Here’s to hoping that last night is not an indication of how this team will balance its scoring this season.
When hockey fans think of the present-day New Jersey Devils, they almost assuredly think first of Jack Hughes, the team’s expected top scorer and their harbinger of better years after nearly a decade of being one of the worst teams in the league. For us Devils fans, and those of us who read this blog on a regular basis, Jack was not the first sign of hope. That first sign came with Nico Hischier, who is only a couple years older than Jack. Does national or Canadian media give Nico Hischier the credit he deserves? In comparison to their coverage of Jack – generally not. But media coverage does not translate to wins, and neither does hope. While the early rising careers of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes have given fans hope, and while they are perceived as bringing very different things to the table, the team is at its best when the two are leading the offensive charge. Devils are truly only a threatening team when both of their top centers are on the ice. They might be able to survive other injuries, but the Hischier-Hughes combo is essential to being a winning team on a nightly basis.
Last night’s preseason opener was a good glimpse into this issue. Despite having a largely NHL roster, with only five AHL skaters on the ice, the Devils fell a bit flat, offensively, as the night wore on. Of the team’s 25 shots on goal, 11 came from defensemen – nine of those being from Dougie Hamilton (5) and Jonas Siegenthaler (4). The most shots a forward got on goal was two. More concerning, though, is the production. While the NHLers generally had superior expected goals and possession numbers than the AHLers, only two players got on the board for the Devils last night: Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt. Each assisted on the other’s goal.
While it is best to avoid making too much out of preseason games, this is just a continuation of a problem from last year. Despite having NHL talent in the lineup, the offensive push was largely unimpressive outside of Nico and Jesper. The expected fourth line of Paul Cotter, Curtis Lazar, and Nathan Bastian had a great showing in their time together, but was still outscored by a goal despite controlling 75% of shot attempts, thanks to a bad misplay by Nico Daws. The line of Ondrej Palat, Shane Bowers, and Stefan Noesen also controlled play very well, but could not get on the scoresheet. For Ondrej Palat, I would like for him to produce like a $6 million player this season, with a clean bill of health going into the year — but I do not expect anything other than a repeat of his 35-point pace.
Things like this might not be such an issue if the team’s apparent plan was something other than putting Tomas Tatar back on a line with Nico Hischier and hoping they rekindle their chemistry from two seasons ago. Yes, there was some great passing at times between them last night, but they still gave up too many scoring chances against, and Tatar’s contributions to the actual success of the line were limited. What happened when they were separated? In the one shift Tatar played without Hischier and Bratt, the Devils gave up 0.12 xGA on a high-danger scoring chance. Comparatively, the Devils had two-thirds of shot attempts and all expected goals when Nico played without Tatar. They were very small samples, but I would keep an eye on that sort of thing to see if it becomes a pattern. So yes, a line with Tomas Tatar lining up on the wing for Nico Hischier might work, since Tatar was once a very effective pressure valve of sorts, backing up Nico’s offensive play with neutral zone support and just enough scoring to be playable in the top six. Maybe Tatar will get back up to the speed he played at a couple years ago, but I’m not holding my breath for people to reverse the course of aging. I just don’t think he has the speed or hands left in him to hang with the others as it comes to creating goals.
So, unless Sheldon Keefe decides that the plentiful data showing that Timo Meier and Jack Hughes do not mix well at even strength is worth taking into consideration, it currently looks like Nico Hischier will have to carry a heavy weight on one of his wings. But for Nico, this is nothing new. His 207 points over his last three seasons is pretty remarkable when considering the variance in his even strength deployment, from playing with Jimmy Vesey and Nate Bastian for some games in 2021-22 to being relegated to bizarre third-line duties last year, before being put on a high-powered line with Bratt and Meier as the season neared its conclusion.
On the other hand, Jack Hughes tends not to be put on lines with any grinder types — though Bratt has played about 300 more minutes with Nico Hischier since the beginning of the 2021-22 season. The lowest-scoring player Hughes tends to play with is Erik Haula, who statistically tends to massively boost Hughes’ defensive results. Over the last two seasons, the Devils have outscored opponents 74-71 at five-on-five with Hughes playing without Haula, while they outscored opponents 40-33 with the two paired together. However, their scoring pace severely slowed down when together last season.
Keefe’s task here is figuring out how to balance his lineup so skill doesn’t get overloaded onto certain lines. Could keeping Haula with Hughes, and Palat with Hischier be an answer to that issue? It certainly could — but age is a factor with all of Haula, Palat, and Tatar. I still think that Bratt-Hischier-Meier, which scored at a rate of 4.56 goals per 60 minutes since Meier became a Devil (an absolute bonkers, insane pace), is the team’s best bet as a first line. This would allow Hischier to limit his individual risk-taking in comparison to when he is the line’s offense and defense, when his coaches decide he can carry around an anchor or two on a top matchup line.
We know Jack Hughes is going to score. His linemates do not need to take it upon themselves to do too much with the puck. They just need to be in the right positions and be ready to cycle the puck around the zone. There is such a thing as getting in Jack’s way on offense, with all of the space and time he likes to work with. While Nico benefits from a north-south game on his line, Hughes’ attack style is not that straightforward. While Lindy Ruff and Travis Green failed to put Mercer with Hughes last year, they scored eight goals in just 120 minutes together — a 4.00 per 60 pace. The other linemate might not necessarily be so important. Dawson Mercer can tip pucks, take faceoffs, shoot and score, and dig out rebounds. They just need someone else to fight the physical battles.
If last season was any indication, alongside the team’s very defensively-focused moves in the offseason, Hughes and Hischier will have to shoulder the offensive burden this season even more than they did in 2022-23 and 2023-24. There’s probably not going to be a magic fix to this or a deadline acquisition to smooth things out at the top of the lineup. The Devils will make a playoff run this season only if both Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes lead lines that produce at least three and a half goals per 60 even strength minutes. Last year, Hischier was at a tick under four goals, with Hughes at 3.2 on-ice goals per 60. With the team’s goaltending and defensive woes, they had a combined differential of -0.7 net even strength goals per 60.
Now that they have their man in Jacob Markstrom, the New Jersey Devils need to unleash the offense — and Jack Hughes needs to get back to his 2022-23 self. This team’s depth is built to hold leads and pin opponents back, but not necessarily to score. It will not be enough to work towards a playoff run if the team tries to use Nico as a shutdown center. It will not be enough to rely on one or the other for offense. And it will not be enough if either of them miss significant time. The Devils have two elite offensive centers. If they can protect them and use them both properly, they will lift up their teammates and bring the Devils deep into the playoffs.
Your Thoughts
What do you think about the scoring outlook for this team? How do you think this season is going to go for Nico Hischier? Will he be properly used as an offensive line center, or will he be given grinders and anchors to run shutdown lines with? As for Jack Hughes, what do you think is the best way to get him back on track to being a 100-point center? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.