The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils (3-1-0) vs. Edmonton Oilers (2-1-1)
The Time: 3:30pm ET
The Broadcast: MSGSN, Devils Hockey Radio
Last Devils Game
On Thursday, the Devils hosted the Florida Panthers in their home opener at The Rock, and two third period goals helped lift New Jersey to a 3-1 victory against the defending champs.
Last Oilers Game
Edmonton was also in action on Thursday, dropping a 4-2 decision to the Islanders. Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins were the goal scorers for the Oilers.
Hughes Heating Up
Jack Hughes scored his first goal of the season on Thursday. It wasn’t quite his patented snipe off a goalie’s mask and in, but it was pretty darn close:
Since his breakout 2022-23 season, Hughes has proven himself to be a terrific goal-scorer, which was a wonderful development considering he came into the league with a projection of a playmaking center that might not light lamps himself to a huge degree. Goals like these are just a reminder of how far he’s come in developing this part of his game.
Coming off yet another major shoulder injury (and surgery), Hughes hadn’t been awful over his first three games this season. But it did feel like he was just a little bit off, which was understandable given the circumstances. His play on Thursday did seem like a step in the right direction though. On the one hand, Natural Stat Trick had him at a meager 37% Expected Goals For% at 5-on-5. But on the other hand, another analytics model, Hockey Stat Cards, had him as one of the better Devils on the ice on Thursday:
Being at the game, I can tell you that based on my own personal eye test, he did seem to have that classic Jack Hughes jump. He was zipping all over the ice, making plays, and even causing headaches on the defensive end by picking lots of pockets and showing an active stick to disrupt plays. I still don’t believe he’s at full strength yet, but if Thursday is any indication, he’s getting there. And once he returns to full speed, it’s over for the rest of the league.
Timo Time And Dawg-son
In the GameScore chart above, you might notice the names Timo Meier and Dawson Mercer near the very top. They played huge roles in the win on Thursday. Meier of course was the big star, delivering the game-winning goal while chipping in an assist. Mercer only had one point, but it was one heck of a point:
Mercer’s diving poke kept that play alive, and Nico Hischier made sure that effort was rewarded. Meanwhile, Meier didn’t get an assist on that play, but don’t sleep on his contribution. That goal never happens without him batting a clearing attempt out of midair and right to Hischier. All three members of that line contributed in a big way on that score.
The one caveat is that while Meier and Mercer looked great based on the eye test and by one analytics model (GameScore), Natural Stat Trick had both players significantly underwater in 5-on-5 xGF%, each in the 30’s. Much like with Jack Hughes, I think this is one of those games where NST’s model does not do them justice. Meier and Mercer had great games, especially considering head coach Sheldon Keefe hard-matched their line against Florida’s top unit of Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart, and Carter Verhaeghe. Not to mention a heavy dose of the Panthers’ top defense pair of Gustav Forsling and Aaron “forearm to the chin” Ekblad. They absorbed that hellacious matchup and managed to outscore their opponents 2-0 in their minutes.
It’s very early of course, but Meier and Mercer have started the season very well. Meier, famous around these parts for only getting going in March, is now up to three goals and two assists in four games. Mercer has a pair of goals and two assists himself, which is great to see after two disappointing seasons in a row. Their line with Hischier has largely dominated opponents thus far. According to NST, in a little over 38 minutes of 5-on-5 play this season, here are their numbers:
Corsi For%: 62.64%
Scoring Chances For%: 60.00%
High Danger Corsi For%: 71.43%
Expected Goals For%: 65.06%
Absolutely stellar numbers. And again, keep in mind that Keefe usually deploys the Hischier line against other team’s top players. Granted, the first three games of the season have been on the road, so Keefe didn’t have full control to actually do that, but that also means that the Hurricanes, Lightning, and Blue Jackets were able to get the matchups they wanted against that trio. And Hischier, Meier, and Mercer have still bulldozed anyone in their path.
We all know what we’re getting from Hischier at this point, he is a model of high-level consistency. But Meier and Mercer have had their ups and downs over the past couple of seasons, so for them to start out so strong both in the box scores and on the spreadsheets is so encouraging.
