The Other Young Defenseman That Needs A New Contract…Soon

Luke Hughes comes first, but could Simon Nemec be next in line for a long term extension?

The New Jersey Devils have a very important piece of business to attend to this offseason: They need to hammer out a long term contract for their young, former top five pick, potential franchise defenseman in the making.

And they also need to sign Luke Hughes to a contract extension as well.

Jokes aside, Hughes’ contract situation has been the biggest story around the Devils since the free agency frenzy ended, and for good reason. Meanwhile, the health of Luke’s older brother Jack, the potential offloading of Ondrej Palat and Dougie Hamilton, figuring out the center depth chart and the lineup as a whole, and a few other storylines have sucked up the rest of the oxygen around the team. But while all this has been going on, another notable storyline has been flying a bit under the radar: Simon Nemec is now officially eligible to sign a long term extension of his own.

Nemec hasn’t completely escaped the offseason spotlight, but when his name has come up, it’s usually in the context of potential trades. And while it’s possible he could fetch the top six scoring forward this team desperately needs, the opposite end of the spectrum regarding Nemec’s future is committing to him long term, something Tom Fitzgerald and Devils management need to make a decision on sooner rather than later. Yes, Nemec still has one year left on his entry level contract, so it’s not as pressing a need as it is for Hughes, who is a restricted free agent at the time of this writing. But considering how much agita Hughes’ contract situation is currently causing Devils fans (and, presumably, the Devils front office), getting ahead of Nemec’s long term future might be in New Jersey’s best interests.

Is Nemec worth signing long term? Would a bridge deal be the preferred option? Are the Devils better off trading Nemec for forward help? Is there precedent for signing a defenseman with so little time in the NHL to a long term deal? What would that theoretical contract even look like? We’ll try to cover all of that today as we take a look at what the future might hold for the New Jersey Devils and Simon Nemec.

Nemec’s NHL Career So Far

The second overall pick in the 2022 draft, Simon Nemec first came over to North America during the 2023-24 season. He began the year with AHL Utica, posting eight points (two goals, six assists) in 13 games, impressive numbers for a teenager. After injuries struck the Devils’ blueline, most notably a season-ending injury to Dougie Hamilton, Nemec was called up to the big leagues, making his NHL debut on December 1st. The Devils lost to the woeful Sharks that night, but Nemec registered a pair of assists in his debut.

He stuck with the varsity club the rest of the way, playing 60 total games in 2023-24 and putting up three goals and 19 total points. Those numbers might not jump off the page, but playing to a roughly 26-point pace as a teenage defenseman is a serious accomplishment. And it’s not like Nemec was logging tons and tons of minutes, allowing him to rack up some extra points here and there. He finished his rookie season averaging 19:52 of ice time per game, a respectable but not overwhelming number. Meanwhile, his numbers under the hood looked just as impressive. According to Natural Stat Trick, Nemec registered the following 5-on-5 numbers in 2023-24:

Corsi For%: 49.79%

Scoring Chances For%: 49.90%

High Danger Corsi For%: 50.63%

Expected Goals For%: 52.28%

Essentially breakeven in most categories, and a little above that in xGF%. If these were the numbers, both traditional and advanced, that he was giving the Devils in his rookie season as a 19-year-old, then it seemed reasonable to expect him to look even better the following season.

As we all know, he did not look even better the following season.

For a variety of reasons, Nemec’s 2024-25 was a major disappointment. It started before the season began when Nemec injured his shoulder in August of 2024 during Olympic Qualifying play for his home country of Slovakia. After the season ended, he revealed that he never fully recovered from that injury, which took a toll on his game and his confidence. Before that, Tom Fitzgerald also traded for Johnny Kovacevic in June of 2024, adding one more right-shot defenseman to the depth chart that Nemec had to compete with. There’s also the fact that head coach Lindy Ruff was fired during his rookie campaign, and interim coach Travis Green was not retained at the end of the year. Fitzgerald brought in Sheldon Keefe to run the bench instead, meaning Nemec had to learn an entirely new system after his promising debut. One could argue Ruff’s system played into Nemec’s strengths far better than Keefe’s does.

