Luke Hughes will be a first-time RFA this offseason. This post dives into what he has accomplished so far as a Devil and what he could be moving forward
The 2024-25 New Jersey Devils season is in the books, and while the Devils experienced some successes on the ice with a return to the postseason, that success what short-lived as the Carolina Hurricanes eliminated them in five games.
With the season behind us, lockers cleaned out, and the players, coaches, and executives going their separate ways for the summer, the time has come to turn the page on 2024-25 and look ahead to a busy offseason. With trades, the draft, and free agency (both restricted and unrestricted) on the horizon, the time is now for the Devils to reshape the roster and try to take that next step as an organization.
In the first part of our AATJ Free Agent Profile series for the 2025 offseason, we will take a look at perhaps the most important RFA on the Devils roster in Luke Hughes. Tom Fitzgerald was not asked directly about Luke Hughes’s contractual situation when he met the media last week, but one also doesn’t need to ask the GM to know how important the youngest Hughes brother is to the future of the Devils blueline.
Having completed his ELC, Luke Hughes is in line for a raise once he signs his next contract. It will be a significant raise over the ELC salary he was making the last few seasons. But what kind of deal can Hughes get? Are we looking at a long-term deal or a bridge? How does a tightening cap situation for the Devils play into all of this? Let’s dive into all of that.
Who is Luke Hughes?
The youngest of the three Hughes brothers playing in the NHL and the younger brother of Devils star Jack, Luke Hughes was the Devils fourth overall selection in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. Listed at 6’2” and 198 lb., Luke followed in the footsteps of his oldest brother Quinn and played two seasons collegiately at the University of Michigan, where he was a big part of the Wolverines success. Michigan made the Frozen Four both seasons Luke was there, while Luke posted 27 goals and 60 assists over 80 games.
After Michigan’s season came to an end in 2023, Luke put pen to paper on his standard three-year ELC, burning the first year while appearing in a handful of games for the Devils down the stretch of the 2022-23 campaign. That ELC is now up with the conclusion of the 2024-25 NHL season.
Two important notes that need to be mentioned here.
- Tom Fitzgerald will tender Luke a qualifying offer to retain his negotiating rights, as that is merely a formality at this point.
- As a 10.2.c player, Luke Hughes is NOT eligible to sign an offer sheet with any team this offseason. So even if a big-mouthed Canucks executive wanted to try to sign Luke to an offer sheet this summer to attempt to placate his brother who is already on the roster, he isn’t legally allowed to do so per the CBA.
Like both of his brothers, Luke is represented by superagent Pat Brisson, who’s client list is a who’s who of NHL elite talent.
What has Hughes done as a Devil?
Luke Hughes made an immediate impact upon joining the Devils, scoring an overtime game winning goal in his second career NHL game.
Hughes would wind up playing sporadically in the postseason in 2023, appearing in only three contests but picking up a pair of assists.
His first full season came in 2023-24, scoring 9 goals and 38 assists while playing 21:28 a night in all 82 games. This was good for a third place Calder Trophy finish behind winner Connor Bedard and fellow defenseman Brock Faber. There were plenty of bumps along the way though, as the Devils collectively as a group took a step back. Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler missed large chunks of the season, John Marino was largely ineffective, and the Devils were forced to rely heavily on a trio inexperienced defensemen in Hughes, fellow rookie Simon Nemec, and Kevin Bahl. Add some of the worst goaltending in the league to the mix and it adds up to the Devils missing the playoffs in 2023-24.
Luke’s 2024-25 season got off to a delayed start as he suffered a left-shoulder injury at some point during the offseason and would ultimately miss six-to-eight weeks. He wound up coming back on the shorter end of that timeline, making his season debut on October 24th against Detroit. He would wind up appearing in the next 64 games before missing a late season contest in Winnipeg and sitting out Game 82 along with most of the other Devils regulars. He appeared in 71 regular season games, scoring 7 goals and adding 37 assists while playing 21:09 a night. Only Brett Pesce averaged more ice time amongst Devils skaters.
