As the Anaheim Ducks prepare to take the ice for the 2025-26 NHL season, one of the biggest storylines is the transition in goal. After seasons of timeshare and jockeying for the starter’s crease, Lukas Dostál in 2025-26 is poised to begin his first full campaign as the undisputed top netminder. The question becomes, how will he respond under greater pressure, and can he carry the Ducks further than ever before?
Looking Back at 2024-25 as a Springboard (And Reality Check)
To understand where Dostál in 2025-26 stands, it is necessary to reflect on how the 2024-25 season unfolded.
Anaheim improved in 2024-25, though not by leaps to playoff contention. The club finished with a 35–37–10 record, placing sixth in the Pacific Division and 12th in the Western Conference. They scored 217 goals while conceding 261, leaving them with a goal differential of –44. The team’s 80 points represented a 21-point leap from the prior season’s 59 points. But despite the upward trajectory, Anaheim was eliminated from playoff contention in early April, extending their postseason drought to a seventh-straight year.
The Ducks’ internal ambitions appear to be escalating. With a revamped coaching staff (Joel Quenneville now behind the bench) and some added veteran pieces, the goal is to push toward a realistic postseason berth in 2025-26. But that push will rest heavily on whether players like Dostál can mature into consistency.
Dostál’s 2024-25: promise and growing pains
In 2024-25, Dostál appeared in 54 games (49 starts), and logged a 23-23-7 record with one shutout. His goals-against average (GAA) was 3.10, and his save percentage (SV%) was .903. That mark made him one of only two NHL goalies aged 24 or younger last season to reach at least 20 wins (the other being Dustin Wolf).
Those raw numbers suggest a workhorse season, but also highlight limitations. A .903 SV% is modest, and a 3.10 GAA is hardly elite in today’s NHL. Many times, Anaheim’s defensive inconsistencies and lineup flux forced Dostál into high-danger scenarios that elevated his workload (1,467 saves over 3,058 minutes) and exposed him to volatility. In other words, the 2024-25 campaign was as much a stress test as it was a proving ground.
Off the ice, management clearly viewed the season as sufficient validation: Dostál signed a five-year extension on July 17, 2025, worth US $32.5 million, with a $6.5 million cap hit per season. That commitment signals Anaheim’s confidence in him as their future. Meanwhile, longtime Ducks starter John Gibson was traded to Detroit in late June 2025 in exchange for Petr Mrazek and draft capital. That move effectively cleared the path for Dostál to take over the net.
Workload and consistency
In 2024-25, Dostál already showed he can handle a heavy schedule: 49 starts is a substantial load for a goaltender so young. But going forward, he will likely need to eclipse that routinely and deliver night in, night out. There will be no guaranteed bailouts; his margin of error narrows now that there is no co-number one.
A first goal: he must cut down on the big disaster games. When Anaheim’s defensive corps is stretched, quality-of-life games become critical. The ability to limit the bleeding in bad matchups, especially on the road, will often dictate how far the Ducks push.
Elevating Rate Stats
A .903 save percentage last year is serviceable, but nowhere near the level expected of top-tier starters. To make the leap, Dostál will need a bump into at least the .915–.920 range, or even higher in stretches, to compensate for goals allowed in lower-leverage situations.
Better rebound control, rebound placement, tighter cross-crease tracking, and more disciplined positioning on breakaways or odd-man rushes will all be essential. The gap between elite and average often lies in those small details under fatigue.
Mentorship and Development
Gone is the shadow of Gibson; in its place is the full weight of responsibility. But while Dostál in 2025-26 must lead, he cannot do it entirely on his own. The organization’s goalie coaching, video review, and internal feedback loops will be critical, and veteran voices in the locker room, as well as advisors, are likely to help him manage emotional and strategic swings.
In other words, his mental stamina will be as tested as his physical. A young goaltender’s identity forms under duress, and 2025-26 is ripe for that test.
