Howdy gang! We are so so close to another season of Devils hockey. I’m pumped, I do think we have a real squad here, and are due for some things to fall the right way. The air is getting crisp, all my other favorite teams stink, so please for the love of god be good, Devils. I know a lot of you are in the same fandom boat, so let Uncle Timmy welcome you to our All About The Jersey special teams preview, where we get to bask in some greatness.
Both the power play and penalty kill units have been major bright spots the past few seasons. 24-25 was no different as we were the best combined special teams in the league last season at over 110%, finishing 3rd on the PP at 28.2% (just .1% short of 2nd) and 2nd on the PK at 82.7% (.9% short of 1st). For context, the President’s Trophy winning Winnipeg Jets were second at 108% and The Islanders were last at 85% (LOL).
I don’t see any reason why a successful repeat won’t happen in 25-26, so let’s get into it.
2024-25 Special Teams Overall Performance
As mentioned above, both sides of special teams were flat out elite. Aside from a bit of swoon pre-4 Nations on the PP, both special teams units were a warm blanky, particularly when the 5 on 5 play was iffy all season and collapsed after Christmas.
Not once did our boys drop below 100% combined all season, and when the PP dipped in December and March, our PK picked up the slack.
I mentioned this in my Power Play blog a few weeks ago, but the Devils were one of the most dangerous units in recent history, one of only three teams to generate double digit xG/60 in the past two decades (or as far back as moneypuck data goes). What’s even crazier is we actually shot UNDER expected for the year by about 4 goals, so there was room for improvement over the 28% finish. For comparison, the two teams ahead of us, Winnipeg and Vegas, were 10 goals above expected and 3 goals above expected, respectively.
The PK was middle of the pack in terms of chance generation against, ranking 20th in xGA/60, and I think you can safely call the previous PK philosophy as “bend but don’t break.” They tended to stay in a tight box/diamond and collapse low, minimizing bumper and cross slot/royal road chances against, while allowing perimeter passing and shots. Going the other way, they were 2nd in generating 1.13 xG/60 offensively, and I think we should count on some good counter attacking with the addition of Brown and another year of Nico, Jack, and Bratt on the kill.
Now, I wouldn’t be a fair and balanced, handsome and tenacious “journalist” if I didn’t bring up the absolute tire fire that the PP was in the playoffs against the Canes. The combination of personnel dropping like flies and facing the #1 PK tanked any chance we had, posting a Blutarsky-esque 0.0% – the only team in the playoffs to not score a PP goal. I did notice some structural changes that probably didn’t help, with Timo on the left flank and Bratt on the right flank, but it didn’t matter since we could not generate even a modicum of pressure. If you factor in short-handed goals against, the PP was a net negative, -6.7%. It was bad is what I’m trying to say, if you didn’t pick up on that.
Similarly, the PK was godawful in the playoffs, finishing at 68.4%. One of the only significant advantages we had going in to the series (our elite PK vs. their middling PP) , turned out to be our Achilles heel and fittingly, the series ended with a Devil in the box. Losing our #1 and #2 minute munchers here in Dillon and Kovacevic, and Siegenthaler returning from injury and getting thrown immediately into the fire didn’t help.
You cannot convince me otherwise that if they buried a couple of opportunistic goals on the PP, and maintained an 80ish% PK we could’ve eked that series out in 7. Argue with a wall.
24-25 PP Leaders and Projected Units
Ok, so I got my doomer rant out of the way, back to more fun stuff. I wrote a lot about systems/structure, and a bit about the slingshot zone entries here, and since you all read that and took notes I won’t bore you with being repetitive since I’ve now linked the blog twice.
