The Devils have been hit or miss at 5 on 5 play this calendar year, and had a really bad stretch in March. But they have recently righted the ship, which could be a good sign for the playoffs.
Most of the calendar year 2025 has really not been a great one for the New Jersey Devils. While they were pretty dominant in the 2024 portion of this season’s schedule, the injuries have really piled up the later the season has gone on, and it has impacted the team’s performance and success on the ice. They have not been a bad team by any stretch, and they still firmly hold the third playoff spot in the Metro for a good reason. They are a solid team. But without these injuries, it is easy to wonder what more they could have been, where they could be now, and where their ceiling would’ve been.
When looking at expected goals, The team’s best stretch of games was from later November through early January. Just take a look at the chart thanks to MoneyPuck:
They were incredible in the month of December, crushing teams at 5 on 5 and really tilting the ice against the opposition night in and night out. The reverse of that was February and the first half of March, where they were regularly having the ice tiled against them. It was not as drastic as it was in December when they were imposing their will on the opposition, but the Devils were struggling around this time to push the puck forward as often at 5 on 5.
The worst stretch, for expected goals, came in mid-March, specifically the games from March 13 to March 20. In those 4 games, the team’s overall xGF% dropped from +14.24, where it was before the March 13 game, to +8.59, where it was after the March 20 game. That is a drop of 5.65 in just four games. It was a really poor stretch of 5 on 5 play, even if the team went 2-2 in those four games. They managed to come back and beat Edmonton 3-2, and then only allowed one goal against Columbus a couple of games later. But they also got crushed 7-3 against Pittsburgh and 5-3 against Calgary in the same stretch.
Since that Calgary game on March 20, however, the team has really stabilized its 5 on 5 play. Their overall expected goals numbers have not shot back up or anything, but they stopped going into freefall and righted the ship. Heading into the rivalry game this afternoon, it currently sits at +9.05. Since the end of January, this is one of the longest streaks of the team having regular, consistent positive play at 5 on 5 in terms of expected goals. They were good in early March for a short stretch as well, but that is it. Otherwise, this is the best they’ve been able to tilt the ice for some time, at least consistently.
Now, you can take that information one of two ways I think. The good thing is that they are righting the ship and improving their 5 on 5 play. They cannot play poorly at even strength and win in the playoffs, it will not happen. So improving their game in this setting is key, and they’re doing it at the right time. The negative way to look at it, however, is that the best they can do at this point, without Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, is barely improving their expected goal numbers. They thoroughly dominated other teams at 5 on 5 in December when they were healthier. But now they struggle to do that anymore, they mostly manage to just stay above water. It is much tougher for them to generate attempts and opportunities without the best player on the team, which makes total sense.
If they can keep improving their expected goals numbers the rest of the season, I think that will be a great sign heading into playoff action. Let’s hope they can continue on this run.