Game Preview #67: New Jersey Devils vs. Edmonton Oilers

Coming off the biggest win of the season, the Devils look to keep the good times rolling against a top contender

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (35-25-6) vs. Edmonton Oilers (37-23-4)

The Time: 7:30pm ET

The Broadcast: ESPN+, Hulu, Devils Radio Network

Last Devils Game

In a crucial matchup on Tuesday, the Devils hosted the Columbus Blue Jackets, who entered just four points back of New Jersey in the Metropolitan Division standings. A three-goal first period keyed the Devils in a huge 5-3 victory over the surprising Blue Jackets, pushing New Jersey that much closer to securing a playoff berth.

Last Oilers Game

Edmonton was last in action on Monday when they kicked off their current road trip in Buffalo. Tage Thompson scored twice, including the eventual winner in the third period, to sink the Oilers in a 3-2 loss.

Last Devils-Oilers Game

We have to go all the way back to November 4th, when the Devils wrapped up their western Canada swing with a 3-0 victory over the Oilers. Jake Allen was story of that game, stealing two points for his team in a game mostly controlled by Edmonton.

In Case Of Emergency, Break Glass

It’s only been two games, but Cody Glass has been tremendous for New Jersey since general manager Tom Fitzgerald acquired him at the trade deadline. In his debut on Sunday, he scored a goal and led a dominant third line in a big win over the Flyers. Then on Tuesday, in the biggest game of the season for New Jersey, he collected two assists in 16:32 of ice time to help lead the Devils to victory once again.

Under the hood, some of the advanced numbers were split on Glass’ game on Tuesday. On the one hand, Natural Stat Trick had him at a 5-on-5 Expected Goals For% of 34.68%, fifth lowest on the team. His line as a whole with Erik Haula and Jesper Bratt fared poorly overall, as each of them individually had a 5-on-5 xGF% in the 30’s and the line as a trio posted a number of 33.92%, the only line underwater on Tuesday.

But on the other hand, another hockey analytics outlet, Hockey Stat Cards, thought Glass played quite well:

The fourth highest Game Score on the team (right behind Bratt, so the fancy numbers were torn on him as well). Perhaps I’m just being a homer, but I lean more toward the Hockey Stat Cards numbers. I was at the game on Tuesday, and from what I saw, Glass and his line did give up their fair share of premium chances (something even the tweet above reflects in his defensive impact) but they more than made up for it with premium chances of their own. Add to that the actual production, and I think Glass and his line had a great game.

Obviously Glass will not continue his 1.5 points per game rate, and he will not be able to replace the overall value of Jack Hughes. But if Glass can at least continue to be a competent middle-6 center, he can help the Devils nail down a postseason spot down the stretch of the season. Heck, perhaps he’s a long term answer for the Devils as well. He is a restricted free agent after the season, and he is a former sixth overall pick (in 2017, five slots behind Nico Hischier) so clearly there’s talent there. Maybe he can become what we all want Erik Haula to be as a defensively responsible third-line center who can chip in 35-40 points a year. But that’s a conversation for another day. It’s only two games, but what we’ve seen out of Glass has been very encouraging.

The Youngest Hughes Stepping Up

Much has been made about Jack Hughes being lost for the season, and rightfully so. But even though the Devils are without Jack’s services for the time being, they are still enjoying the stellar play of a Hughes on their roster.

Luke Hughes had a terrific rookie season last year, playing in every game while posting nine goals and 47 points, finishing third in the Calder Trophy voting. His underlying numbers were strong as well, with his 5-on-5 Corsi For%, Scoring Chances For%, and Expected Goals% all ranging from 52%-55%. Only his High Danger Corsi For% was below the breakeven mark at around 49.5%. But even with such an impressive freshman campaign, it was clear he could still use some defensive refinement.

Well in his sophomore season, Hughes has taken that next step toward becoming the all-situations monster the Devils envisioned when they took him fourth overall in the 2021 draft. His six goals and 31 points in 57 games thus far is almost exactly the same points per game pace as his rookie season, and his advanced stats are still quite strong, to the point where he’s no longer underwater in HDCF%. Meanwhile the defensive side of his game has taken a big step forward. Last year, Hughes was allowing 2.68 xGA/60 according to NST, while this year that number is down to 2.47 xGA/60. That might not be a huge leap, but it’s sign of solid progress. And just going by the eye test, it does seem like Hughes has really improved his positioning, stickwork, and defensive instincts. Not to mention the fact that his elite skating ability helps him erase plays that he has no business erasing.

The counting stats and underlying numbers might not give the impression that Hughes has taken a big step forward, but anyone who has watched the Devils a lot this season can tell you that he’s noticeably improved over his rookie campaign. Head coach Sheldon Keefe seems to agree, as while Hughes is averaging less time on ice overall this season as compared to last, a big part of that was Hughes being eased back into the lineup after an offseason shoulder injury. Hughes did not reach the 20-minute mark in six of his first seven games this season, and even well into December, he was consistently logging ice times in the teens.

