The Devils can’t afford most of the higher end UFAs this summer, but there’s a path to them building a better lineup overall by adding several players in the $3.5M AAV or less range.
One week ago, I wrote that the solutions to the problems the New Jersey Devils are facing this offseason aren’t sitting out there in free agency.
The purpose of that article was twofold. One was to pour cold water on the idea that the Devils could realistically make a big free agency splash this summer, which is something I absolutely believe. Every time I read any article or listen to any talking head so much as soft-link the Devils to a Brad Marchand or Mitch Marner, I think to myself “did you bother to see what their cap situation was before putting this out there”. Because if they did, you’d quickly see why that won’t work from a salary cap perspective.
The other point of that article was to illustrate that there is a smarter, more efficient way of building a roster, and its the one that requires scouring the trade market for veterans already under contract rather than paying UFA prices in 2025. Essentially, I want the Devils to pay the UFA prices of 2021 or 2022 instead of this year, and the only way to realistically do that is to make trades for those players still under those deals.
The Devils cap situation is what it is, and until it’s addressed, it will hamper the extent of what Tom Fitzgerald can do to add to this roster. And while the Devils took a positive step in the right direction by trading Erik Haula to the Predators and freeing up an additional $3.15M in cap space, that’s just a start.
Or is it?
It’s always possible that there is simply no market for a trade involving Ondrej Palat. Palat has a fairly restrictive trade-list, after all. The Devils can’t place him on waivers as a workaround a la what the Rangers did with Barclay Goodrow one year ago. And I know if I were running an NHL team, I wouldn’t be going out of my way to take on the final 2 years and $6M AAV of Palat’s deal when he’s posted point totals of 23, 31, and 28 the last three years. Maybe if I were being paid to do so I’d consider it, but it would have to be worth my while.
It’s also possible that the Devils might be done in terms of “cap dump” trades. There’s a hockey argument to be made towards keeping Hamilton. I wouldn’t be looking to move someone like Dawson Mercer, Brenden Dillon, or Stefan Noesen unless it was a so-called hockey trade. It’s possible that that $14,394,167 in cap space that the Devils have to work with is all they’re going to get and they’ll need to make the most of it.
I would think that in regards to Palat, we should get an answer one way or the other this week. After all, the NHL Draft is this weekend. If the Devils are going to have to pay for someone to take Palat on, one would think that said team would want that pick this weekend to use it. And if there is no market, the buyout window is only open until June 30th. They’ll need to know sooner rather than later if the Palat money will be available to use, whether that would be via draft day trades on the draft floor or for next week when free agency officially opens up.
To bring this full circle though, your options are still limited even if you find a taker for Palat. If you move Palat, you might be able to afford two players in that $4M-ish AAV range to replace both him and Haula on the roster. This ultimately depends on what Luke’s AAV comes in at and whether or not Fitzgerald might have something else up his sleeve we aren’t privy to.
While I stand by my belief that the answers aren’t out there in free agency, I don’t think that means they should sit free agency out entirely. Rather, I think Tom Fitzgerald should try to stretch that money as far as he can by trying to find bargains where he can.
Let’s take a look at each positional group and see if there’s an avenue towards Fitzgerald doing exactly that.
Could the Devils Add a Veteran Goaltender?
Jake Allen will be a free agent, and it would not be surprising if there was a high demand for his services.
Allen is coming off of a strong season as the Devils backup goaltender, it’s a thin market for UFA goaltenders in general, and there is no shortage of suitors. If Allen wants to simply make as much money as possible or get a starter’s workload, the Flyers could provide that. If he wants to ring chase, Allen would be an upgrade over Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard in Edmonton.
I did find it interesting that Frank Seravalli mentioned that the Devils were poking around on the goaltender market though on an interview with SportsNet 650 Vancouver.
Reading between the lines, that would suggest to me that the Devils already know keeping Allen probably isn’t happening. It also suggests to me that they might not be all that enamored with the idea of Nico Daws being the #2 goaltender next season despite him being on a team-friendly deal, which is understandable. The Devils can’t afford to have another season sunk by poor goaltending and Jacob Markstrom, who missed time this season with an injury, is entering his age 36 season. Another prolonged injury-related absence by Markstrom has the potential to put the Devils in a precarious position.
I would guess the Devils are comfortable with the idea of the backup goaltender making something in the $2M AAV range. After all, they just played a season with Allen’s cap charge being $1.925M.
If they explore the trade market, guys like Scott Wedgewood ($1.5M AAV for 1 year, 3.2 GSAx), a 50% retained Alex Nedeljkovic (currently $2.5M AAV for 1 year, -1.0 GSAx), or a 50% retained Laurent Brossoit (currently $3.3M AAV for 1 year, 13.1 GSAx in 2023-24 with WPG) make varying degrees of sense. Health permitting on Brossoit though, as he missed the full season after undergoing surgery a meniscus repair in his right knee and then needing a second procedure in November due to complications.
