Dawson Mercer has been a productive player and a mainstay in the Devils lineup since he debuted in 2021-22. After taking a step back this year, what will his next contract look like?
With the 2023-24 season in the books for the New Jersey Devils, it’s time to look ahead to the offseason and the order of business that awaits GM Tom Fitzgerald as he tries to reshape this roster and get them back into the playoffs. One of the key areas of business to attend to will be getting their own house in order when it comes to free agents, both restricted and unrestricted.
In the first part of our AATJ Free Agent Profile series for the 2024 offseason, we will take a look at perhaps the most important RFA on the Devils roster in Dawson Mercer. Fitzgerald said during his season-ending press conference that he intends to tender a contract offer to his pending RFAs, a list that includes Mercer.
After a relatively disappointing third full NHL season and with a tightening cap sheet, there are questions as to what exactly the Devils should do with Mercer moving forward. Lets take a look at what Mercer has done thus far in his NHL career, what he could potentially do moving forward, and if its worth it for the Devils to commit to him long-term at this time.
Who is Dawson Mercer?
Dawson Mercer was the second of three first round picks by the Devils in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. Selected 18th overall, he signed his standard three-year ELC a few months later while he played out what would turn out to be his final season in juniors for the Chicoutimi Sagueneens of the QMJHL. He tallied 36 points in 23 regular season games and added another 17 in 9 postseason games.
Mercer made an good first impression for the Devils during training camp prior to the 2021-22 season, and after repeatedly turning heads during that preseason, he left the Devils no choice but to carry him on the NHL roster. He has been a mainstay in the Devils lineup ever since, playing all 82 games in each of his first three NHL seasons. His ELC expired at the conclusion of the 2023-24 season and he is now a restricted free agent without arbitration rights.
Mercer is represented by super agent Pat Brisson, who represents a lot of the top players in the NHL including Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, John Tavares, and the Hughes brothers just to name a few. He will be eligible for UFA after the 2027-28 season, so the Devils have up to four more years of team control. Mercer is a lock to be given a qualifying offer while Fitzgerald and Brisson figure out what type of deal makes the most sense moving forward.
What has Mercer done as a Devil?
There’s a saying that your best ability is availability, and as I’ve mentioned, Mercer has played in all 82 games in each of his three NHL seasons (as well as all 12 playoff games last season). Considering the physical nature of hockey in general and that he did this in his age 20-22 seasons before fully growing into his body, that’s impressive in and of itself. Mercer is currently tied for the 9th longest active ironman streak in the league with Boston Bruins center Charlie Coyle and Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider with 246 consecutive games played.
Mercer hasn’t just shown up to work and gotten a participation trophy though. He has shown that he is definitely an NHL-caliber level player. He finished 11th in voting for the Calder Trophy in his rookie season with 42 points. Mercer built on that with a breakout campaign in 2022-23, scoring 27 goals and 29 assists. The highlight of that season came between February 16th and March 3rd, scoring goals in 8 consecutive games, tying a franchise record. Only Wayne Gretzky had a longer streak at the age of 21 or younger, so anytime you’re in the conversation with The Great One, you’re doing something right. John highlighted that run as Mercer developed a reputation for having that DAWG in him, and I’d recommend going back and re-reading that to see the type of goals that Mercer can score when he’s going well. Mercer added his first career hat trick late in the 2022-23 season in a win over the Penguins, for good measure. In the playoffs, he scored 3 goals and added 4 assists in 12 games.
Mercer struggled out of the gate for the Devils this past season, with no points over his first 10 games. Much was written about it at the time as Chris said he needed to step up in the wake of the Nico Hischier injury. He did not step up….not at first anyways as the Devils shifted him between center and winger out of necessity because of the injuries to Hischier and Jack Hughes. Mercer wound up shifting back to his normal spot at RW once Hischier and Hughes returned to the lineup, and while he had his moments, the dip in production was noticeable. He finished the season with 20 goals and 13 assists, but more alarming was his tendency to be invisible for long stretches. Mercer wound up having point-scoring droughts of 10, 4, 6, 6, and 7 games, which isn’t ideal when the Devils were also a defensive sieve who couldn’t get a save for much of the season.
