The Puck will drop on the New York Islanders 2025-26 season on Thursday Night. They will be taking on their rival Pittsburgh Penguins. Here at Last Word on Sports, we have been doing point projections for players around the league. The news dropped Monday that the number one overall pick, Matthew Schaefer, will start the season with the Islanders. We felt that this news promoted a point projection article for him. After turning 18 a month ago, he is now set to make his NHL debut on opening night.
What Role Will Matthew Schaefer Play?
Schaefer is leaping from the Ontario Hockey League straight to the NHL, which is a big adjustment. He scored 22 points (seven goals, five assists) in 17 games last season for the Erie Otters. He then suffered a broken clavicle on December 27th, playing for Team Canada in the Men’s Under-20 IIHF World Junior Championship. Despite this injury, the smooth-skating defenceman still went number one overall. This was thanks to his speed, offensive play-making abilities, and his strong defensive attributes.
The rookie defender is slated to skate on the third pair next to veteran Scott Mayfield. The vet will show him the ropes and help him out in his own zone. Mayfield’s stay-at-home style of play should allow for Schaefer to venture up the ice with the puck and break his team into the offensive zone. This partnership will also benefit Schaefer in the physical side of the game. Mayfield stands 6’5″ and is a massive physical presence for the Islanders’ lineup. That will help prevent this pairing from being pushed around in their own zone and in front of their net.
Schaefer is also slated to man the second power play unit. With him being the quarterback for this unit, this should allow him to display his passing and skating ability with a little extra ice. With how bad the special team was for this team last year, this could be the shot in the arm they needed.
Pro Comp and Point Projection
To help project Schaefer’s point total for this coming season, it will help to look at his pro comparisons. Coming into this year’s draft, Schaefer was being compared to the Dallas Stars defender Miro Heiskanen. Heiskanen, at 19 years old in his rookie campaign, was named an all-star. He played all 82 games, registering 33 points (12 goals, 21 assists) while averaging 23:07 in ice time. Another pro comp was superstar Quinn Hughes, the Vancouver Canucks. In his first full season at 20 years old, he played in 68 games and finished with 53 points (eight goals, 45 assists) in 21:53 of average ice time.
With these comparisons in mind, it makes it a little easier to project Schaefer’s rookie season. The point total may be hampered by a lack of playing time if he stays on the third pair. If he can earn his coach, Patrick Roy’s, trust, he may be able to move on up the ranks and earn more ice time. This could result in him being bumped up to the first power-play unit, which could also see a bump in his point production. With a lot of unknown about his role potentially expanding and his transition to the NHL. We will set his floor at 30-35 points and his ceiling at 55-60 points. If he can hit that ceiling, he could break the Islanders record for points by a rookie defenceman set by Stefan Persson. He had 56 points (six goals, 50 assists) back in the 1977-78 season.
If he plays a full season, a realistic projection for Schaefer would be:
Games Played: 82
Goals: 12-14
Assists: 33-35
Points: 47-49
Closing Thoughts
Regardless of Schaefer’s point totals this season, there is a lot to be excited about with this kid and his potential to be a great player in the league. Schaefer will also make history this season as just four No. 1 overall defenseman have played more than 10 games as 18-year-old rookies. Gord Kluzak (1982), Roman Hamrlik (1992), Aaron Ekblad (2014) and Rasmus Dahlin (2018). Schaefer should be the fifth. There will be a lot of eyeballs on him, as there usually is with a first overall pick. He has shown plenty of poise off the ice already, as he has dealt with the loss of his mother in February 2024 and his billet mom the previous December. So we think a little noise from fans or media should be no problem for this strong young man who will look to start his NHL career on the right foot.
Main Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
The post New York Islander Matthew Schaefer Point Projection for 2025-26 appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.