Stefan Noesen has been one of the Devils’ best forwards, but he has not gotten a swing at the top six yet.
The New Jersey Devils have little to complain about. We have talked plenty about the defensive pairs — though it seems that Tom Fitzgerald and Sheldon Keefe have made a corrective move by swapping Daniil Misyul for Seamus Casey — but not all the forward lines have done their best, either. In fact, only one center — Nico Hischier — has been above the breakeven point in all of CF%, xGF%, and goals for. Both Erik Haula and Jack Hughes have had good goal numbers (7-5 and 5-4 at even strength, respectively), but have been underwater in possession and expected goals numbers.
Sheldon Keefe did not take long to learn what Lindy Ruff had run into in constructing his lineup: Timo Meier fits better with Nico Hischier than with Jack Hughes. He also did not linger with Tomas Tatar in the top six with Nico Hischier, dropping him to the third line to elevate Paul Cotter to provide an intensity boost to Jack Hughes’s wing. While this was well-reasoned, given Cotter’s five-goal outburst to start the season, they did not fare well at all in their recent game against Washington. In fact, that line was playing so poorly that Keefe elevated Ondrej Palat, who has not been very effective so far this season and had been demoted to the fourth line.
The task for Keefe is thus finding Hughes a suitable left winger to support his style of play. Jack’s lines this year have performed as follows, according to data from Natural Stat Trick:
Natural Stat Trick
It is rather unfortunate that, in this case, Timo Meier was doing fine on the left wing of Hughes. It’s just that Timo has been unstoppable with Nico Hischier up the middle, as that duo has combined for a 56.67 CF% and 69.57 xGF% with a 2-0 goals advantage on opponents in just 26:34 together. This continues the work they did last season with Jesper Bratt, when they were one of the most prolific scoring lines in the NHL on a per-60 rate basis. The Hughes line with Timo has not done poorly, but the Hischier line with Timo is a few steps above.
The other options have just not worked so far. Hughes and Cotter has been a better combination in moments where Hughes stayed out extra long or found himself on a double shift. With Bratt on the right, that duo has not worked so far. And while the team looks poised to give Ondrej Palat a chance to show he can still hang in the top six, I do not expect it to pan out.
There are just two players who, in their short time with Jack Hughes, have not been completely done in defensively at one point or another: those two are Nico Hischier and Stefan Noesen. Both samples are ridiculously small, but they hint at what is working for Jack. When Nico Hischier is on the ice, Jack is obviously able to play wing, and he can focus more on his offensive output than his defensive responsibilities. When a guy like Stefan Noesen is on the ice, Jack has a lot of physical attention drawn away from him, as opposing defenders deal with Noesen’s heavy forecheck and physical style.
Many would say that Rod Brind’Amour unlocked Noesen, but the truth has been that he has been very effective whenever he has gotten NHL minutes since he was originally traded from Anaheim to New Jersey. So, if you find yourself thinking that a line with a 200-foot grinder like Noesen would not work for Jack Hughes, think again. Noesen’s play is so consistently positive for his team that HockeyViz grades him as a fringe first line forward in terms of ability and impact.
HockeyViz
Obviously, the ice time has not been there for Noesen much in his career. His current pace of 13:33 per night would be a full-season career high, up from his previous high of 13:17 under John Hynes in 2017-18. Perhaps it would be difficult for Noesen to keep up his intensity while playing more minutes, but I think risking that tradeoff is worth it. Stefan Noesen has had an odd NHL career, being a first round pick who struggled to stick in the NHL due to injuries affecting his early professional development. At 31 years old, Noesen has just 374 NHL games under his belt, and he is currently leading his team in point production, coming off a year where he had 37 points in fourth line minutes at just 11:52 per night.
Is Noesen’s scoring pace going to keep up? I would not count on him keeping up a point per game, but I do think he has flown under the radar too much over his career — he has more surprises in him. With the Devils slated to run Ondrej Palat to Hughes’ left tomorrow night, keep Noesen in mind if that line does not perform well. He is a guy who consistently puts his lines in positions to succeed, and I would argue that he would be the most complete physical presence Hughes would have had so far in his career. Paul Cotter is definitely more on the raw side than Noesen, and Timo Meier has not unleashed himself too often on opponents. Noesen is a puck hound who will keep opponents in check, like an old school hockey player that still makes it work today.
For the Devils to be a competitive team in the playoffs, they need their top six to be elite. So far, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier have held up their end of the bargain. To the surprise of some, Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt have not. Now, Hughes is still getting back into it after surgery, and Bratt has dealt with an illness — but Keefe needs to find the right button to push to unleash them on their opponents. Nico is setting them up by giving them easier matchups and goals to build off of, and I think the gritty forechecking veteran is the right guy to give them some open ice to shoot with.
Your Thoughts
What do you think about the top six situation for the Devils? Do you think Ondrej Palat will have a good game tomorrow, making this a moot point? How long do you think it will take for Jack Hughes to feel like his pre-surgery self? If not Stefan Noesen, are there any other guys you think should get a run on a line in the top six? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.