A disc injury robbed Nolan Foote of his 2023-24 season and he will hit RFA for the first time. What should the Devils do with the young forward?
Last week, our annual RFA profile series here at AATJ began as I took a look at Dawson Mercer and what type of contract he may get this summer. This week, we turn our attention to another young forward hitting RFA for the first time in Nolan Foote.
Nolan Foote’s 2023-24 season never really got off the ground as he suffered an injury during training camp, spent most of the year on season opening injured reserve, went on a conditioning stint, got activated, got reinjured, and barely made it back in time to play a handful of mostly nondescript NHL games in the final week of the season. But he is a former Devils top prospect who theoretically is ready for an NHL role and likely would’ve been on the roster for most of this past season had he stayed healthy.
With Foote needing a new contract, let’s take a look at what he has done so far as a Devil, what they can expect going forward, and how he might fit into the puzzle that is the 2024-25 New Jersey Devils roster.
Who is Nolan Foote and what has he done as a Devil?
Nolan Foote was selected 27th overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Lightning GM Julien Brisebois quickly inked him to a standard three-year ELC a few days after the draft. After playing his draft year with the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL, he returned to juniors and served as the Rockets captain in his draft +1 season, posting 15 goals and 18 assists in 27 games. Foote also added another five points in seven games for Team Canada in the World Juniors that season, and Foote’s ELC would slide for the first time in the process.
While this season played out, the Lightning traded Foote to the Devils along with a 2020 first round draft pick (that wound up becoming Shakir Mukhamadullin) when New Jersey sent Blake Coleman to Tampa Bay in February 2020. Foote made the jump to the pros the following season, playing 24 games for the Binghamton Devils and registering 17 points. He also made his NHL debut that season and added a goal and assist in six games, but like the rest of the team, his season came to a premature end with the COVID-19 pandemic cancelling the remainder of that season. Foote’s ELC would slide once again for the second and final time.
Foote primarily played at the AHL level with the Utica Comets the following two seasons with the occasional NHL cameo here and there whenever the Devils needed an extra forward. He wasn’t necessarily a top point producer at the AHL level, with 69 points in 110 AHL games, but he wasn’t a non-factor either as he continued to work on other areas of his game.
With Foote requiring waivers heading into the 2023-24 season, it appeared that he would get his chance to make a case for making the NHL roster. However, that was not to be as he suffered an injury during training camp that wound up effectively wiping out his entire 2023-24 season. Foote told the media during breakup day that the injury was a lower-body, disc injury in his back and that its something he’s been dealing with for four years now. He did manage to get into four games at the end of the season and score a goal (6 goals and 2 assists in 23 games over four seasons for Foote), but for all intents and purposes, it was a lost season for the former top prospect. His ELC now concluded, Foote will be an RFA without arbitration rights. With a minimal qualifying offer of $874,125, there’s little reason for Tom Fitzgerald to do anything other than qualify Foote and give him an opportunity to compete for a roster spot in training camp.
Turning 24 in November, Foote probably doesn’t have a lot of development left as a prospect. He does have good size at a listed 6’3” and 196 lb. and he does possess a heavy shot. He competes hard, has good hockey sense, isn’t a defensive liability, and could be a player who is a pain in the neck to play against with more experience at the NHL level. That said, he’s not a great skater and the Devils really lacked a lot of foot speed in their bottom six this past season. Jenna Verrico profiled Foote prior to his selection in the 2019 draft and I think a lot of what she said then turned out to be correct with Foote. I don’t think Foote should necessarily be handed a roster spot out of training camp, but remember, this is a player that Tom Fitzgerald was high on last year. Fitzgerald went as far as to call him an example of proper player development. Whether Fitzgerald and Devils brass are still high on him as a player remains to be seen, but Foote does have the physical skillset to be a successful bottom six winger in the NHL and his waiver status will give him the inside track over some younger forwards trying to make the team in camp. Obviously, the disc issue in Foote’s back is a concern and is something he’s going to likely have to manage throughout his career, but if he’s healthy, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be in the mix to be on the NHL roster unless the Devils choose to go in a different direction.
