Jack Hughes has been showing signs of returning to the form he showed in the 2022-23 season, thanks to his chemistry with his wingers.
Professional athletes are regularly subjected to overwhelming amounts of scrutiny, and both fans and writers are victims to the whims of short-term memory. There are two such cases of that in this year’s New Jersey Devils team in Dougie Hamilton and Jack Hughes, who are both coming off of surgery. Dougie, in his recovery from surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle, was just off enough to miss out on some early-season point production, missing shots by centimeters or not getting enough on his slap shot. Jack, meanwhile, seemed to be moving a bit slower than usual to start the season. Both of their point production paces have picked up over the last week or so, which should not be much of a surprise. As it turns out, recovering from surgery and returning to play at a high-level in an intense, action-packed professional sports league is not easy work. But now that they are settled in, the rest of the season should mostly be business as usual. Today, I want to zero in on Jack and the development on his line over the last couple weeks in Ondrej Palat.
The First Ten Games
In his first ten games of the season, Jack Hughes fared well enough at even strength, but he was not the usual game-breaking player that he had been prior to his shoulder injury troubles. According to Natural Stat Trick, he was even in the most important category, with the Devils scoring 7 and giving up 7 with him centering lines in the first ten games. This was not unearned, as the Devils had a 52.27 xGF% and 52.11 CF% with him on the ice. This was enough to keep the Devils in games, though they relied heavily on Nico Hischier and Timo Meier to carry the load during these games.
In those first ten team games, Hughes and Palat only played 35:34 together, being outshot 16 to 18 and outscored 1-2 while sporting an xGF% of 45.93. Simply put, things were not looking good for that combination, which contributed to Palat spending a few games on the fourth line. Jack had two goals and seven assists in these 10 games, which does not seem particularly poor. But when combined with his weakened expected results, the fact he was held off the scoresheet in five of the first ten games, and his struggle to score goals early on, fans noticed the lessened production. It’s not quite a 100-point pace.
Palat and Hughes Over The Last Seven Games
While they have been together for a bit longer than six games now, the Hughes line has been on fire over their last seven appearances together. In 66:37 of five-on-five time over those games, Hughes and Palat have a 56.55 CF%, a 44-37 shots advantage, and a 63.97 xGF% while being even in goals with opponents at 3-3. Hughes has also been incredibly away from Palat during this time, with a 63.64 CF% and 79.92 xGF% with a 1-0 goal advantage in 27:28 of five-on-five ice time. Some of this time away from Palat is ice time with Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt in must-score situations, so it makes sense that his numbers are elevated, but they still point to a much better level of play for Hughes.
Hughes still struggled to get on the scoresheet in some of the last several games, but he has been showing much more explosiveness with nine points in his last seven games. Of course, six of those points came in the last three games — games in which the Hughes line has gotten their possession and shot share percentages over 60% while maintaining their expected goals ratio. Now with seven goals and 11 assists in 18 games, Hughes is shooting more like he was prior to his shoulder surgery, and I believe he will be back to a 2022-23 production pace by the end of the month.
All of his production may not be from even strength play, but I believe these things are linked. If Jack is ripping it up at even strength, and a goalie happens to be making a lot of saves, I will have a lot more faith that he scores on a power play than on a night where he looks like he cannot get anything going offensively. Athletes are people of habit and repetition, and good habits lead to better, more sustainable results.
How Palat Has Been Helping
I will admit that I was very worried about Ondrej Palat in the first several games. His lines were underperforming, and he did not look very fast or with it on the ice. But it appears that those who argued he was miscast in a bottom six role — that he would actually look better in a complementary role for top players — were actually correct. It’s hard to avoid the ravages of time, but Palat’s play over the last week or so may be a bit of an indication that other factors — being away from the team for a couple days, adjusting to a new coach, and not gelling with bottom six forwards — were holding him back from contributing.
Of course, Palat still only has four points on the season. But his fitting on the line is less so about whether he can return to being a 40 or 50-point player, and more about whether he can help Jack Hughes get back to being a 40 or 50-goal scorer. If the latter comes true again this season with Palat on his wing, the veteran forward will have done his job well.
It’s these little things — being in the right place in the right time and helping Hughes work along the wall — that makes Palat a good fit for that line. With Palat doing a lot of the dirty work with Jesper Bratt, who has been a much more physical presence on the forecheck this year, Jack has an easier time controlling possession with teams being unable to zero in on him as a puck carrier. They could try to force him to play in the corner, but Palat often comes with a quick stick to keep the Devils in control. He’s a magnet for the puck in dirty areas, and I think this line can continue to put up ridiculously high possession and expected goals numbers. Hopefully, the real goals follow.
Your Thoughts
What have you been thinking about Ondrej Palat in the top six so far this season? Do you think he will still be there, come playoff time? Do you see a difference in him this year over last year? As for Jack, were you worried earlier in the season? How have these last few games affected your evaluation of his performance so far? Where do you think he will end up, given the games we have seen so far? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.