Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Calgary Flames. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.
NHL Predictions Overview
2025–26 Season Series: First meeting between the clubs.
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: The Spot; ESPN+; Sportsnet 360
Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
The Bolts (13-7-2) welcome the Calgary Flames (8-13-3) in what is shaping up to be a fascinating collision of speed, winning-streak pride, and just plain aggression. Tampa enters the matchup fresh off a 3–0 win over the Philadelphia Flyers. Brandon Hagel had two goals and an assist, and Andrei Vasilevskiy made 20 saves. It was his first shutout of the season. He was picking off goodies as if he had already started his Black Friday shopping. Calgary is coming off a 5–2 win over the Vancouver Canucks, making it three-in-a-row. Powered by a surprise offensive explosion from five different scorers that bordered on rude, the Flames have rebounded from their 1-8 start to the season. Dustin Wolf stopped 28 shots and denied multiple Canucks players their ego boosts.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
The Lightning have won four straight and scored 15 goals in that span. The offence is cooking, but the defence and penalty kill (second in the NHL at 87.5%) have kept the “L” in the closet. Calgary thrives on surprise chances, weird bounces, and “Wait, who scored that?” goals, so the Bolts need to maintain focus and not play down to a team five games below .500. Brayden Point is currently listed as day-to-day. Erik Cernak, Pontus Holmberg, Victor Hedman, and Ryan McDonagh are on IR, so every player on their bench needs to contribute. No cashing checks for moral support.
Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay
NHL Predictions continues to be concerned with zone exits. The Lightning have a habit of turning breakouts into interpretive dance, and Calgary’s forecheck loves to punish creativity. Stay disciplined. Calgary isn’t Edmonton, but they will absolutely capitalize on bad penalties. Especially so, if their questionable power play decides to show up like an unreliable friend. Give the puck to Brandon Hagel. He’s coming off seven points in his last two games. He’s hot, but then what isn’t hot in the Tampa area? In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy is feeling it. In his four-straight wins, his .971 save percentage has helped the offence feel (even more) emboldened.
Calgary Flames Outlook
The Flames are the NHL’s version of a plot twist. You’re never entirely sure what you’re going to get with the Flames. They have a 2.38 goals-for-per-game average, but they’ve put 14 in the net over their three-game win streak. Their top six hasn’t been elite, but it’s been opportunistic. Nazem Kadri (four goals, 14 assists) is playing like a man who enjoys pressure, and Blake Coleman has been scoring timely goals like he’s paid by the clutch. Their defence isn’t solid, but they can be prone to mood swings lately.
Keys to Victory – Calgary
For the Flames, simplicity rules. Don’t be naughty. Stay out of the penalty box. Their penalty kill% is 18th in the league at 80.2%. On special teams, the goal is survival. Tampa’s power play has no respect for human feelings. Make the Bolts take the blame in classic “he did it!” style. Though Calgary’s power play, at 13.4% (or 31st in the league) is harder to look at than an ugly sweater contest this time of year, now is the time to work on it. Matthew Coronato leads the team with five power play goals. Keep feeding him on the extra-man attack.
NHL Predictions: Who Grabs the W?
This matchup promises pace, physicality, and a sprinkle of chaos. Tampa has the star power, depth, and a goaltender who collects highlight saves like Pokémon. Calgary has work ethic, grit, and a goaltender who might decide to steal one out of spite. (Because Calgary tends to run out of gas late on these extended road swings.)
Prediction: Lightning 4, Flames 2
Prop Bets of the Night
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Over 6.0 Total Goals (-110): Tampa scores freely at home, and Calgary’s offence has woken up.
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Kucherov Anytime Point (-160): Betting against him is like saying Florida doesn’t know humidity.
Final Thoughts
This matchup checks all the entertainment boxes: big stars, big saves, and the occasional debate if a Flames player is hotter than anything in the state of Florida. Calgary wants to prove its gritty, structured identity can travel, and survive Florida’s weather.
Main Photo Credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images
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The post NHL Predictions: November 26th Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.