We made it! Game 1 in the books – I hope you left milk and cookies out for Scott Gomez on Wednesday night!
Jackson covered off on what the lineup will look like to start and it looks like the magic of LTIR is being used to put us right at the cap for opening night. It was a bit of a surprise when surprise on day 1 of camp when we learned about Stefan Noesen’s injured groin. It sounds like this hampered him during the back half of last season, and may have been responsible for his dramatic fall off in play after the New Year. He originally opted for rehab over surgery early in the offseason, but a re-aggravation led to him eventually getting said surgery. There was some stank in Fitz’s tone when talking about it during his training camp press conference, but here we are, one day before the season and he will miss some time.
One think I have been saying all summer on the Uncle Puckers is that we have both too many forwards and not enough at the same time, leading to some of the wings being potentially mis-slotted (It makes sense in my head). Our depth is far better than last season, but Mercer is a question mark with Nico and Timo but could succeed there, Gritsyuk is on the 4th line but can he carry over his pre-season success, and Dadonov is getting first crack with Jack and Bratt and seems like he has the footspeed and hockey IQ to hang with them. Lotta buts and hopes there. The only line that feels right to me is the 3rd line in Palat-Glass-Brown.
Anyway, Back to Stef
How long will our netfront GOAT be out? Well, we have no idea because the CIA seems to lead injury communication for the Devils and NHL in general. The groin can be an iffy muscle, is important for skating, and if not properly healed it can severely impact a player’s performance (see: Noesen, Stefan). He has been skating but according to Keefe and co. he isn’t close to playing games just yet and this feels like at minimum a month or two and he is starting on the injured/non-roster list (meaning his cap hit counts, but his roster spot doesn’t).
He was a pleasant surprise for 3 months last year, scoring at a 30+ goal pace, largely because of his absolute dominance netfront, particularly on PP1.
However, as noted above, his play fell off a cliff and he was eventually replaced by Mercer on PP1 and had a pretty rough playoff. He went from 16g and 21p in 40 games through Christmas to 6g and 15p in 36 games the second half of the season.. and only 1g 2p in the playoffs.
File this under getting waaaay ahead of myself, but where does Stef slot in once he’s back? Reunion with Nico and Timo? Then where does Mercer go? 3C and Glass down to 4C? Palat salary dumped? What if he and Brown are playing well? Cotter or Gritsyuk become the 13th forward? Does he resume PP1 duties? A lot of questions, and I would think the team has some if->then scenarios built out. Or at least I hope they do.
Potential Scenarios
First, I would like to note that these things tend to work themselves out, and let’s face it, the Devils haven’t been a beacon of health the past few years. Second, this is a GOOD THING. We actually have some capable organizational depth instead of things called “bastian” and “dowling” clogging the pipes. Fitz got flamed for his “creating competition” remark after last season’s trade deadline, and while I understand the frustration, he was actually correct. Iron sharpens iron, and competing for a starting role elevates everyone involved and the best will play. I can see a similar situation play out if everyone is healthy and having a 3, 4, even 7 man rotation for the 6 wing spots not filled by Timo and Bratt.
- If I were to venture a guess… Mercer is on a bit of short leash in the top 6 and is currently occupying Noesen’s original spot from last season. I don’t see him coming out of the lineup (as we all know he has yet to miss a game) and the 3C rumors won’t die as much as Mercer continues to say he prefers the wing. I can see him bumping Glass to 4C and Glendening out of the lineup. I also wouldn’t sleep on a scenario where Palat-Glass-Brown is playing great, so Mercer goes straight to the 4C spot between Gritsyuk and Cotter, bumping Glendening to the press box. This Mercer question also applies to PP1, as he is getting first crack on that unit.
- The leash may be shorter for Palat and he could get moved out after continuing to show he is washed. As Chris mentioned in his Carolina preview, he may have until Noesen’s return to prove he’s still got some juice before tumbling down the lineup. Moving him still seems like a simple solution to solve the salary cap crunch we find ourselves in, giving Fitz more flexibility to accrue cap and add some real impact at the deadline. That being said, he wears and ’A’ and I do believe the team has a far different view of him than the fanbase generally does. He also has some tight trade protection, and don’t discount his kids just starting school and Fitz leaning into the humanity of team building – for better or worse.
- Dadanov might finally show signs of age and/or not work with Jack and Bratt. Noesen could slot in with Jack and Bratt, or preferably join Nico and Timo and move Mercer to Jack’s wing. There could be some down the lineup ripple effects from this if they give Dadonov one of the lower wing spots. With a bonus heavy contract based on GP and production, this isn’t a crazy option the team takes a hard look at. He also has trade protection for half the season – he is easily movable if it’s not working.
- We see a three man rotation on the 4th line between Gritsyuk, Cotter, and Noesen. One of the rubs on Cotter has been consistency – he has an incredible toolkit but disappeared for long stretches last season. He’d pull out a preposterous individual effort and look like a top line guy, then just go back to being a plug for 5 games. A couple of days in the press box could help encourage some additional focus. Gritsyuk looked great in pre-season and has developed great chemistry with Cotter, but it is still his first season in the NHL. While he has played in a professional league, the KHL has less games and is a bit more spread out, so some breathers may be in order for him as well.
Final Thoughts
We have some options but we also have some time. Health is the number 1 priority and most important wildcard here, and some rest up and down the lineup could certainly help keep the group fresh for the playoffs. Generally, I am optimistic we have a good mix here to start the season. Is it perfect? No, but no one in the league is and the East is wide open for the taking.
Let me know what you think! How do you see this playing out?
LGD