A fascinating trade because the main piece has high potential yet is so uninspiring.
We’ve entered the second-quietest part of the NHL calendar, with the biggest names — to the extent there were any “big” ones — off the UFA market and only the arbitration hearing calendar to keep the usual Canadian professional liars from tossing their phones in the lake at the ol’ cottage.
The Islanders do have Max Tsyplakov on the arbitration docket, so there’s that to look out for, but the chances of that going too off-market or turning into a Tommy Salo situation are slim.
Meanwhile, the biggest Isles move of the summer continues to intrigue will be a fascinating one for the next several years. The team that gets the best player usually “wins” a trade, but in the case of Noah Dobson, there is a cap allocation consideration as well as the unknown futures of the two players they drafted (plus Emil Heineman, we need to somehow factor in his potential contribution even if it will never match Dobson’s).
Interestingly, it’s one of those futures-for-present moves that is getting praise for both sides, though certainly more of that is going to the Canadiens. The “what the hell is this guy anyway?” wild card of Dobson at 25 is what makes it intriguing. If he’s going to be the massive star some are making him out to be, then the trade is a huge win for the Habs, hands down. And yet…while “defensemen take longer to develop” and all that, the truly great ones have shown their potential before 25.
The Athletic actually had a nice breakdown of how things look, and while it gave the typical “if you have a chance to get a guy like this, you take it” angle on the Canadiens, it also conceded the warts in Dobson’s game that have made some of us okay with this deal:
Defensemen get caught flat-footed and puck-watching all the time. Mistakes are bound to happen in a high-paced league filled with scoring threats. However, the number of errors from Dobson was concerning last year, especially for someone asking for such a sizable raise. Technically, he was on the ice for fewer shots and expected goals against at five-on-five this past year, compared to 2023-24. But his fingerprints were on more goals against, which made his errors all the more glaring.
I really don’t know if Dobson will ever figure it out to be a true all-world, two-way guy that Team Canada says has to be on their blueline, but I think the chances are pretty low that the Habs ever deeply regret this trade. With the cap rising, at minimum Dobson should be a flawed but still productive offensive blueliner.
I know Alex Pietrangelo had warts in his game at 21, 22, 23, but he also was farther on the star curve and more competent in his own end (and the PK) than Dobson well before 25. Pietrangelo would not have had Butch Goring diplomatically scratching his head on a weekly basis as he seemed to about “the Dobber.”
Drew Doughty is of course an unfair standard, but he basically arrived at 19 being mocked about his weight and then immediately showed he was a force before he hit age 20. Point being, the truly great ones identify themselves well before 25. They take over games and inspire you with thoughts of “Damn, we could win a CUP with this guy.”
Dobson is somewhere short of that.
At the other end of the high-potential/hype, low hockey-IQ spectrum are the American Johnsons, Erik and Jack (no relation, other than the frustration they exacted on fans). They had skills, yes they did. They had hype, that, too. They had long careers even. But never, ever did they instill the confidence that they could be a #1 on a contender, except among certain GMs who ended up not contending.
Dobson is somewhere above that. But for me these examples help contextualize the decision the Isles’ new regime faced coming in.
Until this year’s trade deadline, I always assumed Dobson would be a long-term Islander, though I did worry he would ultimately be in the bottom tier of the league’s #1 defensemen. As if other teams would say, “Oh, he’s your top guy? That’s swell, but I’m definitely not jealous.”
For that reason, the Isles trading Dobson instead of breaking the bank for him — the Habs GM claims he took less to go to Montreal — follows a certain logic.
However, then there’s also the other variables that will always be there for this asset allocation decision, and the ripple of what Lou left us: With a rising cap that should have allowed a splurge, the Isles only forced themselves into a tough choice among Dobson and Alex Romanov because they have Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield all signed for combined AAV of $15.4 million through the next four years (and for Pulock and Mayfield, five).
That’s not a ton for your top four in the projected 2025-2028 cap world if they’re truly top four, but each of these guys is showing mileage that affirms it’s not 2020 anymore.
Not Only, But Also
- This Isles fan visited every NHL arena, but the real takeaway here is calling Toronto’s Whatever-bank/tire Cent(e)r(e) “the MSG of Canada.” [Post]
- Rumored to be in their final season, Bridgeport announces “Sound Tiger” Saturdays. [THN]
- Anthony Beauvillier may be a rival now, but he’s still pumping Long Island’s tires as an unofficial ambassador to guys like Jonathan Drouin:
#Isles Forward Jonathan Drouin talked on #NHLTonight on @NHLNetwork about heading to Long Island! pic.twitter.com/L4kMUj0qFi
— New York Islanders (@NYIslanders) July 10, 2025