In all, 2024-25 was a lost season for Nemec at the NHL level. In 27 regular season games, Nemec posted two goals and four points, a significant drop in point production from 2023-24. His underlying numbers also took a big tumble. Again from NST:

CF%: 44.10%

SCF%: 43.91%

HDCF%: 40.50%

xGF%: 37.72%

Those are fall-off-a-cliff numbers right there. The one caveat you could throw in is the fact that Nemec’s most common partner in his rookie season was Jonas Siegenthaler, who played much of that year injured but was still fairly effective. Meanwhile his most common partner this past campaign was Brenden Dillon (followed by rookie Seamus Casey). So Nemec wasn’t exactly set up for success as much as he was in 2023-24. Still, it’s undeniable that Nemec took a huge step back this season. We touched on the myriad of reasons why this could be the case, and they’re all perfectly valid explanations to some extent. But it doesn’t change the fact that Nemec’s regular season was a bust.

And Then Came The Postseason

It was a short appearance for New Jersey in the 2025 playoffs, losing their first round series in five games to the Carolina Hurricanes. The series was defined by injuries to the Devils’ blueline, as Luke Hughes, Brenden Dillon, and Johnny Kovacevic suffered playoff-ending injuries early in the series, Brett Pesce played at far less than 100%, and Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler returned to the lineup after lengthy stays on Injured Reserve before they were actually ready to do so. Basically the only healthy, starting caliber defenseman New Jersey had on their roster through all five games was trade deadline acquisition Brian Dumoulin. So Tom Fitzgerald and Sheldon Keefe had to dip into their depth to fill out the blueline, which included Nemec.

In short, Nemec stepped up in a big way.

After being a healthy scratch in Game 1, Nemec played the next four contests. The two games he played on the road weren’t amazing, but it’s not like the rest of the team played well while Nemec alone struggled. Almost no one on the Devils played well in any of the three games in Carolina, so Nemec was in “good” company there.

But the two games he played at The Rock saw Nemec put forth two of his strongest efforts in all of 2024-25. In each game, he posted a 5-on-5 xGF% above 50%, including a terrific 63% mark in Game 3.

And of course, he delivered the postseason moment for the Devils deep into the night in Game 3:

Aside from the numbers, I also thought Nemec just looked so much better in the playoffs compared to the regular season. From what I recall, Nemec was the one defenseman who was actually able to handle Carolina’s forecheck pretty well once he stepped into the lineup. He was patient when he needed to be, he hurried the play when he needed to, and he usually made the right play with the puck on his stick. I actually remember Carolina skaters, famous for their aggressive forecheck, backing off Nemec a little bit because of how well he was cracking that vaunted forecheck.

It’s been a rollercoaster early on in Nemec’s career. But his performance in the postseason was a very encouraging note to go out on for the young defenseman.

The Trade Option

Before we get into the options that keep Nemec in New Jersey, let’s discuss what it might look like to go down the road of trading Nemec. One of the big reasons why there has been much more focus on trading him rather than extending him is the fact that the right side of New Jersey’s blue line is pretty crowded these days. Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, and Johnny Kovacevic are all veterans that are firmly entrenched above him on the depth chart. Not only that, but Hamilton is under contract for three more seasons, while Pesce and Kovacevic each have a whopping five more years left on their deals. There’s not much room, and there might not be much room for a while. A Hamilton trade would change that of course, but Hamilton would be a lot harder to move than Nemec.

So if there’s not much room for Nemec, then it might make sense for Fitzgerald to see what he could get for him in a trade. Especially if Fitzgerald doesn’t think Nemec will turn into the player they thought he could be on draft night anymore.

But what exactly could the Devils net in a trade for Nemec? That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it? The biggest needs for New Jersey right now are a third line center, more scoring punch in the top six, and maybe a long term answer at goaltender. Would Nemec be able to garner any of those things in a trade? Would the Devils have to add something else to a potential trade package to secure those things? Young, puck moving, right shot defensemen are a valuable commodity in the NHL, so theoretically Nemec would hold a lot of value to the right team.

The Dallas Stars come to mind as a good fit. Their left side is set between Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, and Esa Lindell. But their right side is a disaster, even after unloading Matt Dumba on the Penguins. They’re a contender that’s right up against the cap and has a glaring need for a cheap RHD, so perhaps they would be willing to send some forward talent New Jersey’s way for Nemec. But the level of forward talent they’d be willing to part with is something I’m unsure of.