What will Foote do going forward?
This is a difficult question to answer as Foote has yet to play anything close to a full season at the NHL level and he hasn’t done enough in any of his cameos to draw a definitive conclusion on him as a player. But he has the potential to be a bit of a disruptor that you want in your bottom six. It might be a little simplistic to suggest he could be a better, left-handed version of Nathan Bastian (a comparison that Kristy Flannery made in The Hockey News so credit to her) but I do think they share similar physical traits and playing styles.
The question with Foote is more of a question with the bottom six in general and what the Devils want from that group moving forward. Ondrej Palat and Erik Haula are likely going to be on the third line, and Curtis Lazar should be in the mix somewhere in the bottom six. Bastian is under contract for next season and presumably will be on the roster barring a trade. The Devils probably need a little more size and sandpaper from their winger group in general and Foote could theoretically provide some of that. But the Devils also need a bit more speed after losing Miles Wood, Jesper Boqvist, and Michael McLeod in the past year and that’s not something Foote is going to be able to provide.
I would guess that Foote enters the 2024-25 season as the 13th forward and winds up playing 60+ games when somebody winds up getting hurt. But your guess is as good as mine and Foote could very well get caught up in the numbers game and is either snuck through waivers and sent to Utica or plucked off waivers by somebody else. It really depends how aggressive Tom Fitzgerald wants to be when it comes to reshaping the bottom of the roster.
Who are Foote’s comparables and what is his value? What would I do with Foote and what do I think the Devils will do?
Foote’s next contract isn’t going to be a demanding one, as he lacks arbitration rights and there’s simply not enough of an NHL body of work to go off of. Normally in this section, I’d find players with a similar level of production who recently got a new deal and suggest that Foote gets something similar. In this case, Foote is going to get a deal reflective of a bottom six player who hasn’t really established themselves as a full time NHL regular.
I think the Devils offer Foote the qualifying offer of $874,125 with the intention of letting him compete for a roster spot in training camp. If the Devils still believe in Foote as much as Fitzgerald mentioned previously though, perhaps a two-year deal at a slightly higher salary (let’s say $900k) would make sense for both sides. Going back to the Bastian comparison, he wound up signing a 2-year deal prior to the 2021-22 season at $825k AAV. Bastian was ultimately selected in the Seattle expansion draft before the Devils got him back on waivers, but the low salary in that second year helped the Devils make other moves prior to and during the 2022-23 season. I don’t know if Foote would jump at the chance of getting a second year guaranteed salary when he hasn’t really established himself yet, but with a lingering disc issue in his back, it might be in his best interests to consider accepting a two year deal if one were presented to him. And with players like Bastian and Lazar set to hit UFA after next season, the Devils might be more than happy to have someone locked in for under $1M as they devote precious cap dollars elsewhere.
Final Thoughts
I expect Nolan Foote to be in the mix next season when it comes to competing for a roster spot with the New Jersey Devils. He doesn’t really have anything left to gain by continuing play in the AHL, and its now or never for him in terms of him becoming an NHL regular. I do have some concerns with the Devils and their bottom six in general, but I think Foote has an NHL skillset and has a chance to be a solid bottom of the roster player given the opportunity.
Fitzgerald doesn’t really have anything to lose by offering Foote the qualifying offer for approximately $875k next season. But I do think he would be smart to consider trying to get an extra year locked in even if it means paying a little more money in the short-term, and I think Foote would be smart to at least consider taking a 2-year deal and getting that extra guaranteed money. NHL playing careers are short and we are talking about a player who has had a disc issue in his back for four years now.
That’s how I see things with Foote and his pending restricted free agency. Perhaps you see things differently. Feel free to leave a comment and thanks for reading.