The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (20-16-2) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (17-15-6)
The Time: 7:00pm ET
The Broadcast: MSG, Devils Radio Network
Last Devils Game
The Devils returned to action after the Christmas break on Saturday when they hosted the Washington Capitals. Jesper Bratt shook out of a deep scoring slump by potting two goals, but it wasn’t enough as New Jersey fell 4-3 in overtime.
Last Maple Leafs Game
Toronto last hit the ice on Sunday when they battled the Red Wings in Detroit. The Leafs blew a third period lead and eventually fell 3-2 in overtime.
Last Devils-Maple Leafs Game
Remember the Devils’ eight-game winning streak? The Maple Leafs were one of New Jersey’s victims during that stretch, as the Devils took a 5-2 decision in Toronto on October 21. Jack Hughes was the big story in that game, registering a hat trick to keep the Devils rolling.
Bratt Breaks Out
Saturday’s game must have felt like finding water in the desert for Jesper Bratt. After scoring one (1) goal over his previous 23 games, Bratt lit the lamp twice against the Capitals. His first came off a one-timer on the power play, and his second came on a seeing-eye shot from the point that slipped through a few bodies and in. They were not dazzling displays of skill and sharpshooting from Bratt, but beggars can’t be choosers.
As I look back on that 23-game stretch of goal-scoring ineptitude, I do think that while Bratt wasn’t playing his best, he was far from playing his worst. According to Natural Stat Trick, at 5-on-5, Bratt was a playdriving machine in that span (November 8 to December 23):
Corsi For%: 57.71
Scoring Chances For%: 56.82
High Danger Corsi For%: 54.25
Expected Goals For%: 58.55
Those are fantastic numbers. But it didn’t feel like he was playing as well as those stats would indicate, and I think a large part of that had to do with the fact that during that span, he got outscored 11-to-18 at 5-on-5. When you’re rocking a Goals For% around 38%, it’s hard to look good.
One two-goal game does not change everything. Bratt doesn’t have to score tonight, but he does need to put together a good stretch of games here where he’s finding the back of the net with some frequency. Or I suppose if he’s not scoring but he’s walking away with two or three assists per game or something, that works too. Either way, Saturday must have felt amazing for Bratt, and we can only hope it’s the start of a scoring bender.
It’s Come To This
To be fair, it’s not just Bratt that has been struggling to score. Since the eight-game winning streak ended, the entire team has been either suffering from impossibly bad shooting luck, or they are totally incompetent when it comes to beating goaltenders. Or both. The Devils are near the bottom of the league when it comes to goal-scoring, which is completely unacceptable for a team with this much talent.
The problem has gotten so bad that head coach Sheldon Keefe has resorted to treating his players like they’re a PeeWee squad:
Yes, the Devils have been so utterly helpless at scoring goals this season that Keefe feels the need to use shooter-tutors to help his team get better at it. I’m sorry, but if you’re a Devils player, that has to be incredibly motivating. You are a National Hockey League player, which means by definition you are one of the most elite hockey players on planet Earth…and your coach is basically telling you that you are so bad at your job that you need a youth hockey tool to get better? If this team has any pride, they would take that as a major wake-up call and find their offensive game in short order. I do believe that New Jersey has run into some horrible shooting luck that does not reflect their true skill or effort level. But they’ve also been a terrible shooting team for most of the season. Both can be true at once. It’s past time for this team to start beating goaltenders with regularity.
Weakness vs. Weakness
One interesting matchup I’ll be keeping a close eye on tonight is the Maple Leafs’ power play vs. the Devils’ penalty kill. Toronto enters with a power play conversion rate of 15.5%, a lowly 27th-best in the NHL. On the other side, New Jersey’s penalty kill has labored along at 76.0% efficiency, also 27th-best in the NHL.
