NHL Predictions: December 23rd Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs

As the Toronto Maple Leafs get set to face the Pittsburgh Penguins, this matchup feels like a must-win given where Toronto sits in the Eastern Conference standings. The Leafs are running out of runway and can’t afford to let winnable points slip away. Meanwhile, the Penguins remain a veteran team that knows how to take advantage of mistakes. The Maple Leafs’ urgency should tilt heavily in the Leafs’ favour. Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions with Last Word On Hockey. Today, it’s Leafs vs Penguins.

NHL Predictions: Maple Leafs vs Penguins and What to Watch

2025–26 Head-to-Head: Maple Leafs 2-0 Penguins

Time: 4:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)

How to Watch: Sportsnet Ontario, ESPN+, TNT

Penguins Lean on Experience and Structure

The Pittsburgh Penguins enter this matchup doing what they’ve done for years. That is, relying on structure, experience, and star power to stay competitive. Sidney Crosby remains the engine of this team, setting the tone every night with his work ethic and two-way play. Veterans like Erik Karlsson or Kris Letang may not be at their peak anymore, but they’re still capable of punishing mistakes when given time and space.

Pittsburgh isn’t a fast team, but they’re a smart one. They thrive when opponents get sloppy through the neutral zone or try to force plays offensively. The Penguins will look to slow the game down, limit rush chances, and make Toronto work for everything. If the Leafs get careless with the puck, Pittsburgh will capitalize.

The Story for the Maple Leafs is Urgency is Non-Negotiable

For Toronto, there are no excuses left. The Leafs are at the bottom of the Atlantic Division and continue to lose ground in the Stanley Cup Playoff race. Effort, execution, and accountability all need to show up from the opening faceoff.

The spotlight is firmly on the Leafs’ core. Auston Matthews needs to drive play and dictate the game offensively. William Nylander has to clean up the turnovers and re-engage physically. John Tavares and Morgan Rielly must provide steady leadership in tough road conditions. Against a disciplined Penguins team, one-dimensional hockey won’t be enough, you need to power through.

Special teams could play a major role. Toronto’s power play has struggled badly this season, but Pittsburgh’s penalty kill has shown cracks. If the Leafs get chances with the man advantage, they need to simplify and convert. At five-on-five, Toronto must play a direct game, pucks to the net, traffic in front, and no unnecessary risks at the bluelines.

Defensively, limiting Crosby’s line is priority number one. That means tight gaps, strong support down low, and avoiding extended defensive-zone shifts. In goal, Toronto doesn’t need perfection. Moreover, they simply need composure and timely saves. However, this is a good chance to add our disclaimer. Please check social media for the very latest lineup news before locking in your daily fantasy rosters.

NHL Prediction

Final Score Prediction: Maple Leafs win 4–3

This game should be tight, but desperation often reveals who really wants it. If Toronto plays with urgency and discipline, they have enough talent to outscore Pittsburgh. The Penguins will make it uncomfortable, but this feels like a game where the Leafs finally respond.

Anything less than two points would be another damaging setback for a team already running out of time.

Best Betting Angles:

• Moneyline: Maple Leafs to win

• Total Goals: Take the Over on 6.0

• Player Prop: Auston Matthews anytime goal. Dude is a sniper, let it rip.

• Total Estimated Payout: +380

Main Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images