Part of his offensive issues could be pinned on who he played with. His most common linemates this past season at 5v5 were Timo Meier when he was playing the majority of this season with two MCL injuries and an oblique, Erik Haula, Alexander Holtz, and Ondrej Palat. Aside from Meier, a quick peek at the Natural Stat Trick page would suggest that those pairings were ok when they were on the ice. Still, all of those players had their own struggles at various points of the season and Mercer was sub 50% in terms of CF and xG% on the year. His shots and shot attempts were down and he didn’t see enough time on the power play as part of the second unit to make up for it (118:36). His PDO of .980 would also suggest he was a smidge unlucky, so perhaps it shouldn’t be too surprising to see Mercer’s assists total dip to just 13 total.
Dawson Mercer is playing textbook sophomore season. We expect he’ll be playing at TOP6 level in the next season again. https://t.co/AIlaCHCGSO pic.twitter.com/OqROoeO5AU
— Andy & Rono (@ARHockeyStats) February 23, 2024
When Dawson Mercer is going well, he’s a player who skates well, gets to the front of the net, creates enough space in tight quarters to get his shot off, and makes things happen with the so-called greasy goals that you need from time to time to win hockey games. He’s a player who can be a lethal finisher in transition and is a fine secondary scoring option that good hockey teams need in the middle of their lineup.
If I had to critique one area of Mercer’s game, it would be his defensive impacts which I feel are a little overstated. Part of that might be him just needing to get stronger to win more than his share of battles in the corners, but there were far too many goals against this season where Mercer, along with seemingly every other member of the Devils, were caught flat-footed and standing around watching. Granted, the Devils as a team were just lost defensively, and abysmal goaltending will make any skater look bad, so this might be less of a Mercer issue than it is a team-wide issue, but its one area of his game I hope he works at over the summer to be a more complete player. I’d also like to see Mercer get to the front of the net even more, as he can really be a force in the high danger areas when he does. Hopefully with a little more strength and experience, this area of his game will come along. We’ve seen enough flashes in Mercer’s game to suggest he could really be a difference-maker come playoff time playing that style of hockey, but I’d love to see him put the entire puzzle together.
What will Mercer do going forward?
Before answering this question, I think one has to consider where Mercer should even be in the lineup.
For starters, is Mercer a center or a winger? While it would be really beneficial to the Devils in the long term if he was a center, John took a look at this question earlier this season and came to the conclusion that he’s probably better suited as a winger. I would agree with that assessment, as I don’t think his 200-foot game is quite there yet to handle the defensive responsibilities as a center. I also think he’s not enough of a play driver himself to center his own line….at least, not yet. He probably needs to be with someone who can elevate him rather than be counted on to elevate others, so he is better suited to play the Robin to someone’s Batman, whether that’s Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes. Mercer has shown that if he can create enough space in the front of the net, the Devils playmakers can get him the puck. He’s also shown if the Devils can get him in an odd-man rush in transition, he can get enough on his shot to bury one past an opposing goaltender.
In terms of roster construction, the Devils have a bit of a logjam at RW at the NHL level. Jesper Bratt has primarily played there in a Top Six role the last few seasons, and while Timo Meier hasn’t played a lot of RW with the Devils, he arguably should be with his track record there. Neither one of those players is going anywhere anytime soon as they’re both signed to long-term contracts. Mercer, Alexander Holtz, Nathan Bastian, and Curtis Lazar are some of the other right-handed shots on the roster, although Lazar played a lot more LW than RW. In any case, it might make some sense to move one of these players out as the Devils rethink what they want their bottom six to be and reshape the roster.
