The Devils weren’t in a position to take a big swing for a Top Six scoring winger this offseason. When can they get there?
With a limited amount of cap space and several holes in the bottom six to fill, Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald opted to take the conservative, but smart approach of stretching his available free agency dollars as far as he could and sign a few depth forwards in Connor Brown and Evgenii Dadonov rather than make a push for one of the few big fish available this summer.
Those moves may have disappointed some Devils fans who were hoping they’d take a “big swing” on one of the few big name options that were available, but the reality is that most of those options never really became options for the Devils. Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Brad Marchand, and Sam Bennett never made it to July 1, and after seeing what JJ Peterka cost both in terms of contract and trade acquisition cost, he didn’t make a ton of sense either for the Devils as presently constructed. And even if they did, they didn’t really have the cap dollars available to take that type of swing.
Still, that doesn’t mean that Tom Fitzgerald has sat out of the star market entirely. There have been mixed reports on Nikolaj Ehlers, the Devils, and their supposed interest in said player, but according to David Pagnotta, the Devils “poked around” on him before he ultimately signed with Carolina. Elliotte Friedman mentioned the Devils as a potential destination for Marchand if he were to hit the market, which obviously never happened. One can interpret those reports however they want, but I don’t think the Devils were just hastily thrown out there to suggest that they made a cursory effort, even if it was unrealistic all along. I look at that, and I recall the Devils showing interest in both Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault last year, and I think there’s more to it than someone in the Devils leaking those nuggets out to tell the fanbase that “we tried”. I think they’d like to add another top-six forward if they could and the price is right.
The question is, when is the time right? The time hasn’t been right to this point of the offseason, and it remains to be seen what the price ultimately will be. There’s a lot of factors at play here and a lot to discuss on this particular topic of taking a big swing and if the Devils are positioned to do so, so let’s get into it.
A Refresher On Timo Meier, The Last “Big Swing” the Devils Took, and Why They Shouldn’t Be Gun-Shy to Pull the Trigger
In the leadup to the trade deadline a few seasons ago, the Devils took a big swing when they acquired Timo Meier from the Sharks in what I deemed at the time a blockbuster trade and one of the biggest moves for an external player that Tom Fitzgerald is going to make as long as he is the general manager of the Devils.
Meier finished the 2022-23 season with 9 goals and 5 assists in 21 games, was arguably one of the more impactful forwards in the Rangers series without registering a single point, and scored two goals and two assists in the playoff series loss to Carolina that year. He scored 28 goals and 24 assists the following year when he played through MCL injuries in both knees and underwent shoulder surgery at the end of the year. This past season, he scored 26 goals and 27 assists in 80 games and another 2 goals and 2 assists vs. Carolina in the playoffs.
Two and a half years later, Timo Meier has been mostly fine. But you want better than mostly fine when you make the kind of move to get Meier that the Devils did….especially when he’s now entering Year 3 of a long-term deal paying him $8.8M AAV and he’s the highest paid forward on the roster. Especially when he has the physical frame to play an abrasive style like Matthew Tkachuk, but is inconsistent in doing so. But I do think Meier has struggled to some extent to find his place in the Devils lineup under two different coaching staffs. He’s a high shot volume player who has shot less since he’s been in NJ, which is part of the reason his numbers are down, and he’s no longer part of their top PP unit. Last year was one of the worst shooting years of his career, so there may be some bounceback potential, especially if he remembers to score goals before March rolls around on the calendar this upcoming season.
Why do I bring all this up, though? Because I think there would be some who might argue that the Devils already pushed their chips in the middle with Meier, it didn’t quite work out as one would’ve hoped, and now they’re gunshy to pull the trigger on another big swing.
I think that line of thinking would be misguided and short-sighted.
Whether or not Meier lived up to the billing shouldn’t have any impact on whether or not the Devils should pursue Jason Robertson or Jordan Kyrou or whoever the next goal-scoring winger is that becomes available rolls along. Even if one believes the Devils made a mistake with the Meier deal, it shouldn’t stop them from making the next deal. Teams do make mistakes from time to time when it comes to acquiring players….just look at the Carolina Hurricanes-Mikko Rantanen era….but that didn’t stop them from not only moving on quickly but also spending a bunch of money on Ehlers this summer. If the Devils have the pieces to align with the Stars on a Robertson trade (and they do, they just don’t have the cap space) or another team on a trade for a star player, they should absolutely pull the trigger.
Despite arguments to the contrary, the Devils did not overpay for Meier in terms of trade acquisition. The 2023 26th overall pick, a 2024 2nd round pick, Shakir Mukhamadullin, Fabian Zetterlund, Nikita Okhotiuk, and Andreas Johnsson is not an egregious price to pay for a guy you identify as a difference making power forward, whether you are right or not. Mukhamadullin is a fine prospect and a first round pick is a first round pick, but that is a quantity over quality package comprised of lottery tickets and magic beans and I said as much when the deal was made. It’s not an overpay. If the acquisition cost to acquire someone like Robertson was similar, there is no doubt the Devils should pay that once again.