The Vegas Golden Knights are another team that could work. They desperately need talent on the right side of their blue line now that Alex Pietrangelo is conveniently off their books. I doubt you could pry William Karlsson from them for Nemec considering the Maple Leafs shook them down for Nic Roy during the whole Mitch Marner saga, so if they trade Karlsson their center depth would be in a really bad spot. But maybe some other talent could be had. The Los Angeles Kings could use more young talent on their blue line. So could the Minnesota Wild. I could go on, but my point is there are a decent amount of teams that might want Nemec, and might be willing to give up some scoring depth to get him.

So given the logjam on the right side of New Jersey’s defense, the need for more forward talent, and Nemec’s uncertain future as far as development goes, it’s easy to see why he’s being talked about more as a trade chip than a part of the long term core here in the Garden State. For me personally, I think it will be difficult to get the 3C or top six winger the Devils are looking for in a trade for Nemec. His value is probably at the lowest it’s ever been right now, even with his strong postseason. I just don’t believe teams around the league value him enough to be willing to part ways with the kind of forward talent New Jersey wants and needs.

The Bridge Option

So if trading Nemec isn’t the way to go, another option is keeping him around long term…but the other, easier option might be to try to sign Nemec to a bridge contract. The Devils just did this last offseason with Dawson Mercer, so Fitzgerald has experience going down this road. And considering Nemec only has 87 career games to his name (91 if you include the postseason), this might be the way to go if Fitzgerald wants some more data on Nemec before making a decision on whether to commit to him long term or not.

If I had to try and predict Nemec’s future, my money would be on this option. It’s not necessarily the option I would want, but it’s the option I think is most likely. It’s the easiest solution, the one that kicks the can down the road a little further. Bridging Nemec might not give him or the Devils a long term answer on his future, but there is something to be said for providing stability in the short term.

So what would a bridge contract look like? Well AFP Analytics is already out with their contract projections for 2026 free agents. According to AFP, they have Nemec signing a two-year deal at approximately $2.8m AAV. This seems reasonable to me, with the caveat being that a lot can change over the course of a season. If Fitzgerald waits until next season to get Nemec’s name on a new contract, and Nemec tears it up in 2025-26, that $2.8m AAV figure won’t be an option anymore.

What I find interesting is that AFP Analytics only gives this lone projection for Nemec, whereas with most other notable RFA’s, they give a projection for short-term AND long-term contracts. They do this with Cole Perfetti, Shane Pinto, and Braden Schneider for example. But apparently they’re so confident that Nemec is getting bridged that they didn’t even bother with a long term projection.

As mentioned, this is what I think will probably end up happening with Nemec. It’s the easiest option, and it’s the reasonable one considering his lack of NHL experience. Even if it might be the one that brings the most long term instability.

The Long Term Option

And now we get to the high risk/high reward option: Inking Nemec to a long-term deal.

In the first place, how often does a player like Nemec even get signed to a long-term deal? Defensemen in their early-20’s with fewer than 100 NHL games on their resumes don’t usually command lengthy contracts. They do if they’ve produced at the level of a star, like say Miro Heiskanen or Cale Makar, but not ones like Nemec who are either unproven or have outright struggled. It’s rare, but it does happen, and we’ve even seen some over the past few seasons. Let’s run through a few examples:

Alex Vlasic, Chicago Blackhawks

Contract details: 6 years, $4.6m AAV, Age 23 in first season of contract

Chicago didn’t wait long to extend Vlasic long term. After just 97 games in the NHL, the Hawks signed Vlasic to this deal following the 2023-24 campaign, Vlasic’s first full season in the league. From a production standpoint, Vlasic didn’t exactly light the world on fire, registering three goals and 19 total points in those 97 games. If you’ll recall, that is the EXACT statline that Nemec put up in his 60-game rookie season alone.

But offense isn’t the calling card of Vlasic’s game. In his first full season in 23-24, Vlasic quickly became Chicago’s go-to guy for shutdown defense. Defensive analytics and teammates alike had lots of praise for his defensive game, even if he wasn’t a huge offensive contributor.

Unfortunately for Vlasic and the Hawks, his first year with a $4.6m cap hit went pretty terribly. His offensive production ticked up to a very respectable four goals and 30 points in 82 games, but his once-vaunted defensive game fell off a cliff. He obviously has a long career ahead of him to turn things around, and playing on a pitiful Blackhawks team sure doesn’t help. But early returns have not been good.

Mattias Samuelsson, Buffalo Sabres

Contract Details: 7 years, $4.29m AAV, Age 23 in first season of contract

If you thought the Blackhawks were quick to extend Vlasic, the Sabres would like a word. They made the decision to commit to Samuelsson long term after just 54 games at the NHL level, getting his name on a contract right before the 2022-23 campaign.