But in the absence of Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler on the blue line, Keefe has given Hughes much more responsibility. Since the Devils returned from the Four Nations break on February 22nd, Hughes has reached 20 minutes of TOI in eight of nine games, including the last seven in a row. In fact over that stretch, he’s averaging 23:11 TOI, which is squarely in the range of a #1 defenseman. He’s also put up nine points in those nine games as well, albeit only one of them being a goal.

Hughes was a big part of the Devils’ defense corps before Hamilton and Siegenthaler went down, but now he’s become the indispensable blueliner. If he continues to develop at his current trajectory, we may be looking at a future Norris Trophy winner. But in the here and now, the Devils will be counting on Hughes to help them lock down a postseason spot as the season enters its final stages.

Stating The Obvious

Do I even need to tell you that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are having outstanding seasons? I feel like it’s just a waste of time because everyone knows how great they are, but I’ll discuss them briefly anyway.

McDavid comes in with 24 goals and 82 points in 58 games played. Perhaps not the level of goal-scoring we usually see out of McDavid, but 82 points in 58 games is still absurd. Meanwhile, Draisaitl is having an even more absurd campaign. He enters this game leading the NHL with 46 goals, to go along with 97 total points, in 64 games. Sheer lunacy.

And in case you thought they might just be putting up points without actually controlling the run of play…you’d be wrong. According to Natural Stat Trick, Draisaitl’s 5-on-5 CF%, SCF%, HDCF%, and xGF% all range from 58%-60%. McDavid’s numbers are basically the same, all in the 57%-60% range.

Long story short, McDavid and Draisaitl are pretty good. The Devils need to put a lot of effort into containing them tonight, or they will lose. Plain and simple.

The Lead Dog Of The Blue Line

After Draisaitl at 97 points and McDavid at 82, there’s actually a pretty steep drop off to number three on the Edmonton roster. That would be defenseman Evan Bouchard and his 12 goals and 51 points. And as an aside, after him there’s another moderate drop to longtime Oiler Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (16 goals, 39 points). From there the scoring distribution smooths out a little bit. Edmonton has some decent depth, but they still remain a top heavy team, at least as far as point production goes.

Anyway, Bouchard is a polarizing figure in Edmonton. He’s a player that has an elite offensive game, and who the advanced numbers absolutely love (much like McDavid and Draisaitl, all of Bouchard’s rate stats are in the upper-50’s, in his case between 57%-60%). And yet he has a tendency to make some really, really bad and noticeable defensive mistakes. Truly the Oilers’ answer to Damon Severson.

Obviously I’m not watching Bouchard as closely as Oiler fans, but from everything I see in his stats, as well as the times I actually have seen him play, Bouchard is a stud. Yes I have seen him make the occasional boneheaded play in the defensive end, but the rest of his game more than makes up for it. And for what it’s worth, Edmonton head coach Kris Knoblauch seems to think Bouchard is far from a liability as well, seeing as how Bouchard leads the Oilers with an average time on ice of 23:32, almost a full minute more than second place Mattias Ekholm’s 22:36. Bouchard might not be on the level of a McDavid or a Draisaitl, but he is yet another big time weapon at Edmonton’s disposal, and the Devils need to have a gameplan to contain him as well.

The Oilers’ Odyssey

One weird quirk of the Oilers’ schedule that stood out to me: This is Edmonton’s second easy coast trip since the Four Nations break.

Right out of the break in late February, the Oilers embarked on a five-game swing that took them through Philadelphia, Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina. Then they returned to Alberta for a three-game home stand before jetting right back to the east coast. They played in Buffalo a few days ago, then after tonight they’ll battle the two other New York teams before returning home. They don’t visit the east again after this.

Talk about a brutal travel schedule. I have to imagine all the travel and time zone changes (not to mention Daylight Savings Time throwing things off even more) has to be getting to the Oilers at this point. They actually lost their first four games out of the Four Nations break before steadying themselves, but losing to a woeful Buffalo team to begin this road trip is not a good sign. Perhaps the Devils can take advantage of some tired legs this evening.

Scoreboard Watching

Here are some of the most important games for the Devils around the NHL tonight:

Thanks to the win on Tuesday, New Jersey is now six points clear of the Columbus Blue Jackets, though Columbus does have two games in hand. The Jackets host the Vegas Golden Knights this evening at 7:00pm. Columbus currently holds the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.

The New York Rangers are eight points behind the Devils with one game in hand. They play at 8:00pm tonight in Minnesota against the Wild. The Rangers are currently two points out of a playoff spot.

The Ottawa Senators are three points behind the Devils with two games in hand, and they currently hold down the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. They play at 7:00pm ET against the Boston Bruins.

Your Take

What do you make of tonight’s game? Do you expect to see another strong performance out of Cody Glass or Luke Hughes? Aside from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who on the Oilers are you most interested in watching tonight? As always, thanks for reading!