Unfortunately, Luke’s 2025 postseason run got cut short as he suffered an apparent shoulder injury in Game 1 vs. Carolina. Hughes would not suit up again in the series and the Devils would be eliminated shortly afterwards.
Luke Hughes wasn’t present when the players spoke during breakup day and we learned a few days later the reason why, as he underwent shoulder surgery in Vail, Colorado. At his end of the season press conference, Fitzgerald compared the injury to what happened with Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier where its the type of nagging injury one could play through and the surgery was more of the elective variety. Luke elected to get the shoulder cleaned up, and with that now behind him, is expected to be ready for the start of training camp in the fall.
So what type of player is Luke Hughes? He’s an elite-level skater who is a smooth passer and playmaker. When he’s at his best, he’s pushing play in transition, setting up teammates for scoring opportunities, and utilizing his speed, both to get into sound defensive positioning and to create offensively. Luke saw a lot of time on the top power play unit this year and while he doesn’t have as good a shot as fellow blueliner Dougie Hamilton, its not necessarily bad either by any means. His ability to move the puck and set up others brilliantly is a big part of the reason why the Devils had one of the top power play units in the league this season, and his loss for the Carolina season was a big part of the reason why the power play struggled.
I think the biggest difference between his first full season and this one though was his growth as a defensive defenseman. You could see the strides Luke took from Year 1 to Year 2 and having a steady partner like Brett Pesce went a long way towards him having that type of growth. Luke’s stick work has improved from Year 1 to Year 2, he’s developed a better sense of when to be aggressive and when to sit back, and when he does make a mistake, he has enough speed to get back to neutralize threats. As Luke gets more experienced, I think you’ll see him take even further strides there to ultimately become one of the 10 best defensemen in the entire league.
The Hughes-Pesce pairing was 7th in the league in xGF% at 52.69% among all defensive pairings with 900+ minutes of ice time, behind elite pairings including Ekholm-Bouchard, Burns-Slavin, Toews-Makar, and DeMelo-Morrissey.
What will Hughes do going forward?
Entering his age-22 season and already having 155 games of NHL experience under his belt, Luke is just beginning to scratch the surface of what he’s going to be as an NHL player. I don’t think its a stretch to suggest that as he gets bigger, stronger, and more experienced that he could find other levels to his game and truly grow into an elite, Norris-caliber defenseman not unlike older brother Quinn.
If there are critiques to Luke’s game, he’s not the most physical defenseman. Unlike some of his teammates, he’s not going to lay a big hit to separate a forward from the puck, instead relying on his stickdown and defensive positioning to make plays on that end of the ice. His playing style will also lead to giveaways, According to Moneypuck, he ranked tied-57th among defensemen with 86 giveaways, which seems like a lot, but is fewer than teammates Dougie Hamilton and Johnathan Kovacevic (not to mention all three Norris Trophy finalists). But that also comes with the territory of playing 20+ minutes a night, being a facilitator, and having the puck on the stick as much as he does. He also makes up for that to some extent with 33 takeaways, 29th among defensemen and most among Devils defensemen. Luke also doesn’t block a ton of shots, as his 60 blocked shots is tied for 177th most among defensemen. Considering there’s only 32 teams, that’s not great.
Can Luke get better defensively? There’s certainly room for growth there as he gets more experienced, and he already took a big stride this season. There’s no reason why he can’t take another as he continues to learn the league and play slows down for him. I would also like to see Luke’s shot improve in the coming years to make him even more of an offensive threat. I don’t expect him to become Cale Makar where he’s a perennial threat to score 20-30+ goals from the backend, but I don’t see why he can’t be a guy who is good for 15+ regularly like his older brother Quinn is once he reaches his prime in a few years.
Who are Hughes’s comparables and what is his value? What would I do with Hughes and what do I think the Devils will do?
In terms of playing style, there probably isn’t a better comparison than Quinn Hughes. But seeing as Quinn signed his deal with the Canucks four years ago at this point and the salary cap has increased since then, I don’t know that that is the best contract comparable, so let’s put that one aside for the moment in favor of more recent examples.
In terms of point production, the best comparable is probably Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber. Like Luke, Faber was a Calder finalist. Like Luke, he too played all 82 games in his rookie season and registered 47 points. Unlike Luke, he’s a right-handed shot.