Stylistically, Samuelsson is very similar to Vlasic: Not much offense (zero goals and 12 assists in his 54 games before signing long term), but a strong defensive presence to make up for it. Unfortunately, Samuelsson is another example of things not quite going according to plan. In his first two seasons of his new deal, not only has he missed a ton of time (41 games played in 2023-24, 62 last season), but he hasn’t provided the value Buffalo’s front office expected out of him. Five goals and 21 points through those 103 games, plus shoddy defensive numbers isn’t what the Sabres had in mind. He hasn’t been as much of a trainwreck as Vlasic, but that’s faint praise. Again, maybe playing on a terrible team has dragged Samuelsson down as well.

Kaiden Guhle, Montreal Canadiens

Contract Details: 6 years, $5.55m AAV, Age 23 in first season of contract

Guhle had a little more time under his belt at the NHL level, but at only 114 games played before signing a long-term contract, he was still not that much more experienced than Nemec is now. That didn’t stop Montreal from locking him up after the 2023-24 season.

Guhle’s game resembles Nemec’s a lot more than Vlasic or Samuelsson. An offensive-minded blueliner, Guhle posted 10 goals and 40 points in those 114 games prior to his extension. This past season, Guhle missed a lot of time, only skating in 55 contests. But in that time he still put up respectable offensive numbers, adding six goals and 18 points to his ledger.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Guhle was underwater in all the big 5-on-5 metrics. But even though Montreal made the postseason, they did so while constantly losing the puck possession battle. Basically, if your name wasn’t Brendan Gallagher or Lane Hutson, you’re numbers did not look good. So you could make the case that Guhle was yet another young defenseman dragged down by the mess around him. He did look respectable according to Hockey Stat Cards’ valuation model at least.

Guhle’s new deal hasn’t even kicked in yet, this upcoming season will be year one of that contract. So if Guhle can stay on the ice and continue along his development path, he may end up making this contract look like a steal for Montreal.

John Marino, Pittsburgh Penguins

Contract Details: 6 years, $4.4m AAV, Age 24 in first season of contract

Remember him? After one great year and one mediocre year in New Jersey, Marino was shipped to Utah last summer. Before that, he was an up-and-coming Pittsburgh Penguin, and the franchise believed in his 56-game rookie season enough to sign him to a long-term deal following that campaign.

We’re pretty familiar with Marino around here, so I won’t go into fine detail on how he’s performed since his contract kicked in beginning with the 2021-22 season. He’s capable of high-level play, is stout defensively, and has strong puck-moving ability. He even looked quite valuable in his first season in Utah, though he did miss a ton of time following back surgery prior to the year. But he’s also capable of subpar play, the kind we saw in 2023-24. Plus he’s never going to be a big time point producer, with his career high being 26 in his rookie season.

Overall, Marino might not have fulfilled all his potential, but as he enters the final third of his deal, it’s probably safe to say this contract aged reasonably well. Especially with how much the salary cap will be going up over the next few seasons.

These aren’t perfect analogues to Nemec’s situation, but they’re all pretty close. Certainly close enough to serve as a template for what a long term extension might look like. Again, I didn’t include players like Heiskanen, Makar, Minnesota’s Brock Faber (long term extension after 82 games) or New York’s Adam Fox (125 games) because they performed at a much higher level than Nemec has, so their deals wouldn’t really be fits. But the four above examples I think are fair. Plus I wanted to show that there is, in fact, precedent as far as teams committing to non-star defensemen long term after a sample size as small (or smaller) as Nemec’s. Heck, these all happened since the beginning of the pandemic too, so it’s not like we have to dig deep into NHL history either.

So What Would A Long-Term Deal For Nemec Look Like?

I won’t bury the lede here. This is my projection:

6 years, $5.61m AAV

Ok, so how did I come to those figures? Well if history is any guide, a long-term extension for Nemec would probably look like one of the deals for Vlasic, Samuelsson, Guhle, or Marino. All of them got six years except for Samuelsson who got seven, so we’re going with six for Nemec. And as far as the cap hit, I looked at percentage of cap instead of raw cap hit, since the salary cap is going to look a lot different than when those players signed on.

