Lindy Ruff was fired by the New Jersey Devils after 61 games. Associate coach Travis Green took over as the interim head coach for the team’s last 21 games. This post shows that the Devils played worse under Green and so he should not be the team’s next full-time head coach.
The headline is pretty straight forward. This is not going to be a very kind post for New Jersey Devils associate head coach and interim head coach, Travis Green. To replace a traditional month in review post, I want to focus on how the team performed under Green when he was moved up to replace Lindy Ruff. Those who watched the games and/or remember them would likely agree that Green did not do a good job. This post intends to prove it with data.
This is relevant now as Green is apparently in the mix in General Manager Tom Fitzgerald’s search for a head coach. Back in his press conference in April after exit interviews, Fitzgerald said the following about Green, as quoted from Kristy Flannary’s post at The Hockey News:
“I owe it to the organization that I scour the coaching world for who I believe would be the perfect coach for this group moving forward for what’s available out there,” Fitzgerald said. “[Green] checks a lot of boxes. I think he’s a no-nonsense head coach. I think he’s very open. Players know where he stands and his thoughts. And that’s important. But it’s my responsibility to make sure no stone is left unturned.”
I get that from a personal and professional point of view, you do not want to deny an interim head coach’s chances at the job. Or any other job as Green recently interviewed with Ottawa for their head coaching position. Still, Green was objectively Not Good when he took charge behind the bench in New Jersey. So much so that he really should not be seen as a viable candidate for 2024-25 and beyond. Especially when you compare how the team performed under Green with how they did under the fired-and-now-Buffalo-head-coach Lindy Ruff.
The Record
For many, this alone will be sufficient. Hockey is a results-oriented business. Ruff was fired for not getting enough of them. Green got even less from a point-percentage perspective.
- Ruff: 61 games, 30-27-4, 64 points, 52.5% point percentage, 30 wins in regulation
- Green: 21 games, 8-12-1, 17 points, 40.5% point percentage, 8 wins in regulation
As per past months in review, the New Jersey Devils were often just outside or just inside of the playoff picture in the Metropolitan Division and Eastern Conference. When Ruff was fired on March 4, the Devils were sitting 8 points back of both the wild card spots (both Detroit and Tampa Bay had 72 points) and third place Philadelphia. They were within two points of Washington and the Islanders and two points ahead of Pittsburgh and Buffalo. As we know now, Washington and the Isles rose up to take spots as the Flyers and Red Wings fell apart. The Devils also fell apart and saw their season mathematically end on April 9. There were meaningful games played in March – and they were mostly losses under the rule of Green. Dead coach bounce? Nah, it was dead coach thud in Newark.
The point here is that Ruff getting them on the outside of the bubble was not good enough, but there was still a pathway to at least get the Devils into the playoffs. They needed to get points at a pace better than they did under Ruff to actually qualify for the playoffs. (52.5% in 21 games is 22.25 points; Devils missed by 10 points so an extra 5 points does not get them in. They needed a 64.3% point percentage to get in.) Difficult but possible. Under Green, they fell off the cliff and did not even come close.
Would they have won a round? Probably not. But better to try to win than to be a loser and not even try. It’s not like the Islanders and Capitals covered themselves in glory but I am sure their fans prefer that over tuning into the NHL Draft Lottery on May 7. I know I would. Your mileage may vary. Anyway, if Ruff’s results were not good enough for Fitzgerald and the Devils to fire him, then Green’s results that were even worse should disqualify him from the head coaching job in New Jersey. Again, for many of the People Who Matter, this alone is enough.
Of course, there is more to learn from how the team performed than just whether they won or lost. I assure you, the Devils were really bad under Travis Green compared to Lindy Ruff in 2023-24 beyond the record.
The 5-on-5 Performances
The most common situation in hockey is 5-on-5 play. The successful teams tend to be at least positive in the run of play. That means that they are out-attempting (Corsi), out-shooting, out-chancing, and/or out-scoring – actual and expected – their opposition. The Devils under Ruff last season were really good at this. The Devils under Ruff this season were not as good but still positive across the board except for goals. An important exception but the Devils were doing good things in 5-on-5 outside of that. Under Green, well, take a look for yourself.
