Howdy gang. Hope all your summers have delivered on your hopes and dreams. There is a crispness in the air, kids are going back to school, and hockey is almost here.
Fall is the undisputed best season, argue with a wall.
Offseason Report Card: Incomplete
As the season approaches, this team is still incomplete. Several names have been discussed as trade targets not a single one has moved. Names like McTavish, McCann, Robertson, Kyrou, Rust, and Rakell have all been floated around – but I really think a lot of that has been wish casting by insiders. The McCann rumors were quashed yesterday by Seattle, Kyrou had a NMC kick in, Dallas unloaded Marchment and are cap compliant, and Verbeek and Dubas are seemingly looking to extort a weak market. The insiders that kept bringing these guys up also promised offer sheets and chaos and we got the complete opposite. One of them was so bad at speculating he went to coach HS hockey.
I continue to think GMs have just held their cards and are rolling into the season as is to see how things play out. We may see adjustments earlier in the season than normal and I look at American Thanksgiving as a traditional demarcation of haves and have nots and seems like a natural place for teams start evaluating reality. With the Olympic break and what I assume will be an informal moratorium on trades, I would think teams would be eager to make moves early.
Or… they just may continue not doing anything. Good times, this is FUN we’re having FUN.
That Dead Horse Looked At Me Funny
With the current marketplace at a standstill and our lineup gaps remaining the same, I wanted to look at how successful teams are constructed from a production perspective and how the Devils compared based on 24-25 goal scoring. The original intention was to build out an archetype of the guys we should be looking at as the season progresses, but I also added in what we need in-house as well. I got a little carried away so this may require a few trips to the stall.
5v5 scoring was our biggest and most glaring fault as has been discussed a wee bit (also see: 9 shutouts). I do think turning over the depth forward group will help bolster that area. However, we also need to see complete seasons from Jack, improvement from Timo and Mercer, consistency from Noesen and Palat, growth from Cotter, and Gritsyuk to become a legit thing.
All of the big names floated out there work great in theory, and I wouldn’t kick any of them out of bed. I do see some deployment complications that could lead to contract value issues.
Walk With Me
A really important element of elite player production is just how much comes from the Power Play. One of the crazier stats from the 2024-25 season was Brandon Hagel of the Lightning was the first player to score 30 goals with zero PP goals in 40 YEARS. FORTY!! True Story. Power play time, particularly first unit time, can add 20-40% to a player’s totals which can in turn inflate subsequent contracts.
You don’t need to look much further in seeing this issue play out in our own backyard with Timo Meier. He totaled a largely ceremonial 72 PP minutes during his PP2 run from October 22nd to March 5th, while Noesen (whom the Devils swapped for Meier) totaled 132 PP minutes in that same span. For more context, that is a about a minute more of PP time per game. The 2nd unit got some real scraps this past season, largely scuffling along in the last 30-45 seconds of opportunities. It was no coincidence Timo’s scoring picked up once Jack got hurt in March and he moved up and he got more PP ice time, more offensive puck touches, and got to rip one timers from that right flank.
I have seen the suggestion that he start the season on PP1, but not sure the Devils would do that considering we had the #3 ranked PP in the league at 28%. It was also 3rd based on Goals/60 and 1st in xG/60 (10.3). Since 08-09 (or as far back as Moneypuck tracks https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm) there have been only 3 powerplays to exceed 10 xG/60 – so the Devils had one of the 3 most dangerous PPs in the past 2 decades. Would you change that? I wouldn’t.
Aside from the Power Play, Timo also saw an overall ice time decline from his peak years in SJ of about 2 minutes per game. As has been said before, he went from being “the guy” in SJ to the 4th guy in NJ. This ice time decline also coincided with his overall production: 15% drop of in goal scoring and 30% drop off in point production form his peak rates in SJ to last season in NJ.
Basically, we have the perfect statistical proxy for “guy who historically got PP1 time, but would likely get moved to PP2 and see a production fall-off” when evaluating the type of top 6 wing we should probably avoid.
Get to The Point, Tim
I will, promise, but as I said I got carried away setting the table here. I think it is instructive to look at how this power play scoring dynamic plays out for some of the most productive teams in the league. This worked out great for me, because there are exactly 10 teams that were top 15 in scoring and top 15 in points last season, so it’s nice and neat which feeds my OCD. You will notice the Panthers are not on this list, they largely laid in wait all season until the playoffs. For funsies (or the sads) I also included the Devils (who were not in that top 10):
The story gets worse for the Devils at 5v5. Aside from Winnipeg (77%), the Devils really lag behind in 5v5 scoring relative to the elite teams in the league (75%). Every other of these teams’ 5v5 goal total was at or above 80% of their total scoring.
