Auston Matthews’ 69-goal season in 2023-24 wasn’t just historic, it reset the entire scoring bar in the modern NHL. It was the most goals ever scored by a U.S.-born player and the highest total by a Toronto Maple Leaf in the salary-cap era. But since then, injuries, roster changes, and subtle dips in his underlying metrics have pulled him slightly off that pace. So the real question becomes, what does Matthews need to do to get back to that level and stay among the game’s deadliest goal scorers?
Shot Volume and Location are the Foundation of His Game
In 2023-24, Matthews averaged 4.56 shots per game, with more than 30% of those attempts coming from the high-danger “house” area (between the hash marks and in front of the crease). This year, that number has dipped to 3.90 shots per game, and more of his attempts are coming from the outside. Fewer interior looks mean fewer rebound chances, less chaos in front, that ultimately leads to fewer goals.
His career shooting percentage sits around 15.8%, which is elite. But no matter how good your release is, you can’t score 60 or 70 goals without volume and location working together. To get back to that territory, Matthews needs to get back inside the dots more often and push his shot volume above 4.3 per game.
Linemates and Chemistry, the New Reality Without Marner
Matthews’ linemates control everything, the pace of the rush, how quickly pucks are retrieved, how space opens up, and what resets look like after turnovers. This season, Matthews’ best linemates have been Matthew Knies and William Nylander.
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Knies brings size, straight-line speed, and net-front presence. He creates second chances and drags defenders into the crease.
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Nylander, stepping into Mitch Marner’s old spot, adds elite puck-carrying, shot volume, and a deceptive release. But he isn’t the same type of facilitator as Marner, he blends playmaking with attack mentality, rather than always distributing.
With Marner gone, Matthews isn’t just scoring, he’s also shouldering more of the setup work. Defenders can zero in on him without worrying about Marner slicing through seams. For this new top line to match last season’s success, each piece must form a fully independent scoring unit. That unit with Matthews drawing pressure, Knies crashing the net, and Nylander stretching the defence wide and striking off the pass.
This was obvious when Craig Berube moved Nylander to Matthews’ line in the third period against the Pittsburgh Penguins Monday night. In just over three minutes, the line exploded. Nylander scored twice and added an assist, while Matthews contributed a goal and an assist as they ripped off four goals. When they control the zone like that, Matthews’ shot totals and high-danger looks jump. When they’re hemmed in, shuffled, or playing reactively, his production dips, and the Leafs’ offence stalls.
What Has to Change
To make another run at 60+ (or even 70) goals, these three areas are non-negotiable:
1. Push Shot Volume Back Above 4.5 Per Game
The drop from 4.56 to 3.90 is the difference between elite and record-setting. Matthews needs more pucks on net, and fast.
2. Get Back Inside the “House”
His high-danger attempts dropping from 30% to around 25% is a major factor. More net-front looks, rebounds, and deflections are required.
3. Solidify Line Chemistry and Usage
Give Matthews and his linemates consistent minutes, PP1 reps, and late-game matchups. Let this line breathe, build chemistry, and force teams to adjust to them—not the other way around.
Why It Matters
When Matthews is at his best, the Leafs don’t just score more, they control games. His gravity opens ice for everyone else. When he attacks inside, everything changes. That means the power plays click, depth lines get space, and Toronto becomes nearly impossible to shut down for 60 minutes.
Final Thought
Auston Matthews is still one of the most dangerous goal scorers on the planet. To reclaim his 69-goal pace, he needs higher volume, more interior chances, and full chemistry with Nylander and Knies. If he finds that rhythm again, the Leafs don’t just become harder to play against; they become a legitimate Stanley Cup threat.
Main Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
The post Leaf Auston Matthews’ Pathway Back to Elite-Level Scoring and 69-Goals appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.