Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we’ll look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Winnipeg Jets at Amalie Arena in Tampa. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions Overview
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch TV: The Spot, TSN3
Location: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL
2025–26 Season Series: First meeting of the season
Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (33-14-4) host the Winnipeg Jets (21-24-7) in what, on paper, looks like a snoozer for the Bolts. Tampa Bay arrives as one of the top offences in the Eastern Conference, with consistent scoring and elite goaltending helping keep them among the league’s best. The Jets, battling for a playoff spot in the Western Conference, have been a mixed bag. They are capable of strong stretches but also prone to lapses that have led to some lopsided results. Tampa Bay most recently beat the Utah Mammoth 2-0 on Monday night. Darren Raddysh scored on a power play in the second period, and Andrei Vasilevskiy made 28 saves for his second shutout of the season. The Jets ended their two-game slide by beating the New Jersey Devils 4-3 on Tuesday night. Mark Scheifele scored his 26th goal, and Connor Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 29 shots.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay’s offensive machinery continues to hum. Nikita Kucherov’s 80 total points and Jake Guentzel’s 55 points this season underscore how dangerous the top end can be. Brandon Hagel (49 points) also remains a reliable contributor, and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (23-7-3 with a 2.07 GAA and .920 save percentage) gives Tampa Bay stability between the pipes.
What Tampa must solve is consistency through all 60 minutes. Despite being in first place after a run of wins, the 8-5 loss to Columbus highlighted how quickly momentum can shift if defensive structure breaks down. Against a disciplined Jets squad that battles hard and has talented forwards, Tampa can’t afford to give up early opportunities.
Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay
NHL Predictions thinks the Lightning need to shake off the first-period rust. Tally early goals to set the tempo and avoid a slow start. Play defence from when the puck drops. Their 2.51 goals-against and 84.4 penalty-kill % are still second in the league. Winnipeg can score, but Tampa’s depth should neutralize most threats if the neutral zone is controlled. They expect secondary scoring, but there can be lapses there. Contributions from depth players like Cirelli will make the offence harder to predict.
Winnipeg Jets Outlook
The Jets enter this contest riding a decent run of form, with a 6-4 record, where they’ve collected points in most of their last 10 outings. However, Winnipeg’s overall scoring remains middling. They’re averaging just 2.92 goals-per-game and sitting around the middle of the league in both offence and defence. Winnipeg’s balanced attack shows flashes, particularly with the chemistry between Mark Scheifele (26 goals, 37 assists) and Kyle Connor (23 goals, 37 assists), both driving the offence. But the Jets’ scoring depth can dry up, and inconsistent goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck (.902 save percentage this season) means they have to outscore mistakes at times. Winnipeg’s special teams are league average, and in a hostile road environment, they’ll need to stay disciplined and opportunistic rather than get into run-and-gun exchanges with Tampa.
Keys to Victory – Winnipeg
The Jets need to slow the game down. Trap Tampa in low-event hockey and compete physically. Cash on scoring opportunities. The Jets can’t afford to be 0-for-their-chances, especially on the power play, where they are 19th in the league at 19.6%. Keep Hellebuyck sharp, since a strong goaltending performance is essential to have any chance at stealing this one.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
NHL Predictions thinks the game has the makings of a high-tempo, entertaining duel. Tampa Bay’s talent and recent stretch give them a clear edge, but the Jets have shown enough bite to make it competitive.
Prediction: Lightning 5, Jets 2
Prop Bets of the Night
Always check the latest lineup news and odds before wagering.
Lightning Team Prop – Over 3.5 Goals (-120): Tampa’s offence should produce multiple scoring chances.
Jets Anytime Scorer – Mark Scheifele (+150): He’s Winnipeg’s most consistent offensive threat.
Final Thoughts
NHL Predictions thinks this matchup blends star power and mid-season desperation: Tampa Bay looks to be the bully, while Winnipeg aims to prove it belongs in the playoff race with a David versus Goliath moment.
Main Photo: James Carey Lauder-Imagn Images
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