Faber signed an eight-year deal worth $8.5M AAV that begins next year and runs through the 2032-33 season. It’s the type of smart long-term bet that more and more teams are taking with their young players off of an ELC, as we’ve seen similar deals in Detroit with Moritz Seider (7 years, $8.55M), Buffalo with Owen Power (7 years, $8.35M AAV) and Ottawa with Jake Sanderson (8 years, $8.05M AAV). Faber and Seider’s deals were signed in the last calendar year, while Power and Sanderson’s were signed in 2023, so they’re probably the best examples of direct comparables. One other thing that should be noted…..Power and Sanderson are also represented by Pat Brisson.
Those long-term gambles don’t necessarily always work out. Power took a major step back this year and that was before he got hurt. Faber’s production dipped as well despite him playing almost a full season. But we’re talking about young players at a position that notoriously takes a long time for players to develop. It’s too early to declare those as bad deals.
AFP Analytics is projecting Hughes to get six years and $8.39M on a long-term deal, which frankly seems low given the comparables I just gave and the rising cap environment we are in. But taking a look at some other notable pending RFAs coming off of ELCs, they aren’t projecting ANY of them to sign for eight years, so perhaps they’re taking the rising cap into account that players might want to reach UFA quicker than they have in the past. For the sake of completionism, they’re projecting Hughes for three years and $5.75M on a shorter-term bridge deal.
Now, if I were Tom Fitzgerald, I would view Luke as a cornerstone type of defenseman, max out on term while topping what Faber and Seider got in terms of salary, and focus on other things, as I think that deal would eventually become one of the best bargain deals in the NHL as Luke enters his prime, two, three, or four years from now. If it were me, I’m signing Luke for 8 years and in the range of $8.6M AAV. Not because that 8.6M AAV is a cute nod to his brother’s jersey number or double Luke’s jersey number, but because he’s worth making that type of investment in.
That said, I do think there are a couple complicating factors.
First of all, the Devils salary cap situation is tightening up, as John touched on this weekend. As of this writing, they have just over $12M in cap space available. Giving Luke a sizable portion of that won’t leave a whole lot of space to make improvements elsewhere on the roster unless Fitzgerald has a plan to jettison some of the dead weight off of the roster.
To be clear, I don’t think Fitzgerald should be looking to pinch pennies with Luke. Teams don’t get into salary cap trouble paying star players what they’re worth. They get into salary cap trouble overpaying for role players who are older, and the bill might have come due for the Devils to do something about some of those deals they’ve already handed out to now-declining veterans like Ondrej Palat, Erik Haula, and even Dougie Hamilton to an extent. But I do think the cap is a consideration, and I think a bridge deal has to at least be an option on the table until the Devils clean up their books elsewhere.
Secondly, the one “yeah, but” with Luke’s situation is the idea of all three Hughes brothers eventually playing on the same team one day. It’s a unique situation. It’s something that has been speculated about since they all entered the league. They’ve all been on the cover of the EA NHL Video Game together. Furthermore, Jim Rutherford opened that can of worms when he tampered at his end of season press conference in Vancouver, and believe me, it was tampering. I don’t care what the NHL says on the matter.
I think most people assume that if the three unite on the same team anytime soon, it would likely be in New Jersey, which makes sense as two of the three brothers already play for New Jersey. Quinn isn’t scheduled to hit UFA until after the 2026-27 season, and Jack is signed through 2030.
I don’t know how realistic it would be for the Devils to unite all three Hughes brothers under one roof. I don’t know how serious the brothers are about trying to make that a thing. But I do recall how excited Jack was to see Luke drafted by the Devils on draft night. I do think its something that is at least on the table in terms of being a possibility, whether that’s this summer, next summer, or two years down the road. And I do know that in this day and age, players hold considerable amounts of power as they’re approaching UFA. Like it or not, players have the ability to use their leverage to steer their way to a desired destination if they so choose. Quinn doesn’t have no-trade protection, but it wouldn’t be far fetched for him to eventually tell the Canucks that he doesn’t plan to re-sign there and bring the issue to a head.
