Jacob Markstrom is entering a contract year and the Devils will have to make a decision on his future.
Prior to the 2024-25 season, the New Jersey Devils acquired Jacob Markstrom from the Calgary Flames in an attempt to solve their perennial goaltending woes once and for all.
Overall, Markstrom had a solid first season for the Devils, posting a .900 save percentage and 3.4 goals saved above expected over 49 games. There were plenty of positives as he was 4th in the NHL on high danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage among goaltenders who appeared in 30 or more games. There were a lot of games where Markstrom made brilliant save after brilliant save to keep the Devils in said game. There were also several instances where Markstrom would let in a soft goal and leave everyone scratching their heads and asking themselves “how did THAT go in”, as seen by his .959 low danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage, 39th in the NHL. If you gave Tom Fitzgerald and Sheldon Keefe some truth serum though, I suspect that they’d be content with what Markstrom did over the course of the 2024-25 campaign.
The Devils knew when they acquired Markstrom that this might be a relatively short-term pact, as he had two years remaining on his contract and is already in his mid 30s. With that first season in the books, Markstrom is eligible to sign an extension with the Devils at any point as he enters a contract year. But should the Devils consider doing that and committing to Markstrom past the 2025-26 campaign?
The Case For Extending Markstrom
A 15-year NHL veteran, Markstrom is entering his age 36 season. While his age isn’t in and of itself a disqualifier, I do think its worth considering the history of aging goaltenders and whether or not the Devils should take that risk.
Martin Brodeur missed a large chunk of his age 36 season due to a torn biceps, but played brilliantly when he was healthy, posting .916 save percentages in 2008-09 and 2009-10. In that latter season, he played an astonishing 77 games and finished 3rd in Vezina voting. Brodeur’s performance declined as he got older but he was able to elevate his game at certain points….perhaps none of them bigger than the 2012 postseason where he had a .917 save percentage in the postseason while leading the Devils to the Stanley Cup Final.
There have been other instances of goaltenders playing well into their late 30s. Marc-Andre Fleury won a Vezina with the Golden Knights in his age 36 season, posting a .928 save percentage and 17.9 goals saved above expected. Dominik Hasek won a Vezina at 36 years old and played brilliantly into his 40s. Patrick Roy retired after his age 37 season but was still one of the league’s elite netminders when he hung the pads up. Tim Thomas won a Vezina at 36 years old. Roberto Luongo posted a .922 from his age 36-38 seasons. Sergei Bobrovsky just led the Panthers to a Stanley Cup in his age 36 season.
We’re also in an era where with advances in sports medicine and athlete conditioning that athletes are capable of playing effectively as they enter their golden years. Markstrom’s play has fluctuated from year to year, but there was nothing from his play last season to indicate that he’s due to drop off all of a sudden. Now, just because those guys played well at 36 doesn’t necessarily mean Markstrom will, nor do the advances in sports medicine and the history of players playing well into their golden years. I simply point that out to suggest that there’s no reason to think Markstrom can’t simply because of his age.
The Devils appear to have a succession plan in place in net, as Tom Fitzgerald refused to part with 2024 2nd round pick Mikhail Yegorov during trade talks leading up to the deadline last season. Assuming Yegorov’s development continues the manner that the Devils hope, he has a chance to be the long-term solution in net that the Devils have been searching for. That said, Yegorov isn’t close to being NHL-ready yet. He’s committed to playing another season at Boston University this season. The Devils will want to presumably get him some experience at the professional level at Utica as well whenever he does sign his ELC. They’re probably not just going throw him into the fire of playing an NHL game. So there should be some time before Yegorov arrives.
With backup goaltender Jake Allen signing a five-year extension, one might think the pathway to the NHL would be blocked if they extended Markstrom for as few as two seasons, but I wouldn’t look at it that way. Allen’s no-trade clause becomes a 10-team clause after Year 2 of his deal, and his low AAV makes him a candidate to be traded at some point during the life of that deal. And for now, Nico Daws and Jakub Malek are both still in the organization and ahead of Yegorov on the organizational depth chart. A Markstrom-Allen tandem might be a roadblock for Daws who is probably as close to NHL-ready as he’s ever going to be, but it’s not one for a player like Yegorov who presumably has higher upside and is still several years away.
The Case Against Extending Markstrom
Admittedly, I am a little concerned with Markstrom’s tendency to let in soft goals.