Just about everything was worse under Green! Yes! Almost everything! I highlighted the difference between the two in red if it got worse under Green and I used a lot of red! The almost is due to better goaltending play – thank you, Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen – and a higher team shooting percentage, the Devils were just worse under Green! Hideous, even! More shots allowed. More attempts allowed. More scoring chances allowed. Fewer shots taken. Fewer attempts taken. Fewer scoring chances allowed. I wish I could use a more recent example of pop culture, but I feel like Homer Simpson when Marge pointed out that Bart’s grades got a little better as a hall monitor while Lisa’s got way worse. To quote the Simpson patriarch: Why can’t both be good? The answer here seems pretty obvious: Green did not know how to manage this team well. Yes, I know he did not have any time to institute his own plays. But he was also behind the bench for Ruff’s 61 games as an associate coach and seemingly knew what each player could do. Whatever Green did put into place was an utter failure in this respect.
Oh, sure, some can rationalize this. Jack Hughes was injured and we know now that Timo Meier – who was blazing hot under Green – and Jesper Bratt were also hurt. And Green did not have Dougie Hamilton at all but Ruff did for two months. At the same time, Ruff had to deal with these same (and more!) injuries and struggles with his own methods. Yet, that team generally did well in the run of play and attacked their opponents quite enough. Green got the wished-for decent goaltending that Ruff did not have. He managed the squad to be worse in front of said goalies in the offensive and defensive zones. If there was an easily attainable metric for neutral zone play, then I would not be shocked if the Devils were worse there too under Green compared to Ruff in 2023-24. Why did the Devils only win 8 games out of 21 under Green? Look at the chart and you have some answers as to why. A lot of that falls on Green as this was not the issue under Ruff.
The Power Play Performances
Travis Green was initially hired to replace Andrew Brunette, who went to take over the head coaching position in Nashville. Brunette got a whole lot out of his team despite having only four significant producers and a rare down season from Juuse Saros. Anyway, as Brunette was in charge of the power play in 2022-23 among other responsibilities, Green took that role. The power play was hot until Dougie Hamilton got hurt. Then it went into a deep lull. When Green became the interim head coach, Chris Taylor took over those duties. The success rate between the two head coaches does not seem so bad. Then you look further and look upon in horror.
When Hamilton got hurt, the Devils lost a major weapon on their power play. Some teams would then look to change the focus of the power play as to not rely on a big shot from the one defenseman. And given how skilled and quick Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Dawson Mercer can be, you would think a power play unit would look to be mobile. Nope! Green kept the slingshot entry even when opponents picked on Luke Hughes for it; Ruff and Green kept Luke Hughes as the primary defenseman on PP1; and Ruff and Green still made a point of keeping two players in the slot and in front of the crease in mostly static positions. Is it good to have a net front presence? It can be. But turning a 5-on-4 into a 3-on-4 only helps the penalty kill so unless the Devils got a great entry or just rushed the puck in for a chance, the power play was disappointing a lot more than a 22% success rate implies.
Even with the consistency of Green being in charge, the offense generated a whole lot less with Green-Taylor in place of Ruff-Green. I know the Devils had some power plays where they scored quickly. It is hard to generate shots when the first or second one goes in; but these drops in offensive rates are a lot more than just some short power plays. It shows how the power play was not so effective. These drops are huge, by the way. A SF/60 of 37 in a man advantage situation retroactively justifies every fan at the Rock and around the world screaming “SHOOOOOOOOOOOT” in March and April 2024. The expected goals model points to how little of a threat they made compared to what they did when Green was just in this role. The only saving grace was that the Devils’ sticks were much hotter. Which is a shame because if they shot more often and attacked more efficiently, the power play could have been far, far more effective. Yes, the units missed Dougie, but there were plenty of weapons on the squad. Green-Taylor decided to go with a slingshot. Sure, it occassionaly takes down a Goliath but that’s not a plan to lean on.