Supporting Cast and System Impact
Dostál’s success cannot be isolated; the Ducks must improve defensively and structurally. Anaheim’s roster shifts, with recruits such as Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund added to bolster offense, suggest that the front offices believe they can carry more stable two-way balance. But unless the defensive zone execution improves, even a capable Dostál will suffer from overexposure.
Coach Quenneville’s system choices, especially in transition and coverage of danger zones, will directly influence how often Dostál faces high-danger shots. The synergy between his glove or angle positioning and team structure will have to sharpen.
Predictions and Expectations for 2025-26
Over the next season, Dostál’s trajectory is projected to unfold as follows.
1. Wins, workload, and usage
Dostál is expected to start between 55 and 60 games, barring injury, effectively anchoring the Ducks’ season. That kind of usage would mark the transition from “emerging gloveman” to “reliable starter.” Barring catastrophe, Dostál is projected to finish with 30 to 32 wins.. That would be a reasonable uptick from his 23–23–7 line, reflecting both stronger support and accumulation of consistency.
2. Save percentage and goals against
If he can inch up to a .915 to .918 SV%, that would significantly boost Anaheim’s competitiveness. Realistically, he is projected to land in the .912 to .916 band, with occasional stretches higher or lower depending on defensive steadiness.
His GAA will likely come down from 3.10, with projections falling between 2.70 and 2.95, depending heavily on volatile games. A few blowout nights could drag him upward, but with a maturing defense, he can keep it under 3.00 more often.
3. Milestones and accolades
- Shutouts: Between three and five shutouts are projected across the season.
- All-Star or recognition: If Anaheim remains in the playoff hunt, he could garner votes or recognition for midseason honors, especially if he strings together dominant stretches.
- Durability: The biggest unstated milestone is simply staying healthy, avoiding nagging injuries or mental fatigue. He is projected to finish close to full strength barring unforeseen issues.
4. Team impact and playoff chase
If Dostál does hold his own, he gives Anaheim a legitimate backbone to push deeper into the standings. Given the Ducks’ recent 21-point improvement and new additions, they may very well contend for a wildcard spot by season’s end. When all is aligned, offensive production, defensive maturity, and goaltender steadiness. The Ducks might inch into the 7th to 9th spot range in the West.
If Dostál falters, however, Anaheim’s margin for error will evaporate quickly; they cannot afford to slide back into mediocrity in their division.
Risks, wildcards, and what to watch
No projection is safe, here are the key risks or wildcards that could disrupt or accelerate Dostál’s path.
- Injury risk or workload burnout: A heavy starter load at age 25 could strain his body. If fatigue sets in, he might experience the classic slump in certain months.
- Defensive regression: If the Ducks fail to tighten their defensive structure, he could be overrun, no matter how technically sound he is.
- Mental swings: Young goaltenders often go through dramatic confidence swings. A stretch of costly goals might shake momentum.
- Lack of alternate support: Without a reliable secondary netminder, Anaheim may be left vulnerable if Dostál needs a rest day. Injuries or inconsistency from the backup could force overuse.
- League shot volume and pace: The NHL continues to push faster, more scoring-chance driven hockey. If scoring spikes, even incremental improvements may not be enough without systemic support.
Final Take: A Stepping Stone Year or a Leap?
The 2025-26 season is a foundational year for both Dostál and the Ducks. If he delivers consistent, above-average play (.912+ SV%, GAA around 2.80, 30+ wins), it will cement his status as a true franchise netminder. That, in turn, gives Anaheim a stable base from which to build playoff pushes in subsequent years.
He will almost certainly be tested, by fatigue, by bad nights, and by pressure when the team falters. But that is precisely the crucible in which goaltenders are defined. For Dostál, this is less a gamble than a necessary evolution. The Ducks have bet on him heavily and now, he must respond. Expect growing pains, flashes of brilliance, and a season that may well define whether Anaheim’s goaltending future is secure.
Main Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – Imagn Images
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