The best goaltenders in the league are usually somewhere in the .975 to .970 range when it comes to stopping the low danger unblocked attempts. Markstrom has been at .959 and .960 the past two seasons and is saving around -0.012 above expected on those types of shots. That doesn’t sound like a lot in the grand scheme of things, but there were enough of those types of soft goals allowed last year where they do add up over the course of the season. I do give Markstrom credit that the tougher the shot quality against, the better he plays, and the stats back that up. But there are more low-danger chances than any other type over the course of a game and season, and its an area where one would like to see Markstrom be better. I don’t know how much I can count on Markstrom improving in one particular area of his game at his age.
While I literally just said age shouldn’t be a disqualifier, I also can’t ignore that Markstrom will be turning 37 years old in the first year of any potential contract extension. I also can’t ignore that despite the advances in sports medicine that Markstrom missed a large chunk of this past season. Sports medicine doesn’t prevent a guy like Justin Brazeau crashing the net and Markstrom tweaking his knee as a result, but its still something that happened.
It should also be noted that any contract Markstrom signs may fall under the umbrellas of being a 35+ contract. There’s a lot of little nuances when it comes to 35+ contracts and cap hits, but one thing that is pretty consistent with those types of deals is how difficult they can be to get out of down the road.
That doesn’t mean you offer Markstrom something similar to what Jake Allen just signed in an attempt to lower the AAV. Part of the genius behind Allen’s deal is that that is NOT a 35+ contract despite the fact it’ll cover his age 35-39 seasons. Allen was still under the age of 35 when he signed it. I’m just pointing out how the Devils will have more flexibility down the road getting out from Allen’s deal if they feel the need to do so. Depending upon whatever Markstrom’s next deal is, that might not be the case.
I don’t know what the high end goaltending market will look like a year from now, although it’s important to remember the salary cap will take another jump and Thatcher Demko just got $8.5M AAV from the Canucks off of a bad, injury-plagued season. That $8.5M AAV range seems to be that sweet spot for franchise goaltenders now, as Linus Ullmark (4x$8.25M), Jeremy Swayman (8x$8.25M), Juuse Saros (8x$7.74M), and Ilya Sorokin (8x$8.25M) have settled in that range. But all of those goaltenders are all younger and signing for significant term than what Markstrom will presumably command.
AFP Analytics is projecting Markstrom’s next deal to be 2x$5.5M, which would be a slight paycut from his current $6M AAV but a bigger cap hit for the Devils as the Flames are retaining a portion of Markstrom’s salary this year. On the surface, that seems fine, but I’d be wary of going anywhere beyond 2 years, and I’m skeptical of any player who is playing well that they’ll be taking a paycut with the salary cap expected to make another jump. There are also going to be other options on the open market as Sergei Bobrovsky, Filip Gustavsson, Stuart Skinner, and Anthony Stolarz are slated to hit the open market. I’m not saying those options are necessarily better or worse than Markstrom. I’m simply pointing out that other options exist.
I don’t fault players for getting what they can on the open market, but I can say if I were Tom Fitzgerald and I know my salary cap situation is already tight as is, I can’t be spending upwards of $7M to $8M on a starting goaltender entering his age 37 season for however many years it will be. I’m not saying Markstrom should sign for peanuts, but I need a little bit of giveback from the player in this situation, and I don’t know that I just assume Markstrom will give the Devils a break like Allen just did.
Final Thoughts
Every time I think about this particular topic of extending Markstrom, I keep coming back to the same question.
What’s the rush?
Do the Devils need to extend Markstrom and tie up valuable cap dollars BEFORE seeing what he is in his age 36 season?
The answer to that question is a clear “no”.
That’s not to say they should write off the idea of signing him to a contract extension entirely. And it certainly opens up the Devils to the possibility of paying more after this season if Markstrom posts a .922 and is a legitimate Vezina contender. But I think that needs to be weighed against the potential negatives as well, and nobody is going to want to be on the hook for another year or two of Markstrom if he posts an .890 this upcoming season and struggles.
The aforementioned AFP projection of two-years and $5.5M AAV seems like a reasonable “meet me in the middle” compromise that could keep all parties happy, and if Markstrom’s play drops off drastically in his age 38 season, I think the Devils could manage to get by with some combination of Jake Allen, Jakub Malek, or perhaps a debuting Mikhail Yegorov. I wouldn’t be upset if that is similar to what Markstrom’s next deal actually is. But ultimately, I want to see what Markstrom is this upcoming season before making that call on July 16th. It’s one thing to extend a player in his late 20s and locking in the rest of his prime years. This isn’t that, and there’s little reason to make that commitment now with incomplete information.
The Devils have had a hard enough time finding quality goaltending where I do think they should consider keeping the status quo and extending Markstrom. They just shouldn’t rush to renew their vows before seeing what this year brings.