A Brief Look At Cap Space, Now and Into the Future
As of this writing, the Devils have $6,906,667 in cap space remaining, which is probably just enough to get Luke Hughes signed with some massaging the bottom of the roster. Options include carrying fewer than the maximum 23 players, starting the season with Johnathan Kovacevic on LTIR, or a trade of some sort. Chris touched on the various options a few days ago.
The Devils are projected to have $24,025,000 in cap space in 2026-27 with a salary cap ceiling of $104M. They’re also projected to have $62,125,000 in space the following year with a cap ceiling of $113.5M.
That sounds like a ton of space to work with, but those numbers do require some context.
Those numbers obviously don’t include whatever Luke Hughes’ next contract will come in at, but we know that won’t be a cheap number. Starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom is in the final year of his contract and the Devils will need to make a decision there one way or the other. Simon Nemec and Arseni Gritsyuk’s ELCs will be up after this season, and they’ll have a few depth forwards as well they’ll need to make decisions on forwards in Paul Cotter, Evgenii Dadonov, and Juho Lammikko. I won’t bother to list the players who will be out of contract after the 2026-27 season ends other than to mention that team captain Nico Hischier is among them and will need to be re-signed.
The Devils will have some flexibility via the trade market if they need to shed salary. Assuming Ondrej Palat is still around, the Devils should have an easier time moving him next summer with just one year left on his deal. Hamilton will have two years remaining, so if trading him was ever a conversation that happened behind the scenes, they should have an easier time there as well. Brenden Dillon’s full NTC becomes a 10-team no-trade list entering the final year of his deal, and Stefan Noesen’s NTC list goes from 10 teams to 7 teams.
Is The Next “Big Swing” Move Going to Be Quinn Hughes?
The short answer to this question is its tough to say.
Last month, I made the case that the Devils should trade for the oldest Hughes brother as soon as possible, assuming he is made available.
While I still believe the Devils should do that, Vancouver has continued to build their roster around their captain, as expected. They extended Thatcher Demko, Conor Garland, and re-signed Brock Boeser on July 1st. The deadline came and passed in regards to Elias Pettersson and his NMC kicking in on his long-term deal, so he remains a Canuck. And while Vancouver lost center Pius Suter as a UFA this offseason, they did pick up Evander Kane from the Oilers in a salary cap dump trade. At least for the 2025-26 season, the Canucks are trying to win.
But as I wrote last month, eventually, the situation with Quinn and his future in Vancouver and whether or not he wants to try to team up with his brothers in New Jersey is going to come to a head. The Canucks are going to have a pretty good idea come July 1st, 2026 whether or not Quinn wants to stay, as that is the first day they’re allowed to present him with a contract extension offer. And one would presume that if Quinn indicates he’s not willing to sign long-term, the Canucks might be at the point where they’re willing to make a deal rather than let Quinn walk as a UFA in 2027 for nothing.
With pretty much all of their future draft capital intact, a solid but not elite prospect pool, and NHL players who could be moved, the Devils are well positioned to strike at any point between now and then. And while we don’t know what Luke’s next contract will look like, one can assume that Quinn’s next deal will be in the running to reset the market for defensemen, particularly with the rising cap.
There Has To Be a Reason You’re Moving Out Ondrej Palat, Dawson Mercer or Dougie Hamilton
Chris touched on potentially trading one of these players when he wrote about making the math work on a Luke Hughes extension, and while I mostly agree with him, I did have a few things I wanted to add.
I’m not necessarily opposed to trading any of those players, but we are at the point of the offseason where the free agency market has mostly dried up. The few players who are left on the open market have major flaws or question marks surrounding their games, or they’re not very good to begin with.
I say that to say that while I would support trading Palat, what are you doing to replace him on the roster? Because at this time, the Devils don’t have an adequate replacement for what he brings to the table. There also isn’t anyone on the free agent market who is a better hockey player than him, even with Palat being a disappointment. To further this point, if the Devils had to play a hockey game tomorrow, Ondrej Palat would absolutely be in the Devils lineup no questions asked, and rightfully so. As much as we love the upside of guys like Lenni Hameenaho, they’re not better than Palat today. Palat might not be worth his contract, but he isn’t a net negative either.
If you’re moving out Dawson Mercer, what is your plan at 3C going forward? If you’re moving out Dougie Hamilton because you think you’re deep enough at RHD to get by, that’s fine, but what player(s) are you getting back to make that deal worth your while. Trading Mercer or Hamilton for futures doesn’t really make a ton of sense. Are you getting a 3C back in a Hamilton trade? Because if you are, it still limits how much money you have to make that big swing type of trade.
