The New York Islanders finished a disappointing 2024-25 season on a positive note by winning the NHL Draft Lottery. They were able to draft defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the first overall pick. This turned what could have been a lost season into an offseason filled with optimism, as Islanders fans hope that newly appointed general manager Mathieu Darche can quickly retool an aging roster and avoid a complete rebuild. Expectations for the 2025-26 season are more subdued, but with a likely weak Metropolitan Division, the Islanders might surprise some if things go their way this season.
When you say things go right for the Islanders, it starts with overall team health. Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Anthony Duclair and Adam Pelech have all dealt with serious injuries in recent years, and if that continues into the 2025-26 season, it will be a long one for the Islanders and their fans. Last season was a particularly difficult one on the injury front, and there are no guarantees that this season will be any different. Obviously, the Islanders hope it will be, and if they do, they have a high-reward roster, particularly in the players mentioned earlier.
NHL.com projects both Horvat and Barzal to surpass 65 points, which is reasonable since both players have maintained that range consistently over the past decade. Horvat is expected to reach 65 points after recording 57 points last season in 81 games (28 goals and 29 assists). Horvat has exceeded 50 points in seven of the past nine years and is likely to do so again unless he suffers a serious injury.
Barzal, on the other hand, is recovering from a frustrating year last season, when he scored just six goals and 14 assists in 30 games. He has reached the 80-point mark twice in his career and has recorded 50 points in six of the last eight years. He is projected for 67 points, which would be a solid rebound for the 28-year-old.
One other forward who will be looking to turn the page on last season is Duclair. The 30-year-old was brought in to be a fixture in the Islanders’ top six, but hardly delivered with only seven goals and four assists in 44 games. By the end of the season, he was being left out of the lineup, which is hardly what he or New York were hoping for when he signed a four-year, $14MM contract on July 1st, 2024. Duclair eventually took a leave of absence in early April after his struggles on the ice and recently spoke about it, saying he is excited to play next season and looking forward to bouncing back. For Duclair, it wouldn’t be the first time he’s had to rebound from a tough season, as his career has seen its share of ups and downs. Duclair was non-tendered by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2018 as a 22-year-old after a couple of trades and disappointing results. He later signed for the league minimum with Columbus and managed to turn around his fortunes in Ottawa before breaking out with the Florida Panthers. Duclair has played for eight NHL teams and will surely be motivated next season to improve his game.
Speaking of a turnaround, many might argue that the Islanders want more for their netminder, Ilya Sorokin, but it’s hard to blame him for last season’s disappointing outcome. Sorokin was quite good for New York, and although his traditional stats declined with a career low save % of .907, his underlying numbers stayed strong as he posted a +17.4 goals saved above expected (as per MoneyPuck). The 30-year-old goaltender has been a workhorse for the Islanders, playing in over 50 games each of the past four seasons, but it isn’t fair to expect him to perform at his 2022-23 level every year. Sorokin remains a top netminder in the league, and if the Islanders can provide him with some offensive support, they should be alright.
Finally, we return to Schaefer and what to expect from this year’s first overall pick. Islanders management hopes and believes that Schaefer could become the player who defines the Islanders for the next two decades, and there is good reason for that. However, whether he will start making a significant impact remains to be seen. Schaefer will undoubtedly receive a lengthy look in the preseason, and management will almost certainly be seeking a spark from the talented youngster as they try to ignite a blueline that was ravaged by injuries last season and lost their top d-man, Noah Dobson, in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens. With Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Alexander Romanov all returning, the Islanders have room for Schaefer, and he could be the piece that unlocks their path back to the playoffs.
It’s also possible that Islanders management decides that another year in the OHL is the best course of action for Schaefer, but that will almost certainly follow a lengthy assessment period and possibly a regular-season audition.
Overall, the Islanders enter this season with cautious optimism. They aren’t a Stanley Cup contender, and they’ve approached the summer as such, trading away a top defenseman while making low-risk signings like forward Jonathan Drouin to bolster their depth. They are right in the middle of a retool, injecting youth into their lineup while keeping many of their veterans and even adding a couple. If things go their way, they could find themselves among the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference come April. However, if the veterans who struggled last year don’t bounce back and injuries pile up again, they might end up with a similar result to this season, but without the prize at the end of the road.
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