What I wouldn’t do if I were the Devils is trade Mercer. Not yet, anyways. The Devils roster is a little top-heavy at the moment and you need guys in the middle of your lineup who can contribute at a fair price. Mercer won’t break the bank on his next contract and while I don’t think he’s untouchable by any means, I also don’t think the Devils would easily replace his contributions internally. They don’t seem to trust Alex Holtz to play more of a role than he has and I think the Devils are telling you what little they think of the Graeme Clarkes of the world that someone like him barely gets a chance to play in a lost season and with all the injuries the Devils had. The next coaching staff will likely want to work with a player like Mercer who, while he has his flaws, is experienced. It’s tough to predict what the next coach of the Devils will do with the lineup when we don’t even know who the next coach of the Devils will be. But if the Devils stick with a top line of Timo Meier-Nico Hischier-Jesper Bratt that they played late this past season, I think a second line of Jack Hughes-Dawson Mercer and a TBD LW makes sense on paper.
Mercer is probably just scratching the surface of what he’s going to be as an NHL player though, and I don’t see why he can’t be a player who flirts with 30 goals and 60-70 point seasons as he gets stronger and enters his prime years. Like most players on this team, I’d like to see him add a little more weight and strength so he can win his share of battles along the boards and the front of the net (something he mentioned as well in his exit interview). I’d also like to see a few more strides in his two-way game so the Devils have that flexibility to shift him to center if necessary. I don’t view Mercer as a center long-term but it would be helpful if he was able to competently fill in should Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes miss time in the future. I do, however, view Mercer as an important piece in the short-term when it comes to the Devils success.
Who are Mercer’s comparables and what is his value? What would I do with Mercer and what do I think the Devils will do?
Mercer is just over half a PPG for his career (0.53 PPG to be precise). Normally, players who produce at that level or better sign long-term deals coming off of their ELC. But with the Devils cap situation being what it is and Mercer having a down year, I’m not sure a long-term deal makes a ton of sense at the moment.
Assuming the salary cap ceiling does increase to around $87.7M as expected and including overage bonuses that carryover into next season, the Devils will enter the offseason with around $20M in cap space with 16 expected NHL players under contract. But when one considers that they’re going to spend a healthy chunk of that on a goaltender and keeping an eye to the future with Luke Hughes entering the final year of his ELC, they probably don’t have as much cap space to spend on players as you’d think. And while the cap is mostly fake, its not that fake where they can just ignore it and spend haphazardly.
After experiencing a down year, now is probably not the time for Mercer and his camp to agree to sign a long-term deal that buys out his remaining RFA years. And while the Devils run the risk of Mercer exploding on a bridge deal and it costing them more money down the road (something that the Rangers are likely going to experience in the near future with Alexis Lafreniere), the tradeoff for that would be the Devils using the short-term cap savings provided by a bridge deal now to try to capitalize on the litany of team-friendly deals already on the books and build a better team for 2024-25. So I think a two-year bridge deal makes the most sense for all parties involved. Mercer gets a well-deserved raise in the short-term and the Devils can revisit in a couple years when some of their veteran deals are closer to expiration (Palat, Haula, Hamilton) as well as the expected cap ceiling increases in subsequent years.
The only question is for how much? Mercer doesn’t have arbitration rights, which is a factor. Recent forwards coming off of ELCs who have had to accept bridge deals include Kaapo Kakko (58 points in 157 games at the time he signed his bridge for 0.37 PPG), Alexis Lafreniere (91 points, 216 games, 0.42 PPG), Kirby Dach (59 points, 152 games, 0.39 PPG), Trevor Zegras (139 points, 180 games, 0.77 PPG), and Alex Newhook (66 points, 159 games, 0.42 PPG). With the exception of Zegras ($5.75M), Mercer has been more productive over the life of his ELC than any of those players. Kakko, Lafreniere, and Newhook make under $3M on their bridge deals, while Dach makes around $3.36M. Mercer should probably come in ahead of those players.
