Game Preview #70: New Jersey Devils vs. Winnipeg Jets

Coming off a feel-good win over a reeling Penguins team, the Devils are back in action as they host the Winnipeg Jets

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (33-32-4) vs. Winnipeg Jets (44-19-5)

The Time: 7:00pm ET

The Broadcast: MSGSN

Last Devils Game

New Jersey played host to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday night. The Devils continued their dominance over the Pens, skating away with a 5-2 win. Jake Allen was stellar, stopping 36 shots and making more than a few terrific saves, while Timo Meier and Dawson Mercer led the offense with two goals apiece.

Last Jets Game

Winnipeg was also in action on Tuesday, coming out with a 4-2 victory over the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Mark Scheifele registered a hat trick, while former future-Devil Connor Hellebuyck made 39 saves on 41 shots.

Last Devils-Jets Game

All the way back on November 14th, the Devils travelled to Winnipeg. It was not a fun game for New Jersey, as they fell to the Jets 6-3 in Manitoba.

Timo Time

Better late than never I guess. Timo Meier has been red hot over the past month or so. In his last 13 games, Meier has produced 16 points, including 11 goals. More than the point totals though, Meier is driving play better and producing more overall value from an analytical standpoint. I think Nico Hischier said it best recently:

The speculation around Meier is that he’s been playing hurt all season long. Now he appears to be healthy for the first time in 2023-24. Just based on the admittedly flawed eye test, he looks a step faster, more willing to engage physically, and generally more confident. If this is the Meier we can expect through the remainder of his contract (a big if, but certainly a realistic one) then we’re in for something special.

It’s obviously a shame that Meier returning to being Meier has come when the rest of the team has fallen apart and fumbled away any chance at the postseason. But looking at the long term view, Meier reigniting his game would be massive for next season.

Different Coach, Different Approach?

Alexander Holtz has been a lightning rod of debate this season. From his overall game to his usage and deployment, this is a topic that seems to get Devils fans juiced up.

I’m not going to present an argument either way on the matter, because first of all I don’t think I’d be able to persuade anyone to think like me if they don’t already, and second of all I honestly don’t even know what to think about this anymore. Instead I’ll just present interim head coach Travis Green’s comments from yesterday about Holtz. It seems to run a little counter to how former coach Lindy Ruff treated and talked about Holtz, though I suppose even that’s up for debate too:

Think of all this what you will.

Lineup Update

Here’s how the Devils looked in practice yesterday:

So it looks like John Marino will miss a second straight game, and Jack Hughes will not practice but will be fine to play tonight.

Side note: Are we close to Hughes being shut down? He’s clearly taking a page out of Meier’s playbook, playing at far less than 100%. I give him a lot of credit for gutting it out down the stretch of the season, but the Devils aren’t making the playoffs this year. So I wonder if it’s in the best interest of both Hughes and the club to shut him down before he hurts himself any worse.

Locking It Down

The Winnipeg Jets are having a wonderful season, plain and simple. They entered the campaign with middling expectations, and have outperformed them by quite a bit. At 93 points through 68 games, they’re currently tied atop the Central Division, but hold the tiebreaker due to games in hand.

If you’re looking for one reason above all else for Winnipeg’s success this season, look no further than the fact that the Jets have given up the fewest goals in the NHL. Winnipeg has allowed 159 goals through their 68 games (according to NHL.com at least. Per Hockey Reference, they’ve allowed 160 goals. I’m not sure what the discrepancy is about, maybe shootout goals?). Only the Florida Panthers are close to them, and Winnipeg is head and shoulders above everyone else in the Western Conference.

It all starts with Connor Hellebuyck, who is once again having a stellar season. In 50 games thus far, Hellebuyck is 32-15-3 with a .923 sv% and a 2.30 GAA. According to Natural Stat Trick, Hellebuyck is the runaway leader in Goals Saved Above Expected in the entire league at 29.41 GSVA in all situations. Second on the list is Vancouver’s Thatcher Demko at 18.27. Whether you look at the traditional numbers or the fancy stats, Hellebuyck has been the cream of the crop in the crease this campaign (believe me if I could find a way to make that sentence more alliterative, I would have).

Meanwhile the skaters in front of Hellebuyck are no slouches either. Again per NST, Winnipeg is a pretty good defensive team at 5-on-5, hovering around the top-10 in xGA/60. Not world beaters by any means, but still very good at limiting chances.

And by the way, the Jets may give Hellebuyck the night off tonight, but that won’t mean they’re doomed in net. Backup Laurent Brossoit has been stellar in his 18 games played as well. Brossoit enters with a 12-4-2 record, a .927 sv%, and a 1.99 GAA. Natural Stat Trick has him credited with 11.72 GSAA at all strengths.

So to recap, the Jets’ team defense is quite good, Hellebuyck has been unbeatable, and in the event New Jersey does not see Hellebuyck tonight, Brossoit is more than capable of shutting them down himself. I think it’s safe to say the Devils will have a hard time getting pucks in the net tonight.

What To Expect

Here’s how the Jets lined up in their win against the Rangers on Tuesday:

There is a ton of firepower on that first line between Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele. And would you look at that, there’s old pal Tyler Toffoli on the second line. In case you’re wondering how Toffoli has been doing since being traded to Winnipeg, he’s produced four goals and six total points in five games played. He was streaky during his time in New Jersey, and he appears to be on one of his hot streaks now.

Your Take

What do you expect out of tonight’s game? Do you think Meier will stay hot? Who on the Jets will you be watching closely? As always, thanks for reading!