The Devils scored 179 5v5 goals vs an average of 218 for the top 10 teams, or 2.2 vs 2.7 per game. To truly slide into this elite tier ideally we need to find ½ goal per game, or almost 40 more goals next season at 5v5.
Where Do We Find 40 More Goals
First things first, I’m ignoring the D Corps and this comparative analysis is looking exclusively at the forward group. Since it seems we are rolling into the season as is, we need to go to church and pray for upward regression across the board from our current guys: Jack stays healthy, Timo isn’t snakebit, Dawson finds it again, and Jesper adds a few more.
1/3 of Jack, Bratt, Nico and Noesen’s goal scoring came on the Power Play, only Vegas and Edmonton’s PP1 units had percentages at or over 30 amongst the top 10 teams. Edmonton has these guys named Connor and Leon that I would describe as a outliers, and what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.
In a perfect world those 4 on the top unit also add some more 5v5 goal scoring outside of the power play.
Looking at the returning guys that played a full season they collectively shot below expected with Nico and Cotter they only two who were above:
For context Timo was ranked 7th in even strength xG overall. There are 32 forwards over 20 xG, 115 over 15 xG, and 273 over 10 xG, so all 7 of these returning Devils players fall in the top half of the league at chance generation at even strength.
Obviously they all won’t produce the exact same, but using 24-25 as a barometer if the above players shoot at their expected rates, we are looking at adding 7 additional 5v5 goals.
So, we would need 33 more to get to that 40.
Jack missed a big chunk of the season and Glass was a TDL acquisition, so using the scoring rates for both last season, I am adding 6 for Jack (20 goals in 62 games = 26 over 80) and conservatively adding 9 for Glass (2 goals in 14 games = 11 over 80).
18 to go.
While in church we might as well add a prayer for the addition by subtraction to fully work and Gritsyuk to be a thing. With Brown and Dadonov in and the cardio gang out, we are gaining another 6 5v5 goals based on their 24-25 stats. In an effort to stay realistic I will conservatively give Gritsyuk 7 5v5 goals, so an additional 13 from these 3.
5 to go.
Finding the Right Outside Solution
Close, but still below average for that elite tier. That’s also a lot of ifs and maybes, so we all want a new top 6 wing to both help insulate this lineup and help slot some of the supporting cast down the lineup more appropriately. We need to find someone who at a minimum can pot 15-20 5v5 goals and not rely on PP1 time to goose their production. There were 68 players that scored 15-20 5v5 goals last season and 55 of them are not going anywhere or are pure centers (that’s a blog for later, maybe).
Including the rumored guys I mentioned before your legs fell asleep, there are 14 guys that fit this bill:
Kyrou, McCann, and Barbashev have all been pulled off the table by their respective clubs.
DeBrincat is part of Detroit’s.. “future.”
Foegele is a really underrated part of LA’s team, and since they are still well in contention (even with some questionable FA moves) I don’t see him going anywhere.
Terry is a core piece on Anaheim, and I really think this standoff with McTavish will end with a long term deal there, they’d be crazy to let him go.
Rossi’s situation is a little murkier, and he wants a bigger role – which he won’t get in NJ.
I am wary of Robertson, simply because his contract is up after next year and is projected to command north of $10MM. I don’t think we should have $20MM on PP2 with Timo and Robertson, but if Fitz can find a way I won’t get mad about it.
Rust and Rakell are both great 25-26 options, but both are on the older side (33 and 32), have 3 years left on their deals at $5MM+.
The guy that I continue to come back to on this list is Alex Tuch. It was reported that he is likely going to talk extension with Buffalo and he is a Western NY guy, but if they start off the season poorly he might want out and we should be first in line, at $4.75MM for next season that is a STEAL. Take all my money.
Tolvanen is an under the radar guy that really intrigues me. He was drafted as scorer by Nashville, but took some time to develop and hit a stride in Seattle. He is also an absolute menace, registering 200+ hits the past two seasons and is built like a fire plug. Seattle is the most wtf are they doing team in the league and I see a real opportunity to swoop in and grab him while he’s only 26 and in the last year of a $3.475MM deal.
Once you pare down the options that meet our needs, look at what is actually available, I can see why the Devils have hit a wall in trying to upgrade the top 6. I’m hoping I am right and some of these guys can be revisited once the season starts/at the deadline.
Who are you into? Did I get too deep in the weeds here?
LGD