If we take a look at the Natural Stat Trick numbers, we see that Toronto has averaged 4:27 per game on the man-advantage, which is the seventh-lowest rate in the league (New Jersey, by the way, is at 4:10 per game, second-lowest in the NHL ahead of only the Edmonton Oilers). So the Leafs struggle to even get to their power play in the first place. Once there, Toronto does a decent job at getting shots off, as they’re 12th in the league in CF/60 and SF/60 on the power play. Meanwhile their 8.57 xGF/60 is basically average, coming in at 17th-best in the league. So even though they don’t get much power play time, their process does not scream “One of the worst power plays in the league” based on the fancy stats.
So what’s the culprit for their power play struggles? How about a 9.93 shooting percentage, third-worst in the NHL. If you thought the Devils had bad shooters on their team, the Maple Leafs would like a word.
So while Toronto struggles with the man-advantage on the surface, their power play is more dangerous than it appears. Granted, it’s still not near the top of the league in any way, it’s merely average. But average is a lot better than the conversion rate would indicate. The Devils and their abysmal penalty kill better hope the Leafs’ shooting struggles last at least one more game.
The Matthews Panic Is Real
Auston Matthews has been one of the very best players in the world for some time now. He’s been a truly elite goal-scorer, an incredible play-driver, and thanks in large part to former Maple Leafs coach and current Devils bench boss Sheldon Keefe, he also turned himself into a defensive ace, with Selke Trophy votes (including a third-place finish in 2023-24) in the last six seasons to show for it. I don’t think I need to remind Devils fans how good Matthews is, considering he’s scored an astonishing 21 goals in 22 games against New Jersey in his career. He has absolutely destroyed the Devils since he came into the league, which is par for the course for one of the top players in the world.
But something appears to be wrong with Matthews this season. He enters tonight’s game with a mere 15 goals and 27 points in 33 games, far, far below his lofty standards. Under the hood, his 5-on-5 playdriving numbers are all well below his usual production as well. And perhaps most shocking of all, he did not register a point in his first game against New Jersey this year, which should have set off massive alarm bells in Toronto. It’s gotten so bad that professional outlets are starting to do deep dives on what the problem might be. The theories range from him playing injured to Leafs coach Craig Berube’s systems being bad to Matthews really missing Mitch Marner.
Whatever the reason, Matthews has not been Matthews this season. There’s still plenty of time for him to right the ship, both in this season and over the course of the rest of his career. But for the Devils’ sake, they better hope he doesn’t find his game tonight.
The Rest Of The Leafs
As far as the entire Maple Leafs team goes, this has certainly been a down year for them. They’ve lost more games than they’ve won, which they really have never done in the Auston Matthews era. Losing a player as good as Marner seems to have really hurt this team, even if it was truly time for him to go. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Maple Leafs are one of the worst playdriving teams in the NHL at 5-on-5:
CF%: 45.67 (30th in the league)
SCF%: 46.96 (27th)
HDCF%: 50.14 (18th)
xGF%: 48.64 (23rd)
So aside from HDCF%, Toronto is near the bottom of the league in every other category. It’s pretty alarming to see the Leafs this bad at controlling play. No wonder Leafs fans are calling for Craig Berube’s head.
As far as raw point production goes, William Nylander leads the way with 14 goals and 41 points in 33 games. Former captain John Tavares is still chugging along at the ripe old age of 35, with 15 goals and 35 points in 38 games. The top three is rounded out by Matthew Knies, who has 10 goals and 34 points in 35 contests. Toronto’s top point-scorer among defenseman is Morgan Reilly, who is up to five goals and 25 points through 37 games. No surprises in that group aside from maybe Knies, as Nylander, Tavares, and Reilly (along with Matthews) have made up the core of the Maple Leafs for a long time now.
Projected Lineup
Here’s how the Maple Leafs lined up in their last game:
You may notice one very notable absence there: William Nylander. He is considered day-to-day at last check, so his status bears monitoring as we get closer to gametime. If he can’t go, that’s a huge break for New Jersey.
Your Take
What do you make of tonight’s game? Do you expect Bratt to find the back of the net again? What about the rest of the offense, do you think we finally see a goal explosion for the first time in a while? Despite his struggles, how concerned are you about Auston Matthews wrecking the game tonight? As always, thanks for reading!