Hi-Dilly-Ho Devils sickos.
Grits is in country (continent?), all my quarter zips and fleece vests are clean and pressed, and we have a few more sleeps until the season starts. The only impending dread I have is the obligatory apple picking session, which is still in negotiations (where we stand: I am driving, taking pictures, and am allowed to check my fantasy football team twice).
Are you excited? Am I? Yes, I am actively choosing to be optimistic about the Devils.
I thought it would be fun to play around with some lines. With some question marks and a variety pack of versatile new guys, we will probably see Keefe pull out the ole’ osterizer enough that it would make Lindy blush. While he tinkers trying to find good combos, we gotta start somewhere, so all of these options may see the light of day. Or none of them. That’s what makes it fun, because what else are we gonna do?
I think there are a few philosophical approaches to how we start out.
Old Reliable Top 6/New Look Bottom 6
Noesen – Nico – Timo
Palat – Jack – Bratt
Gritsyuk – Mercer – Dadonov
Cotter – Glass – Brown
Lammikko
MacDermid
Running it back up top. Nothing is particularly jazz hands about this, but familiarity certainly is a thing. This seems realistic based on history and where the new guys have historically played. Looking at Natural Stat Trick, Nico-Timo-Noesen only outscored opponents 12-11 at 5v5 in 323 minutes, but their fancy numbers are pretty encouraging and seem like they got a touch unlucky (57% xGF, 60% HDCF). Jack – Bratt – Palat, for all the ink spilled maligning what could be, outscored opponents 30-22 in 520 5v5 minutes at 53% xGF, 56% of scoring chances 52% high danger scoring chances.
That 4th line could be one of the best in the league (source: vibes) and the 3rd line could pop or be a total disaster (source: vibes).
New Year / New You
Dadonov – Jack – Timo
Noesen – Nico – Bratt
Gritsyuk – Mercer – Brown
Palat – Glass – Cotter
Lammikko
MacDermid
There is a prevailing narrative that Jack-Timo doesn’t work. That isn’t necessarily true. What I think didn’t work was Bratt-Jack-Timo, based on the “there’s only one puck” theory. In 154 5v5 minutes together Timo and Jack outscored their opponents 11-4 and had an xGF of 62%. With Bratt, the trio was basically break even across shots, chances and goals (4-3). I think you balance them out a bit better with Dadonov as the perfect complimentary guy and loan Bratt to Nico and this could cook. Bratt and Nico are incredibly dynamic together as well and with Noesen they had 90 5v5 minutes and controlled shot generation at 57% CF, 53% xGF and a massive 67% high danger chances advantage at 5v5.
Kinda sucks putting $6MM on the 4th line, but once puck drops it doesn’t matter what guys make, and not sure Cotter has the hockey IQ to switch sides but that can be mitigated with deployment. Also gives the Mercer/Grits a good responsible wing in Brown.
Shut Down 3rd Line / Press Box Grits
Mercer – Nico – Timo
Dadonov – Jack – Bratt
Palat – Glass – Brown
Cotter – Lammikko – Noesen
Gritsyuk
MacDermid
The glaring problem becomes basically writing Gritsytuk’s ticket back to the KHL and it exposes our center depth after Jack and Nico. Also, still not convinced Lammikko is a potential thing or what the intention is there.
This was built from the 3rd line out, and part of me sometimes thinks that how a 3rd line is deployed really can dictate how the rest of the lineup is constructed. Jackson wrote about this philosophy and how Glass can be an elite shut down 3C . Pair him with Brown, who also has good defensive metrics and we hide Palat in plain sight and give him one job. The thought behind this is the Carolina model with Staal / Colorado with Drury / Dallas with Steel – This allows Nico to attack more and not get Atlas-esque minutes every night. See above about Dadonov being a great complimentary piece, and we put Mercer back up top with Nico where historically he has thrived. In 264 5v5 minutes, Nico-Timo-Mercer outscored opponents 9-4 at a 51% xGF clip with 53% of the scoring chances and 53% of the high danger scoring chances.
Now Let’s have some fun:
Pair Up and and Hit the Dance Floor
Noesen – Nico – Gritsyuk
Palat – Jack – Bratt
Dadonov – Mercer – Timo
Cotter – Glass – Brown
Lammikko
MacDermid
This is based on something that kind of worked when Keefe was trying to find the best home for Timo, he and Mercer put together some good minutes. They outscored other teams 24-9 at 517 5v5 minutes, with strong shot and chance controlling metrics. Grits get some protection with two strong two-way players, and we run out that best 4th line in the league™. Do I like this? I think I might.
Top Line Gas / Jack Island
Bratt – Nico – Timo
Dadonov – Jack – Gritsyuk
Palat – Mercer – Noesen
Cotter – Glass – Brown
Lammikko
MacDermind
OK, so I’ve talked myself into his 4th line as I’ve been writing. The 3rd line is the “just don’t get buried in your minutes line” and I LOVE the idea of a pure gasoline line with Nico/Bratt/Timo that has some strong underlying numbers in limited minutes, although they got outscored 5-2. This also creates a potentially fun line with Jack and the Russians, Dadonov is a good distributor and Grits as a shooter.
I could make a million more of these as we sit and wait for the season to start. Like any of these? Hate them? Any fun ideas you have?
Let me know what you think!
LGD