While its not an exact science, Dom Luszczyszyn’s player card at The Athletic projects Mercer to be a $1.9M player. Luszczyszyn isn’t really projecting future contracts though, as he’s pointing out what Mercer’s value is at this moment according to his model, which, make of that what you will. Dobber Hockey had Mercer at $4.78M back in January while AFP Analytics has Mercer at $4.32M for 2 years on a bridge deal and $6.69M on a long-term deal of six years. I would guess that with Tom Fitzgerald’s history of getting players to take a little less, they agree to a two-year bridge deal worth around $3.5 to 4M per season and revisit the idea of a long-term pact in a few years. It is similar to the path they went with Jesper Bratt, who proved during his bridge deal years that he was worth investing in long-term. It would make sense to take a similar approach with Mercer and confirm that he has another level to gain before locking him in for the long haul.
Let’s say the Devils and Mercer are amenable to a long-term deal though. Cole Caufield is making $7.85M over the next seven seasons after this one, but he also scored at a higher rate (0.68 PPG) than Mercer over the life of his ELC. Dylan Cozens just finished the first season of a deal paying him $7.1M AAV. His scoring rate is closer to Mercer’s (0.59 PPG) but he’s also primarily a center. Matthew Boldy finished the first season of a seven year deal paying him $7M but he dwarfed Mercer in terms of point production at 0.80 PPG. There are a couple of wingers in the $6-7M AAV range such as Owen Tippett, Brandon Hagel, and Troy Terry, but we’re talking about players who are now on their third NHL contract, so it’s not exactly a 1:1 comparison. I also don’t think its appropriate to look at deals signed 4 or 5 years ago at this point with the cap being flat for as long as it was. The AFP projection of around $6.7M is probably a reasonable number if the Devils wanted to bet on Mercer becoming a 60-70 point player in future years, but with the cap situation being what it is at the moment, I don’t think its a number the Devils will approach at this time. Ultimately, there’s little incentive for Mercer to sign long-term now when he can likely cash in bigger down the road.
What will be interesting is to see how Mercer slots in around several of his peers who are also coming off of their ELC and in need of a new deal. Seth Jarvis is also a member of the 2020 draft class who is due a new contract and has 146 points in 231 games (0.63 PPG). Lucas Raymond is due a new deal as well and has been more productive with 174 points in 238 games (0.73 PPG). So is Anton Lundell, who is at 0.52 PPG but he is also primarily a center and centers generally are more valuable than wingers. Given that they’re the most productive players from the 2020 NHL draft class and they’re all hitting RFA at the same time, they may all wind up slotting in around each other depending upon what their respective teams do. With so many contracts being a one-up of their peers with similar stat lines, the team that winds up getting the best deal might wind up being the team that strikes first. Jarvis, Raymond, and/or Lundell might wind up doing long-term deals instead of bridges though. It remains to be seen how this all plays out, but I think Mercer should slot in somewhere around his draft class peers.
Final Thoughts
Dawson Mercer is the most important RFA for the Devils to address this summer. Your mileage may vary as to whether or not he’s a core piece the Devils should build around in the long-term but he’s an important player for the here and now when it comes to the Devils and their short-term success. He likely has many good years of hockey in front of him, and while 2023-24 was a disappointment for him, there’s reason to believe he can bounce back and be the player the Devils think he can be.
The timing probably isn’t right for a long-term deal, but a bridge deal makes sense in the interim to keep the player happy and reward him for what he’s done already while maintaining enough flexibility the next few years to go get the pieces the Devils need now to get back into the playoffs. There’s always the possibility that the Devils flip Mercer for a piece that could help them, but I think that would be short-sighted even with him having a down year and they’d be hard pressed to replace him in the lineup at a fair rate.
What do you think the Devils do with Mercer this summer? Do you think they sign him long-term or do you agree with me that a bridge seems more likely? What do you think he’ll wind up getting from the Devils? Please feel free to leave a comment below and thanks for reading.