Thanks to some fairly new updates from MoneyPuck, we can see some recent game trends in team stats as compared to season stats. We can see just how recent trends are heading when compared to the full season.
As we head into the last week of the regular season and an impending first round bout with Carolina in the playoffs, we have been trying to see whether or not the New Jersey Devils have figured things out or not. They were a great team until the New Year, then struggled somewhat in 2025 even before Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton got hurt. Now, with their top forward and top offensive defenseman on the shelf, things have been even tougher. However, it hasn’t all been bad, and they have had some decent stretches of hockey as well. But overall, it has been a much tougher second half of the season for the team in red and black.
Now, in a cool development from MoneyPuck, we can actually see just how much more difficult the more recent games have been. Recently, they added the ability to filter team stats by full season, last 10 games, and last 20 games. This can show us how the team has done all season long, and compare it to what they have done recently. Just how much tougher has the last month been? Let’s take a look at the data (which was taken before last night’s game against Pittsburgh):
So obviously, the last 20 games have dragged down the full season stats as well, but not enough to make them bad. They were very positive in Corsi and expected goals for the first half of the season that they are still hovering near 51% in both and still ranked 11th in xG% for the entire season. That is quality across a full season, nothing to complain about.
But the numbers from the more recent games tell a very different story, one that is much more concerning heading into the playoffs where they will need to be much better to beat a solid Carolina team. Over the last 20 games, the team ranks 27th in expected goals, sitting at a paltry 46.51%. In that time span, they have been expected to have scored over 5 and a half fewer goals than their opposition at 5 on 5. That’s a fairly significant amount over 20 games, especially since this is only 5 on 5 and not all situations. Their possession stats via Corsi are somewhat better, but it does not cover for the abysmal expected goal numbers. Their PDO has been bad, trending unlucky, but that can also somewhat be a product of poor play, especially poor goaltending.
The 10 game stats are similar to the 20 game ones, but actually slightly worse despite the ranking. Their expected goal stats are almost a full percentage point worse at 45.67%, and they have been expected to score almost 3 and a half fewer goals at 5 on 5 than their opposition. This is not good. It is a trend line that is continuing to go down as we finish the regular season. If they go into the playoffs with an xG% hovering near 46%, compared to a Carolina team that has been hovering near 55% recently in the same stat, it will be a recipe for a quick playoff exit.
I don’t mean for this piece to be all negative news. As Chris wrote the other day, there are reasons to think that the Devils could be moving in the right direction heading into the playoffs. But there is also data here that shows it is not the case, and they could be in trouble in the first round. If they can work on this over the last few games of the season and get right, they are far from dead, as the last thing we want to see is the same type of playoff series as the last one this team played against Carolina. But it will be a lot of work, and they need to be playing their best hockey come game 83.