Allen Recovers; Daws Returns
After leaving after two periods on Monday due to cramps, Jake Allen played in the home opener and appeared no worse for wear. Allen actually got through the full game this time, and he allowed only a single goal on 22 shots. According to Natural Stat Trick, Allen allowed that one goal on 2.59 Expected Goals, meaning he saved 1.59 Goals Above Expected. A very strong performance from New Jersey’s 1B, who now finds himself in the position of being the team’s 1A now that Jacob Markstrom will be out for multiple weeks.
To replace Markstrom, Nico Daws was recalled from Utica. At the time of this writing, we haven’t gotten definitive word on who gets the nod today, but I would guess Daws starts this afternoon. It’s not a back-to-back, but Allen is now in his mid-30’s, and he’s coming off a battle with cramps earlier this week. So since New Jersey is already dealing with goalie injuries, my guess is they’ll want to keep Allen as fresh as possible.
In limited time last season, Daws was stellar, posting a .939 sv% in six games (four starts). He only played a single contest in Utica this season before getting called up, and in that game he allowed one goal on 27 shots. The Devils must be thanking their lucky stars that Daws managed to clear waivers at the beginning of the season, as now they’ll be relying on him to help shoulder the load in net until Markstrom returns.
Power Play Rotation
One interesting wrinkle that I’ll be keeping an eye on this season is the rotation on the power play. This season, Keefe has stated that he plans on tweaking his man advantage unit depending on matchups. So for example he started the season with Hischier, Bratt, Mercer, and both Hughes boys on the first unit. Then he replaced Luke Hughes with Dougie Hamilton before going back to Hughes for the Florida game. He’s also replaced Mercer with Meier recently as well.
As of right now, I haven’t seen any indication on how Keefe plans to deploy his power play units against the Oilers. It seems to me that he wants to use Hughes against teams with aggressive penalty kills that look to push for shorthanded chances, and Hamilton against teams that are more inclined to pack the house and give New Jersey more space on the perimeter. I’m not familiar enough with Edmonton’s penalty kill scheme to know how they play, so I can’t really take a guess on who we’ll see when the Devils go to the power play this afternoon. I look forward to seeing how Keefe deploys everyone.
Noesen On The Horizon?
After reaggravating a groin injury during the offseason, Stefan Noesen was placed on IR to begin the campaign. He has been skating recently, though hasn’t been able to reenter the lineup quite yet. But his return might not be far off:
So according to Amanda Stein we won’t see Noesen today. But when he does return, it appears the plan might be for him to take Brian Halonen’s spot on the fourth line. To me, this makes a lot of sense. Eventually, Noesen might be ready for a bigger role in the top six. But coming off an injury and having not played since the postseason in April, I do think Noesen should be eased in once he’s ready to go. Plus I think his game fits a fourth line quite well, so it’s not like this would be trying to fit a round peg into a square hole either. New Jersey has suffered a raft of injuries in the early stages of the season, so getting Noesen back soon would help ease that burden.
Is Today The Day?
Dial your mind back to January of 2023 if you can. What do you remember about that time? It was almost three full years ago at this point so I don’t blame you if can’t exactly recall many details from way back then.
But I’ll tell you one thing that I remember: That was the last time New Jersey had a winning streak of at least four games.
The New Jersey Devils put together a five-game winning streak from January 7-16, 2023. Since that time, the Devils have been capped at three-game heaters. It is absolutely mind-blowing to me that this team went the rest of 2022-23, the entirety of 2023-24, and the entirety of 2024-25 without winning more than three games in a row. At some point it feels like they should have gotten to four consecutive wins just based on random luck.
And yet, nothing.
As far as I can tell based on my crack research, I believe New Jersey has had 13 different three-game win streaks since that five-game bender in January of 2023. And they’ve lost their next game every single time. Today, they have a chance to exorcise the demons.
Please, I’m begging you, Devils. Win a fourth game in a row. It’s been far, far, far too long.
Connor McDavid
Yes, this section is just called “Connor McDavid”. He is the best hockey player on planet Earth, so he deserves his own section.
At this point, we all know what we’re getting out of McDavid. Be prepared to see him skate faster than everybody else. Be prepared to see him stickhandle better than everybody else. Be prepared to see him make plays that nobody else is capable of making. If you’re new to the game, how will you know which one Connor McDavid is? He just moves different. You’ll know him when you see him.