If they opt to explore the UFA market, guys like Ilya Samsonov (1 year, $1.995M AAV projection by AFP Analytics | 0.6 GSAx), Dan Vladar (1 year, $1.463M AFP projection | 0.9 GSAx), Anton Forsberg (2 years, $1.69M AFP projection | 2.2 GSAx), and Alex Lyon (2 years, $1.798M AFP projection | 2.4 GSAx) could make sense in the Devils price range.
The last thing I’ll mention with the goaltending is that I could see the Devils wanting an option that is more than a year-to-year solution. It’ll be awhile before Mikhail Yegorov or Jakub Malek become legitimate options for the NHL team, assuming they ever get to that point. I’m not saying the Devils are going to all of a sudden go trade for Thatcher Demko, but I could see the reasoning behind kicking the tires on him as a buy-low candidate and extending him past this upcoming season. I’m not saying the Devils should pursue John Gibson, but they’ve been linked to him in the past and he’s coming off of a strong season as Anaheim’s backup. Gibson at $6.4M is far too expensive, but Gibson with 75% retention for 2 years? I think that’s a discussion worth having.
Could the Devils Add A Bargain Defenseman?
On the surface, I’d say probably not as there doesn’t appear to be an immediate need on the blueline for the Devils. Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, Brenden Dillon, Johnathan Kovacevic, Jonas Siegenthaler, Seamus Casey, and Simon Nemec are all signed for next season, and Luke Hughes is an RFA who isn’t going anywhere. That’s eight defensemen right there.
With that said, I don’t think anyone can rule out the possibility that Hamilton is traded to free up his cap space. Nor do I think anyone can rule out the possibility of one or both of Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey being flipped for help up front. We also know that Kovacevic won’t be ready for the start of the season, and until Luke Hughes is signed, he’s not an option for the NHL lineup. So I think its a possibility they look to add on the blueline.
The question for me would be what type of defenseman might they be looking to add that could fall in their price range.
I would recommend adding a mobile defenseman who has some puck-moving ability.
Florida has done a really nice job of this the last few years adding guys who are plus skaters and have some offensive touch to their game at minimum salaries the last few offseasons in Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Nate Schmidt. And while Florida is certainly in a position to offer veteran castoffs a league-minimum salary to Cup chase, they’re on the right track in regards to the type of player I’d be looking for to fill that role.
The problem with this market in general is that its pretty thin, particularly on the UFA side. Someone like Schmidt can probably get a couple years of term and decent money after being a part of Florida’s title run, but if Fitzgerald is saying “never say never” in regards to keeping someone he knows fits here in Brian Dumoulin, its probably not a great sign for any external UFA defensemen either. Dumoulin is projected for 2x$3.189M, while Schmidt is projected for 2x$2.995M, so we’re talking about veteran defensemen who are around the same age being projected to make similar money on their next deals.
Maybe its something that could be addressed via trade? I’m spitballing a couple ideas in Ty Emberson (two more years at $1.3M) and Sam Malinski (RFA) knowing Edmonton and Colorado are in tight cap situations but I’m not sure either one has enough offensive touch to really be an upgrade. Frankly, the answer is probably something along the lines of “we already have Seamus Casey at home”, assuming they hold on to him.
Could the Devils Add a Bargain Center?
Given the lack of quality options available in the first place and the importance of the position, I’d say probably not. If they Devils spend any money this offseason, it probably needs to be at the center position.
We haven’t even reached the draft yet and a lot of center options are already coming off of the board. Brock Nelson is staying in Colorado. Matt Duchene and Mavrik Bourque are staying in Dallas. I didn’t consider Jonathan Toews to be a legitimate option anyways for the Devils, but he’s going to his hometown Winnipeg Jets.
I can’t stress enough the importance of adding CENTERS (emphasis on the plural). I said plenty about this last week. Since I hit publish on that article last week, Erik Haula has since been traded. Elliotte Friedman has said the Devils are not expected to extend the qualifying offer to Cody Glass. This only further illustrates how much the Devils need centers, plural, in their bottom six.
Now, Glass might still be an option and this could simply be Fitzgerald not wanting to pay Glass his $2.5M qualifying offer. I’d agree with Fitzgerald’s assessment that Glass isn’t worth $2.5M. But even if you bring him back at your desired price point, you still need another center. And if you don’t, you need two.
Jackson did a good job breaking down some of the potential trade options in his article on Monday, so I’d recommend giving that a read. I know I’ve advocated for Nic Roy for several years now but he’d make a ton of sense as a big body 3C, and he might be a luxury for a team that is already loaded down the middle with Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl, and William Karlsson. Sam Steel is one of the better 4Cs in the NHL and Dallas too is loaded with center options between Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, and Mavrik Bourque, so maybe they make Steel expendable.