I think there’s an argument that the Devils would be, at worst, break even if they traded Palat, used a portion of those cap savings to close the difference on the Luke Hughes extension, and use the rest to take on a cap dump from another team (example: Evan Rodrigues). Maybe they’d even be slightly better overall as its really just more tinkering around the edges. But like I mentioned in the lead up to free agency, dumping Palat off on to another team doesn’t open up enough space to make that kind of “big swing” acquisition we’re talking about here. Neither does Mercer and that comes with the added question of if you move Mercer, what are you doing at 3C?
That brings us back to Hamilton and his name being out there on the market as Elliotte Friedman alluded to on 32 Thoughts.
Trading Hamilton doesn’t come without risks. We talked about those risks a month ago. But if the Devils did move Hamilton, they’d have roughly enough space to all of a sudden become players if a star forward was to become available right now, assuming they don’t take salary back which may prove to be a challenge considering Hamilton’s $9M AAV. But now you’re asking for the Devils to take futures from one team for Hamilton and flip other assets to another team to get that top forward. Possible? Yes. Realistic? Probably not. Are the Devils going to trade Hamilton without another deal lined up? Are they going to trade him and sit on $9M in cap space until the right player comes along when they’re arguably worse without him and they’re trying to win now? It’s something to think about.
I’m not saying the Devils can’t or won’t make a hockey trade if the opportunity presents itself and it makes sense. But when the two big contracts you’re looking to move out are Hamilton at $9M AAV for 3 years and Palat at $6M AAV for 2 years, both players have fairly restrictive trade clauses, and there’s only so many teams around the league that have that kind of cap space, the Devils aren’t really in a spot to perform major surgery on a roster for a player who may or may not even be available right now. As much as Palat might not be worth his $6M AAV, he’s still needed on the Devils roster right now until a suitable replacement comes along. Same goes for Mercer and likely Hamilton as well, although both Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey have a lot of work to do to show they’re ready to be NHL regulars. After all, we’re talking about players who couldn’t see the ice over Dennis Cholowski at points late last season.
Final Thoughts
I hate to use the term “patience” for a variety of reasons….Devils fans have certainly been patient enough through the rebuilding process, and I’m the same guy who wrote that Tom Fitzgerald’s patience might actually be a detriment to this team. And why should the Devils be any more patient than teams like Vegas, Florida, Toronto, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Carolina, or any other team that has shown a willing aggressiveness to pursue that type of “big swing” move to maybe put them over the top.
I think this is a situation where patience is probably the right move.
That doesn’t mean the Devils should punt on the season. Far from it. They should be better in Year 2 under Sheldon Keefe and this was already a team that was good enough to make the playoffs. Maybe with some better health luck with their top players, they’ll be in a better position to do something when they get there. Not to mention they have good young players who should continue to improve with more experience.
But their cap situation is what it is, and even if they find someone to take Palat off of their hands, that doesn’t do enough to bring in the type of player we’re talking about. Even if you move an NHL player off the roster, you still have to replace said player on the roster. Sifting through the bargain bin of a free agency market that has already been picked over isn’t a recipe for success, and a so-called hockey trade probably won’t do enough in terms of positioning the Devils in a manner to go big-game hunting for a goal scoring forward.
We’ll see what Luke’s number ultimately comes in at, but there’s nothing wrong with starting the season with what you have and seeing what opportunities present themselves at the deadline. The Devils still have plenty of assets to put in potential trades, and the new CBA hasn’t kicked in yet where they might be able to pull a Vegas or Tampa or Florida and go significantly over the salary cap come playoff time.
I think once we get past this upcoming season, the Devils will have an easier time taking that big swing on a player. I also think there’s a decent chance said player is Quinn Hughes. But once we get to a point where there’s only one year to go on Palat and two years to go on Hamilton, both players will be easier to move then than they are now.
If I had to guess how the rest of the offseason progresses, and keep in mind, this is strictly a guess.
- I don’t think the lack of cap space at the moment will prevent a Luke Hughes deal from getting done.
- I suspect Tom Fitzgerald has a plan and an idea what it might cost to move some salary off the roster if he needs to to get said deal with Hughes done. Maybe its a cap dump, or maybe its a more traditional hockey trade, but I doubt the cap will be the reason why a deal doesn’t get done.
- Rather than perform major surgery on the roster, I think the roster is mostly set and what you see on the PuckPedia page will be what you see on Opening Night.
- Because of all of this, I don’t think there’s a “big swing” type of trade in them in the next eight months. I think any additions that are made are made with the intention of finding value depth pieces with whatever cap space they have left and not of the difference-making variety.
- The Devils likely save their best trade assets for next offseason as a result, where they probably spend some of them on Quinn Hughes.
- Whether or not Dougie Hamilton and Ondrej Palat are still on the roster by then will determine whether or not the Devils can take an additional big swing for a forward.
That’s how I view this situation. Perhaps you view things differently. Please feel free to leave a comment below and thank you for reading.