If you want to be a bit cheeky and point out that the power play getting worse with Green as interim speaks to Taylor’s effectiveness, then I can agree with that. Questions abound, though. Whose gameplans were being run out there? Who was picking the personnel to play? Who was in charge of said power play for 61 games prior only watch it sink in the final 21 games and possibly not say/do anything? Who chose Taylor and stuck with it as the season wound down? If the answer to any of that is Green, then he has to own this cratering of offense on power plays after he became the interim head coach.
The Penalty Kill Performances
There is one positive we can point to in Green’s time as the interim head coach. The penalty kill. It did improve dramatically. Of course, even that was not a total success with Green in charge.
As assistant coach Ryan McGill stayed in place throughout the season, I wonder how much of this is due to lineup changes, Colin Miller getting dealt, and just variation from a 61 game time period to a 21 game time period. Then again, the fact that the Devils gave up more shot attempts, scoring chances, and high danger chances on the penalty kill does not reflect well on how well they defended. The lone exception was a drop in shots allowed. That is a good thing! But a drop of 1.94 per 60 compared with increases of at least 6.5 per 60 in the other categories makes it seem like a small improvement. Which it was. Likewise, the Devils’ average shorthanded situations per game dropped from 3 to roughly 2.8 under Green. Not a huge improvement, but not having to kill as many penalties is a plus.
The real heroes on the PK were the goalies. Allen and Kahkonen provided Good goaltending for shorthanded situations. Really good. Rule of thumb is that anything close to 89-90% save percentage in shorthanded situations is excellent. They took a below league median goaltending team in PK situations under Ruff and provided real quality. As a result, the Devils got more saves, perhaps more bailout saves with the big increases in chances allowed, and so the Devils killed a higher proportion of their penalties. Great by the goalies. If you want to credit Green for some of that, then OK, but I think more of it should go to the netminders.
Concluding Thoughts
All together, the Devils played much worse under Travis Green as interim head coach. The record shows it. The data shows it. It is not just post-game frustration after a loss. Travis Green is objectively Not The Guy for the Devils.
I understand that Green may be a personable coach and he may be friendly with Fitzgerald. I would say that a GM and a head coach should have a good relationship for a successful team to be placed on the ice. But Green showed he was absolutely not the guy over his 21 games with the Devils. Even with the injuries – which Ruff had to deal with – and being behind in the standings – which Ruff also had to deal with (and caused) – the Devils’ attack cratered under Green, their defense struggled, and so even getting good goaltending did not lead them to what anyone can call success. The simple conclusion is that the team Fitzgerald built does not fit what Travis Green wants to do as a coach. How else to explain a team with a hot Timo Meier, Bratt reaching 80 points, The Big Deal fighting through the shoulder pain, and rack up ten (10) games where the Devils took fewer than 25 shots total?
The one rationalization I can come up with is that Fitzgerald fired Ruff so late in the season that Green truly did not have any time to prepare the players or himself (and his staff) accordingly. The March and April schedules were jam packed with games with few opportunities for practice and even fewer opportunities to experiment. This is a bit weak as Green was behind the bench for 61 games beforehand. He had to have good knowledge of what the players could and could not do well. As well as what was and was not working so well by Ruff’s ways. Still, if Fitzgerald made this decision about two months earlier, then Green would have had some runway to adjust his own plans when it became clearer that it was not working. Not to mention that firing Ruff with over 30 or 40 games remaining sends the message to the team that there is time to salvage the season. Alas, we cannot change what has been done.
Assuming the goal of Tom Fitzgerald and ownership is to put a winning New Jersey Devils team on the ice, then Travis Green cannot be a part of the 2024-25 season. He has had his chance. I am OK with giving him an interview just out of respect. It cannot go further than that. Travis Green was really that bad for the Devils in 2023-24. If Ruff was not good enough for the Devils in 2023-24 and was fired, then the team being objectively worse than Green should disqualify him immediately. Travis Green really should not be the head coach of the New Jersey Devils. Thankfully, there are other and even better candidates out there – rumored and otherwise.
As ever, I want to see your take. Do you agree that Travis Green really should not be the head coach of the Devils? Did you know the Devils were this bad under Green compared with Ruff? Should Ottawa fans ignore this post? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about Green’s tenure with the Devils in the comments. Thank you for reading.