Cap hit measured by % of total salary cap in first season of contract extension:

Vlasic: 5.23%

Samuelsson: 5.13%

Guhle: 5.81%

Marino: 5.40%

Averaged together, that comes out to 5.39% of the total salary cap. Nemec’s first season under a potential long-term extension would be 2026-27, where the projected salary cap ceiling will be $104m. So take 5.39% of $104m, and you get that $5.61m estimate for a long-term deal for Simon Nemec.

Perhaps that figure gives you a little sticker shock. I know it had that effect on me at first. But it really is important to keep in mind that a $5.61m AAV cap hit in 2026-27 is roughly the equivalent of a cap hit in the mid-to-high-4’s from this past season. And the salary cap is only expected to balloon from here.

Then again, I do also believe there’s a strong possibility that it wouldn’t even take this much to get Nemec signed long term. Playoffs aside, Nemec had a really tough season. He’s probably at his low point in terms of negotiating leverage, so it’s possible Fitzgerald could get him signed to a lengthy deal in the $4.5m-$5m range instead. This obviously would be much more palatable, and if the cap hit ended up being, say, $4.75m, that would come out to roughly 4.57% of the projected salary cap for 2026-27, the equivalent of $4.02m AAV from this past season.

Would a deal like this be a better option than a bridge deal? Would it be better than trading Nemec? The answer is yes, it certainly would be a better option…IF Fitzgerald and the rest of the Devils’ front office truly believes in Nemec. They did bring Brad Shaw in this offseason to run the defense, and he comes with a sterling reputation for getting as much as he can out of the defensemen he has worked with. Maybe Fitzgerald takes a calculated risk that Shaw will help Nemec achieve stardom, and he gets his signature on a new deal before that happens to maximize the contract value.

New Jersey will be a cap ceiling team for the foreseeable future. Obviously Luke Hughes needs a new contract, Nico Hischier will also need a new one in two seasons, and if the Devils have designs on luring the eldest Hughes brother to New Jersey, they’ll need to make some room on the books for him as well. The Devils will need as many surplus-value contracts as they can get their hands on, so if Fitzgerald believes in his heart of hearts that Nemec will blossom into a player worth more than a $5.61m AAV cap hit (or whatever number he can sign him to), the prudent thing to do would be to make it happen sooner rather than later.

That, of course, is a big if.

Final Thoughts

There is no doubt that Luke Hughes’ contract situation is more important than Simon Nemec’s at the moment. He’s an RFA, whereas Nemec has one year remaining on his contract. Plus Hughes is a superior player to Nemec right now. So he deserves all the attention Devils fans are paying him, but Nemec’s situation deserves attention as well.

In a world where we just saw the Florida Panthers win back-to-back championships largely because all of their most important players were signed to below-market deals, thus allowing them to sign more and more good players, good contracts are more valuable than ever. Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt, the three most important players on the Devils, are all worth more than their current cap hits. That’s great, but it’s not enough, and it also means the contention window is now.

Perhaps Tom Fitzgerald does not believe in Nemec, and has given up on him being a long term part of this team. Perhaps Fitzgerald does believe in him, and wants to get something done this offseason, but Nemec and his representation are the ones saying no. Perhaps Nemec feels comfortable betting on himself in the final year of his entry level contract. Perhaps Fitzgerald has determined that Nemec will be a good player someday, but he’s more valuable to this franchise as a trade chip. There are so many variables at play here, it’s hard to know what the right move is.

At the end of the day, I understand that the likelihood of the Devils signing Nemec to a long-term deal this offseason is very slim. They will most likely play out the season and cross this bridge a year from now, just like they’re currently doing with Hughes. I’m not even necessarily advocating for a long-term extension right now. As we saw with Vlasic and Samuelsson, deals like these can go wrong.

But the whole point of this exercise is to highlight that Nemec’s future deserves a little attention as well (especially from a cap management perspective), and to give a ballpark estimate on what it might take to keep Nemec around long term. Whether Fitzgerald thinks he’s better off committing to him, bridging him, or trading him, I would advise him to make a decision sooner rather than later. For me personally, I think bridging him is probably the worst option. I would like to see decisiveness one way or the other, not an in-between compromise. Either trade him for forward help, or show him you believe in him and reap the rewards of a below-market deal for years to come if you think Nemec can give you that.

Your Take

What do you make of Simon Nemec’s contract situation? As it stands right now, what is your preferred option: Trade, bridge deal, or long-term deal? Would you be fine with that $5.6m AAV figure, or do you need that number to be lower on a long-term extension? As always, thanks for reading!