Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This NHL Prediction focuses on two Calder Trophy favourites facing each other, as the Anaheim Ducks visit Long Island. Do not forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs New York Islanders
2025–26 Season Series: First meeting this season (2024-25 Season Series: Ducks 2 – 0 Islanders)
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST); 4:00 p.m. Pacific Time (PT)
How to Watch US TV: Victory+, MSGSN, KCOP-13; ESPN+ Canada TV: SN+
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks (19–10–1) arrive on Long Island riding a three-game winning streak and a surge of confidence after stealing a 4–3 win in Pittsburgh. Beckett Sennecke’s short-handed tying goal with 0.1 seconds left cemented his growing legend, and Ville Husso’s 44 saves steadied a group that still plays in high-event environments. Meanwhile, the New York Islanders (17–11–3) continue to grind out results under head coach Patrick Roy. They staged a comeback of their own in a 5–4 shootout win over the Vegas Golden Knights, powered by two goals from Bo Horvat and a composed performance from Ilya Sorokin. Both teams enter with momentum, but their paths to that momentum differ in style and structure.
Short-handed goal for Anaheim!Scored by Beckett Sennecke with 00:01 remaining in the 3rd period.Pittsburgh: 3Anaheim: 3#ANAvsPIT #LetsGoPens #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-12-10T02:41:41.794865Z
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim’s momentum continues to grow. Sennecke’s rise, Leo Carlsson’s constant creation, and Troy Terry’s scoring touch give the Ducks top-end finishing that outperforms their expected goal share. Their five-on-five play remains slightly above even, and their offence ranks among the league’s most productive. However, defensive lapses still appear. Their high-danger control sits below 50 percent, and their penalty kill continues to lag. Husso’s performance in Pittsburgh arrived at the perfect time. Meanwhile, the Ducks have found consistency in their forward depth. Carlsson’s line tilts the ice, and the Gauthier–McTavish–Sennecke trio brings speed that will challenge an Islanders defence that prefers to sag rather than chase. Anaheim plays faster than New York, and that stylistic contrast shapes tonight’s matchup.
New York Islanders Storyline
The Islanders have settled into a rhythm where resilience defines their identity. They fell behind 2–0 to the Golden Knights yet pushed back through Horvat’s scoring touch and Sorokin’s stabilising presence. Their metrics remain mixed. They sit below water in shot and chance shares, yet their goaltending keeps them competitive. Sorokin’s .910 save percentage across 21 games remains a major equaliser, and their penalty kill ranks inside the league’s top group. However, their ability to control pace remains inconsistent, as they still concede long cycles and extended zone time. Their offence relies heavily on Horvat, Mathew Barzal, and the quick-strike play of wingers like Emil Heineman. Even so, they hold structure well at UBS Arena and force opponents into predictable shot lanes.
Power play goal for New York!Scored by Bo Horvat with 09:45 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Mathew Barzal and Max Shabanov.New York: 4Vegas: 3#VGKvsNYI #Isles #VegasBorn
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-12-10T02:31:41.970207Z
The Model
The blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four inputs. The in-house projection incorporates share metrics, recent form, and Anaheim’s improved finishing talent. MoneyPuck lists the Islanders at 58.2 percent. Advanced Hockey Stats gives New York 54 percent at home. The market also leans toward the Islanders with the latest line settling near −133. Anaheim receives a modest bump from its rush creation and scoring efficiency, but its high-danger deficit narrows the gap. Across all simulations, New York lands at 54.3 percent with fair odds near −119. Anaheim sits at 45.7 percent with fair odds near +119.
NHL Prediction
New York enters with the stronger model profile thanks to steadier defensive layers and Sorokin’s ability to erase breakdowns. Anaheim still brings the more dynamic rush game, and its top-six finishing keeps the margins tight in fast-paced environments. However, the Islanders thrive in matchups where they can slow play below the hashmarks and funnel attempts to the outside. Anaheim’s path comes through controlled entries and quick-strike sequences, especially if Carlsson and Sennecke can force New York’s defenders into early pivots. The model leans toward the Islanders, yet Anaheim’s recent momentum and creativity give them a credible edge in a matchup that should stay inside one goal. The Ducks hold a slight finishing advantage, and that remains the swing factor if this turns into a high-event game.
Prediction: Ducks win 3–2 (45.7% win probability)
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 5–6
Prop Bets of the Night
Tonight’s prop card targets situations that hold up regardless of game script. Mason McTavish over 2.5 shots (+145) is a steady option, as he continues to drive individual attempts even in lower-event stretches. His usage on the powerplay also boosts his volume against an Islanders penalty kill that concedes clean looks from the flanks. Meanwhile, consider Mathew Barzal over 0.5 points (-160). His playmaking remains the engine of New York’s controlled entries, and Anaheim’s defensive rotations can struggle when forced into extended east–west coverage. Both plays align with expected usage patterns and the pacing each team typically generates.
2025–26 Season Betting Record: 13–12 (+3.55 units)
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Main Photo: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
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