As far as this season goes, I have to admit I’m a little more concerned than usual about McDavid wrecking today’s game (and that’s saying something). Why? Because McDavid has yet to score a goal. It’s very early obviously, but through four games he has five assists, but zero goals. If he comes in with a little extra motivation to get the goose egg off the board, or if he starts getting a little more puck luck, that would spell disaster for New Jersey.
What do the underlying metrics say about McDavid this season? According to Hockey Stat Cards’ GameScore metric, he is the 25th-most valuable forward in the league thus far. Meanwhile, his 5-on-5 numbers at Natural Stat Trick are excellent across the board. He has an xGF% of 66.67%, so whenever he’s on the ice, the puck is largely in the opponents’ end. So while he might not be lighting the lamp yet, he’s still dominating puck possession as always.
You know how dangerous Connor McDavid is. I know how dangerous Connor McDavid is. Everyone in hockey knows how dangerous Connor McDavid is. He needs to be the first, second, and third priority on the gameplan for Sheldon Keefe and the Devils. I would assume the Hischier line and the Hughes-Pesce pairing will draw the McDavid assignment this afternoon. God speed to them.
Top Heavy
Aside from McDavid, there’s also this guy by the name of Leon Draisaitl that plays for the Oilers. He’s pretty good too. Since McDavid and Draisaitl have become teammates, they’ve spent most of their time anchoring their own lines. If the Oilers really need a goal, you might see them take a shift together, but most of the time they’re separated.
But over the years, various Oilers head coaches have gone stretches where they played the two superstars together, and right now is one of those times. With Zach Hyman out to begin the season, Edmonton head coach Kris Knoblauch has decided to put all of his star power onto the top line. And as you can imagine, McDavid and Draisaitl are a dominant 1-2 punch this season. According to Natural Stat Trick, with McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice together at 5-on-5, Edmonton has an xGF% just below 75%.
So the goal for this afternoon? Weather the McDavid-Draisaitl storm and take advantage of the rest of the Oilers’ lineup. Here’s how they lined up against the Islanders on Thursday:
All due respect to Edmonton’s other nine forwards, that is not exactly a terribly imposing group. Their blueline is pretty good, especially the top pairing of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm, but again, outside of the very top, the rest of the group is good but not great. If New Jersey can find a way to keep the Oilers’ stars in check, the rest of the lineup should provide winnable matchups.
Edmonton’s Crease
During the McDavid era, one of the biggest sources of stress for Oilers fans has been the state of the team’s goaltending. Over the past couple seasons, Edmonton has turned to Stuart Skinner as their top guy. Meanwhile his backup this season (and last) is Calvin Pickard.
Skinner is quite the rollercoaster experience. He goes stretches where he stops everything, but far too often for Edmonton’s liking, he goes stretches where he simply fails to provide NHL-level goaltending. He’s been pulled numerous times in the playoffs the past two seasons, including stretches where he’s actually lost the starter’s role entirely. Pickard took over in the Stanley Cup Final last year, and that was more an indictment on Skinner than a vote of confidence in Pickard. Most of the time, Edmonton can outscore their goalie problems, but it is a serious Achilles heel for this team.
In the early going this season, however, Skinner and Pickard are going through one of their stretches where they are absolutely locked in. Through three games, Skinner is rocking a .921% sv% and a 1.97 GAA. Pickard has only played once, but it was a great game, as he stopped 14 of 15 shots in a win against Vancouver.
Skinner got the call on Long Island, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Pickard is in net this afternoon. Either way, the Devils will have to deal with a hot goaltender.
Your Take
What do you make of today’s game? Will Meier and Mercer stay hot? Will Hughes keep the momentum going after scoring his first goal of the season? Will this team finally give us a four-game winning streak? What are you expecting out of McDavid and the Oilers? As always, thanks for reading!
EDIT: I don’t know if this is just an issue with my own computer, but none of the tweets I’ve tried to embed are showing up on desktop. I do see them on mobile, however, so I’m not quite sure what the issue is. I tried editing the story a couple times but nothing has worked. In case anyone else is having issues seeing embedded tweets, I just linked them directly into the ends of the paragraphs themselves. Apologies for any technical difficulties.