Welcome back to another round of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Edmonton Oilers. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Edmonton Oilers
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: ESPN+, HULU
2024-25 Season Series: Oilers Won 2-0
This matchup features two out-of-conference opponents who have had opposite starts through the season. The Islanders, still looking for their first win of the new season. They are 0-3 and sit dead last in the Eastern Conference’s Metropolitan Division. On the other hand, the Oilers have started well. They are 2-0-1 and stand second in the Western Conference’s Pacific Division, only behind the Vegas Golden Knights. This will be the first of just two matchups between these teams, this game taking place on Long Island inside UBS Arena.
The Islanders’ Story
For the Islanders, nothing has gone right so far this season as they have yet to win a game or even pick up a point in their first three games. The good news is that it is still early, so hopefully they can get back on track. A big culprit for this has been a lack of goal scoring, which has plagued this team for years. Their 2.33 goals per game rank 27th in the league and won’t cut it. They will look to their star players to contribute anything. Mathew Barzal has one point, and captain Anders Lee has yet to record one in the three games. In an attempt to spark the offence, coach Patrick Roy has already shuffled the lines. These changes see Anthony Duclair move up to the second line to play with Barzal, while Lee moves down to the third line.
As bad as the offence has been, their defence has, somehow, been worse. They rank 30th in goals against with 4.33 per game. A big contributor to that has been an awful penalty kill, reverting right back to last season. Their PK unit is 26th in the league at 70%. The one bright spot on the blue line is rookie Matthew Schaefer. He has immediately made an impact, looking the part of a regular NHL player. He’s recorded three points in three games, tied for the team lead in points.
Goaltender Ilya Sorokin has been rough to start this season, just like everyone else on the team. He has allowed a couple of weak goals that he would normally save. However, with the Islanders tied for second in the league in high-danger shots allowed at 11, he hasn’t had that much of a chance to save a lot of them. Due to this rough start, coach Roy is deciding to give him a rest in the next game. The Islanders will turn to backup David Rittich, who will make his first start as an Islander.
The Oilers’ Story
The Oilers come into this game riding a two-game win streak in what has been a nice start to their season. Their offence only ranks 23rd in the league at 2.67 goals per game. However, with the two big guns leading the way, they can explode on any given night. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are two of the league’s best and lead their team in points early on. McDavid with four points and Draisaitl with three in the first three games. This dynamic duo is always scary whenever they touch the ice and can hurt you anytime. These two playing together make for a dangerous first line, both at five-on-five and on the power play.
On top of that dangerous duo on offence, defensively, they have been lights out as well. Coming off a shutout in the last game, they rank first in goals against with just 1.33 per game. It is still early, but those numbers are impressive even in a small sample size. A top-10 penalty kill goes a long way in that; they are ranked 10th at 88.9%. Their goaltending tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have both played well, too. The starter Skinner had the shutout in the last game, so he will probably get the start. However, no goalie has been confirmed yet.
Prediction
This game feels like a mismatch of sorts for the Islanders. New York has struggled to produce goals; the Oilers are tops in the league as far as goals against. Edmonton has two of the top offensive players in the league against one of the worst defensive teams in the league thus far. The Islanders don’t have the offensive star power to match goals with McDavid and Draisaitl. They also don’t have the shutdown defence to keep the puck out of their own net. With the Islanders also rolling out their backup goalie, the Oilers have the advantage between the pipes as well. We think all this adds up to the Islanders still searching for their first win after this game.
Prediction: Oilers win 4-2
Prop Bets
Popular sports books have the Oilers as the rightful favourites. You can get their moneyline at -172. The over/under is set at 5.5. Considering the Oilers and their offensive firepower, paired with the Islanders’ defensive woes and a backup goalie, we like the over at -132. As far as any-time goal scorers go, Matthew Barzal has got to break through at some point; the team’s star needs to show up. We think he will; his anytime goal is at +275. For Edmonton, McDavid has yet to score this season. We think he changes that in this one. His odds are at +140 for a goal.
Main Photo: Thomas Salus- Imagn Images
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The post NHL Predictions: Oct. 16 New York Islanders Vs Edmonton Oilers appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.