Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Ottawa Senators. Don’t forget to check out all the action, as our writers continue throughout the 2025-26 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators
2024-25 Season Series: Islanders Won 2-1
U.S TV: MSGSN; ESPN+
Canada TV: TSN 5
Time: 3 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
This matchup features two Eastern Conference opponents going head-to-head. Neither team is exactly setting the world on fire out of the gate this season. The Islanders, however, are slightly worse off so far, but only by a game. New York is holding down last place in the NHL’s Metropolitan Division with a record of 1-3 through the first four games.
The Senators, having played one more game, are 2-3 through their first five games. This has them sitting in sixth in the Atlantic Division early on in the new campaign. Plenty of time for both teams to make some headway. These in Conference games hold more weight in the long run, even this early in the season, so both teams will want these two points. This will be the first of three matchups between these two. The first one is taking place at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, they come into this game after picking up their first win in the last game. This came from a 4-2 win over the Edmonton Oilers. The stars came to play in this one, with Bo Horvat recording a hat-trick. This catapulted him into the team lead for points with five points in four games. Mathew Barzal also scored his first goal of the season and picked up an assist as well in the contest. These two connected on a power-play goal as that unit looks to get back on track. Despite the four-goal performance, the team still ranks 22nd in the league with 2.75 goals per game. They will look to lean on their stars to improve that figure.
Defensively, for the Islanders they will look to tighten things up in their own end. They only allowed two goals in the last game, but the Oilers had 33 shots on goal. The Islanders also lead the league in high-danger shots allowed with 15 in just four games. That may be easier said than done with Alexander Romanov missing practice due to maintenance. They will see how he feels and if he can play today. That would be a big loss for an already struggling defensive team. Matthew Schaefer continues to impress and make an impact with a point in every game so far. He was even moved to the top power play unit and provided a helper on a goal with the man advantage.
In the net for the Islanders will be Ilya Sorokin, looking to bounce back after a rough start. He is 0-3 with an .854 save percentage and 4.18 goals against. This comes after his backup David Rittich started and won his first game as an Islander. If the Islanders want to win, they will need their franchise goalie to get back on track.
The Senators Story
The Senators snapped a three-game losing streak in their last game. This came in a 4-3 shootout win over the Seattle Kraken. Ottawa features a middle- of- the- pack offence, ranking 17th in the league with 3.00 goals-per-game. They have scored four goals in back to back games. Underlying numbers indicate they could be better as they are fourth in expected goals at 55.53%. Led by Shane Pinto and his six goals and seven points already in five games. Other key contributors are top six forwards Dylan Cozens and Claude Giroux who both have four points in five games.
Defensively is where the weakness is. They have allowed four or more goals in three of their last four games. Highlighted by eight goals allowed against the Buffalo Sabres and six against the Florida Panthers. This has them near the bottom of the league in 31st with 5.00 goals-against-per-game. One bright spot is the young 23-year-old offensive defenders in Jake Sanderson. He has been point per game with five in five games which is second on the team. With their defensive struggles, the goaltending has suffered. Starter Linus Ullmark and backup Leevi Merilainen have both not been great to start this season. No goalie has been confirmed but Ullmark would be the likely choice. He is 2-2 with an .862 save percentage and 3.72 goals against.
Prediction
This game feels like an even matchup. Two middling offensive teams with struggles defensively. The edge offensively goes to Ottawa, they average slightly more goals per game than the Islanders. The Senators have the home ice advantage. However we feel that Sorokin is due to have a bounce back after a game off to get right. Ottawa has been susceptible to allowing blow up games where the other team scores five plus goals. It has already happened twice to them this season. We feel like the Islanders will be able to keep their momentum and snag their second win in Ottawa.
Prediction: Islanders win 4-3
Prop Bets
Popular sportsbooks have the Islanders as the underdogs in this game. We feel like this is a good value bet at +120. The over/under is set at 5.5 and with the defensive struggles of both teams, we like the over at -134.
As far as any-time goal scorers go, Bo Horvat is coming off a hat trick, look for him to keep the hot stick going. His anytime goal scorer odds are at +195. For the Senators, take Shane Pinto at +250. The man has six goals already and will look to keep his hot start going.
Main photo by: Dennis Schneidler-Imagn Images
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