Below is a everyone who got PP time that is on the 25-26 roster, sorted by TOI (mostly). Gritsyuk had 3 PP goals according to the KHL site. All numbers from Natural Stat Trick:
This is what the number 1 unit looked like for most of past season:
The news about Stefan Noesen’s groin injury has opened the door to interesting options, but it would be surprising to see any new guys supplant returning players on the first unit. My guess is Mercer takes that Noesen netfront/bumper spot to keep the handedness consistent and we will see what happens when Noesen returns. I do not think Timo will move up to PP1 as so many have wishcasted – in my opinion it is too lefty heavy and eliminates a lot of the optionality that makes it so dangerous (did you read the other blog yet?). I can also see the newly very rich Luke Hughes taking the D spot at any point this season, but still feel like this is Dougie’s role to lose. I do want to note that in last night’s pre-season game with the Rangers they ran out a 5 forward PP1 unit and Dougie was on PP2 so this may in fact happen.
Where we will likely see some upgrades are on the second unit as we say goodbye to Erik Haula, Tomas Tatar, and Ondrej Palat. (Sorry, one second, my producer just handed me a note – Palat is still here I am being told). In Tatar and Haula’s stead, we will likely see Evgeni Dadonov and Arseni Gritsyuk adding some much needed skill and scoring pop to PP2.
Admittedly, I tried to whip up a fun little graphic for the second unit where I expect some combination of Luke/Dougie, Timo, Dadonov, Gritsyuk, Glass/Palat. They might even sneak in a 2nd D in there between Nemec and/or Casey. I had a hard time sorting who goes where, and we haven’t heard much about the look from practice reports nor have we seen any extended time in a game together in pre-season. So, no graphic for you. Both Gritsyuk and Timo love to shoot from the right flank so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Dadonov seems like a Jack proxy on the left flank but is such a smart player he can go anywhere. Glass/Palat will probably be the netfront/bumper with whomever is not the right flank guy between Timo and Gritsyuk. See what I mean – why I didn’t make a graphic, it would’ve looked like a Jackson Pollock. What I would like to see is this unit get some more time, as the second unit got about 20% of the time in 24-25 (25-30 seconds), compared to 25-30+% across the league.
24-25 PK Leaders and Projected Units
As for the PK, it was largely anchored by Dillon, Kovacevic, Pesce and Siegs (and Dumoulin, enjoy LA buddy). Up front Mercer and Nico were unit 1, with a mix of guys no longer here taking up the second unit time. Jack and Bratt saw increased usage as the season went on, and Glass got some solid minutes after he was acquired. Below is a basic and fancy number rundown for our current roster, care of Natural Stat Trick:
We will see some of new additions rotate up front as Connor Brown is an absolute stud and either Lammikko or Glendening (or Rooney) should replace Haula’s minutes. They will work in rotation with the aforementioned mainstays Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer, and the dynamic pairing of Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes. Defensively, we are without mainstay Johnny Kovacevic until the new year at least, so expect to see those minutes spread between Simon Nemec and Dougie Hamilton until one gains the trust of the staff.
That last part is a concern of mine going into the season. In his limited minutes Dougie was surprisingly effective having the lowest xGA/60 on the team, while Nemec was right in between Kovacevic and Pesce. I think it’s important to heavily emphasize their limited time as the longer you kill penalties the likelier something bad will happen, and neither Nemec or Dougie are known for their defensive acumen. A lesser concern is burnout for Nico – as Keefe has repeatedly mentioned there are no easy minutes for Nico, and hopefully Lammikko/Glendending can earn enough trust to defray some of his time as we get deeper into the season.
We should see a more aggressive PK unit from Brad Shaw as his philosophy is predicated on hunting pucks and turning them into opportunities, not just sitting back and allowing the play to come to us. If I was a gambling man (oh wait, I am!) I may look at some shorthanded goal props for Jack, Bratt, and Brown.
Final Thoughts
We should expect nothing short of more excellent special teams play. Frankly, we need it. I want to be greedy and see both units finish 1st in the league with the power play flirting with 30% all year, and the kill close to 85%. This would go a long way in quelling my concerns about 5v5 scoring carrying over from last season.
As I mentioned before, I am a major enthusiast of sexy power play goals, so I will leave you with this filthy PP goal from last weekend that took all of 7 seconds:
Let me know what you think about the special teams, any concerns or things you want to see? Sound off below!
LGD