Since the Penguins appear to be to be the only team actively selling, Kevin Hayes should probably be mentioned as an option as he’s entering the final year of his deal at just over $3.5M AAV. Hayes and Fitzgerald are cousins, after all, and I don’t doubt that the Penguins would move him fairly cheaply. But Hayes has never been the greatest skater in the first place and has only produced 29 and 23 points the last two seasons, so that’s probably more of a last-resort “check in with me in August” sort of option. Noel Acciari might be an option as well (1 year, $2M AAV) but he too is coming off a dreadful season.
I would continue to look at the cap-strapped teams for potential trade options. I’m less bullish on Adam Henrique now that he’s 35 years old, but Edmonton did just re-sign Trent Frederic, there’s some chatter about him playing center, and they have their own tight cap situation, so maybe that makes Henrique expendable. Henrique has a NMC, but one would think that wouldn’t necessarily stop a trade back to where it all began for him.
I don’t know that there will be a lot of bargains out there in UFA, particularly at the center position, but Adam Gaudette (1-year, $1.025M AFP projection) could make some sense as a 4C option as long as you don’t expect him to shoot 21.1% again. He’s got good size, he’s right-handed, he wins over half his faceoffs, and would bring some speed and skill to the bottom six. Radek Faksa (2 years, $1.33M AFP projection) would also make a lot of sense as a 4C option as he’s bigger, better in the dot, and has a reputation for being a strong defensive center. Signing either one of them for under $2M makes more sense than qualifying Cody Glass.
What About A Bargain Winger?
I think this is probably the area where the Devils could do some good work if they pursue bargain options.
There’s an abundance of winger options available throughout the league, and unlike center or RHD, winger isn’t exactly a premium position. You can generally find guys and plug and play them into your lineup if you’re strong enough elsewhere in your lineup, which is another reason why I’d prioritize center this offseason.
I liked Jackson’s suggestions of Evan Rodrigues and Warren Foegele as cap casualties elsewhere but I do have reservations about Rodrigues contributing enough offensively to warrant a Top Six spot. I’d add Ross Colton (who is probably more of a winger than a center) to the list but I don’t really view $4M as a bargain, per se. I’m more or less adding him simply because I like the player and what he brings to the table.
Anthony Beauvillier (3-years, $3.22M AFP projection) could make some sense as he has the versatility to move up and down the lineup as needed and play either wing position, but he’s bounced around an awful lot the last few years and I’d like to see a little more consistent offensive production from him. Otherwise, he would feel like another Stefan Noesen-esque signing.
I think I’d be looking more towards a player the Devils have supposedly had interest in in the past in Brandon Saad though.
Saad (2-years, $2.58M AFP projection) had a bit of a down year last year but performed better once he got to Vegas. He brings a lot of big game experience and can feasibly slot in anywhere in a Top Nine while playing a responsible game.
His former Vegas teammate Victor Olofsson (3-years, $3.4M AFP projection) could also make sense to some degree. He’s not the biggest player and isn’t going to do a lot of the dirty work, but he can put the puck in the back of the net, with 105 goals in 370 career games.
If you want a “swing for the fences” upside play, I don’t know that I’d consider Andrei Kuzmenko a bargain, per se. His AFP projection of $4.5M over 3 years is probably reasonable given his level of production over three seasons, and I’d consider him to be an all-offense, no-defense type of winger that I don’t think the Devils need any more of. But he’s another guy who can put the puck in the back of the net when he’s running good, and he was solid for LA after coming over at the deadline this year. I don’t know that I expect him to flirt with 40 goals again like he did two years ago in Vancouver, but maybe he’s the type of winger who can keep up with Jack Hughes and bury a lot of the scoring chances he creates.
Final Thoughts
The Devils won’t have a lot of money to play with this summer, so its imperative they’re smart with the money they do have.
If they can find a taker for Palat’s $6M, they could potentially do some damage adding two or maybe three forwards in that $3-4M range. It’s not the type of offseason where pundits would be saying that once again that the Devils won the offseason championship, but considering the Devils already have their high end talent in place, they’re in a position where they need more of those depth pieces to fill certain roles instead of having a bunch of spare parts in their bottom six who just don’t fit together. Assuming they can, I’d like to see a combination of a bargain center (let’s say Roy for argument’s sake), along with a cheap 4C (maybe Gaudette) and pair them with a sub $4M winger and perhaps another guy versatile enough to slide over to center if needed. I came up with this.
Do I think this lineup (which is cap compliant by roughly $320K) will happen? No. But I think its a much deeper team than the one the Devils rolled out there for most of last season, with multiple options that can shift to center if needed. Which, considering Jack’s injury history, might want to be something you plan for going forward to some extent.