For the Ducks, dictating tempo is essential. When pace slows, their defensive weaknesses become harder to hide.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Troy Terry with 06:42 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Leo Carlsson.New Jersey: 0Anaheim: 1#ANAvsNJD #NJDevils #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-12-13T18:11:06.756157Z
New York Rangers Storyline
New York’s profile is built around quality rather than volume. Despite ranking below 50 percent in overall shot share, the Rangers generate a strong proportion of high-danger chances, particularly off cycle plays and broken coverage in the slot. Artemi Panarin remains the primary offensive driver, while J.T. Miller’s recent surge has added interior scoring punch. However, Adam Fox’s absence continues to loom large. Without him, New York struggles to exit cleanly, leading to prolonged defensive-zone shifts.
Jonathan Quick is likely to start this one, who has historically performed well against Anaheim dating back to his Kings tenure. While Igor Shesterkin is the number one, Quick’s recent and historical usage against the Ducks suggests this is a matchup-driven decision. At home, the Rangers have improved marginally, but consistency remains elusive. Their success hinges on limiting rush chances and forcing Anaheim into low-percentage perimeter play.
Power play goal for New York!Scored by J.T. Miller with 02:04 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck.New York: 5Montreal: 4#MTLvsNYR #NYR #GoHabsGo
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-12-14T03:11:43.694012Z
The Model
The blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four evenly weighted inputs. The in-house model gives New York a 52.5 percent edge, driven by its advantage in high-danger chance share and defensive finishing. MoneyPuck projects the Rangers at 61.0 percent, largely influenced by goaltending and home-ice effects. Advanced Hockey Stats lists New York at 51 percent, reflecting a tighter territorial matchup. The betting market leans Rangers at approximately −130. After blending all inputs, the Rangers land at 55.3 percent with fair odds near −124. Anaheim settles at 44.7 percent with fair odds around +124. The market price is slightly inflated toward New York but remains within a reasonable range given matchup context.
NHL Prediction
Anaheim has the speed and transition game to stress a Rangers defence still adjusting without its top puck-mover. However, New York’s ability to generate quality looks in tight areas and its edge in net-front finishing tilt the balance. If the Rangers can avoid extended neutral-zone turnovers and allow Quick clear sightlines, they should control the most dangerous moments of the game. Expect a competitive contest where finishing and second-chance goals prove decisive rather than shot volume.
Prediction: Rangers win 4–3 (55.3% probability)
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 6-7 (Just as intended. let the Gen Z jokes begin)
Prop Bets of the Night
Tonight’s prop card leans into playmaking and matchup exposure rather than raw shot volume. Leo Carlsson over 0.5 assists (+115) is a strong option, as Anaheim continues to generate its best offence through controlled entries and second-touch creation. Carlsson’s involvement remains high even in lower-volume games, and New York’s defensive structure can struggle to close passing lanes quickly. On the Rangers side, Will Cuylle over 0.5 points (+135) offers value based on role and environment. His minutes alongside New York’s top play drivers have increased, and his ability to capitalize on broken coverage makes him a threat in transition-heavy games.
2025–26 Season Betting Record: 16–13 (+5.53 units)
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Main Photo: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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