Why do I bring all this up though? Luke’s contract is up first amongst the three of them, and it’s up right now. The time to make any moves towards setting up the future is now. And while I don’t think Luke will force his way out of New Jersey anytime soon, I do think between the rising cap, the aforementioned Devils cap situation, notable star players in other markets not maxing out on term (ex. Auston Matthews), and the potential of a Hughes triforce being completed at some point that there’s a possibility that they don’t max out on term with Luke. Perhaps Luke takes a five-year deal to line his deal expiring with Jack’s as the brothers keep their options open. I’m not saying that will happen, but I’m sure these are possibilities Brisson may have presented to his clients if they’re serious about that boyhood dream becoming a reality.
With all that said, Brisson’s recent history with young defensemen has been to max out on term. Brisson’s history with Jack Hughes was to max out on term. Brisson and Fitzgerald seem to have a good working relationship as they’ve negotiated several deals prior to this. Not just the Hughes brothers, but Dawson Mercer as well. And it should be mentioned that something the Hughes brothers have all dealt with are injuries. Luke is currently recovering from a shoulder cleanup. Jack is rehabbing his third shoulder surgery. Quinn missed time this past season for the Canucks. I say all that to say nobody would blame Luke if he decided to max out on term and secure generational wealth, and whatever happens with Quinn’s situation is its own thing. It’s not my place to watch Luke’s (or anyone’s) wallet, and he’s allowed to do whatever he thinks is in his best interests.
I’m sure the Devils, Devils fans, and Tom Fitzgerald would be pleased if Luke signed an eight-year deal this summer. And if I had to place a bet on the most likely outcome this summer, it would be that the Devils do exactly that and figure out a way to move an unsavory contract or two out to make improvements on the roster elsewhere. But I also don’t think the Luke situation can be properly analyzed without mentioning what’s going on with Quinn in Vancouver.
Final Thoughts
Luke Hughes is a critically important piece for the Devils moving forward. His speed and playmaking ability should not be overstated. A few years ago, I wrote how he had traits that were Scott Niedermayer-like. I’m not going to go as far to say he’ll be better than Niedermayer, but I don’t think its an outlandish comparison either. It’s not a stretch to suggest that he has a chance to be the best Devils defenseman since Niedermayer, who himself is a 4-time Cup champion, former Norris trophy winner, and no-doubter Hall of Famer. The sky really is the limit in terms of his upside and potential.
I know the Devils current cap situation is tightening up, but I also don’t believe in trying to cheap out when it comes to elite-level talent and Luke is someone I would consider to be a potential elite-level talent. Or at least, one in the making. He’s exactly the type of player smart GMs take a calculated gamble on when it comes to living up to potential, because when it pays off, the player is a bargain throughout his prime seasons and it makes building out the rest of the roster easier.
If I were Tom Fitzgerald, I would be looking to sign Luke for something in the vicinity of 8 years and $8.6M AAV, which I believe is fair market value for a player of his skillset. And I would certainly try to do that in a vacuum, regardless of what’s going on with Quinn Hughes or trying to get cute and line up his deal to expire with Jack’s.
This article isn’t about Quinn or Jack though. It’s about Luke. I’m not going to speculate about potential Quinn trades (and I’d appreciate it if you didn’t in the comments) or how genuine Jack is when he says he loves being in New Jersey. But I also think when discussing Luke’s long-term future in New Jersey, Quinn’s future is the elephant in the room that should be acknowledged to some extent. I know what the Devils should do, which I’ve already stated above. They should try to do what is in their best interests, and their best interests are getting Luke’s signature on a max-term contract. But what I don’t know is what the player ultimately wants, and its not like anyone bothered to ask about Luke’s contractual situation when they had the chance to talk to Fitzgerald last week. It’s not like anyone had the chance to ask Luke himself as he was in Colorado getting his shoulder cleaned up while the rest of the team talked to the media. It is what it is.
What do you think the Devils do with Hughes this summer? Do you think they sign him long-term or do you think a bridge seems more likely? What do you think he’ll wind up getting from the Devils? Please feel free to leave a comment below and thanks for reading.