Welcome back to the penultimate edition of Olympic hockey predictions here at Last Word On Hockey, where we have been covering the men’s ice hockey tournament at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics. Today’s focus shifts to the bronze medal game, where Finland faces Slovakia with hardware on the line and pride at stake. Be sure to check back later today for our Gold Medal Game predictions featuring the United States and Canada.
Olympic Hockey Predictions featuring Finland vs Slovakia
Date & Time: Saturday, February 21, 2:40 PM ET
Game: Bronze Medal
How to Watch – US TV: Peacock | Canada TV: CBC, CBC Gem
Venue: Santagiulia Arena in Milan, Italy
Setting the Stage
The Gold Medal will be decided Sunday. However, Saturday still matters. Finland and Slovakia both fell short in the semifinals and now must reset quickly. Finland nearly upset Canada before surrendering two late goals in a 3–2 loss. Meanwhile, Slovakia was overwhelmed 6–2 by the United States after an undisciplined performance.
These teams have history in this tournament. Slovakia defeated Finland 4–1 in the opening game of group play. That result helped Slovakia win Group B. However, Finland has been steadier since that loss. The Finns tightened defensively, earned the number-four seed, and pushed the tournament favourite to the brink.
This is not a consolation prize. It is still an Olympic medal.
Finland Storyline
Finland’s identity has not changed. They defend in layers, protect the middle of the ice, and trust Juuse Saros to handle the rest. Against Canada, that structure held for most of the night. However, late defensive breakdowns and playing most of the game in their own zone proved costly.
Offensively, Finland does not rely on one superstar. Instead, they generate pressure through balance and puck support. Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, and Mikael Granlund have driven possession throughout the tournament. Furthermore, Finland’s transition defence limits rush chances, which matters against a Slovak team that prefers speed.
The key for Finland is emotional recovery. They led a semifinal deep into the third period. Now they must channel that frustration into discipline rather than hesitation.
Slovakia Storyline
Slovakia’s tournament has been volatile but fun. They opened by beating Finland, handled Germany in the quarterfinals, and then unravelled against the United States. Five penalties in the semifinal disrupted their rhythm and exposed defensive gaps.
Juraj Slafkovsky leads the offence with eight points and remains their primary catalyst. Additionally, the Slovak blue line activates aggressively in transition. That style can overwhelm teams that struggle with speed.
However, discipline is the swing factor. If Slovakia chases hits or retaliates physically, Finland’s structured power play will capitalize. If they stay composed, this becomes a tight, low-event game decided by execution.
Prediction Inputs
The Olympic hockey predictions lean toward Finland. HockeyStats gives the Finns roughly a 78 percent win probability. The Athletic gives Finland a 76 percent chance to win. Meanwhile, market pricing reflects that confidence. Finland sits between -270 and -300 on the moneyline, with Slovakia around +220 to +240. The total is posted at 5.5.
Finland’s projected goal output hovers around the mid-four range, while Slovakia sits closer to the mid-two range. However, bronze medal games often tighten defensively. Both teams understand what one mistake can cost.
Finland owns the goaltending edge. Slovakia owns the volatility edge. Structure versus speed will decide this game.
Olympic Hockey Prediction
Finland should control possession and limit clean entries. Slovakia will generate moments off transition, but sustained offensive-zone time will be limited. A late empty-net goal secures bronze for the Finns.
Prediction: Finland wins 3–1
Best Bets
Finland -1.5 (+100) is good value. If Finland dictates pace, the puck line becomes viable. A one-goal margin likely invites an empty-net opportunity. Under 5.5 (-130 range) is also enticing. Both teams understand the stakes. Expect controlled breakouts and limited risk once a lead is established. Juraj Slafkovsky anytime goal (+170) is worth a look. The most prolific goal scorer of the last two Olympics at plus odds?
Lineup Disclaimer: Projected line combinations and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please verify official lineups prior to placing any wagers.
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Main photo credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images