The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils (13-6-1) at the Philadelphia Flyers (10-6-3). Flyers blog: Broad Street Hockey.
The Time: 7:00 PM ET
The Broadcast: TV — MSGSN, Radio — Devils Hockey Radio
Low-Event Hockey
Head Coach Rick Tocchet is famous for his teams’ propensity for a dump-and-chase game, relying on the offensive contributions of just a few players to get his team some wins. Unfortunately for him, this means having the ninth-ranked total defense (by goals allowed per 60 minutes) is offset by having the 29th-ranked total offense. Out of the entire National Hockey League, only one team has a lower total goals per game: the New York Rangers. This is how low-event Flyers hockey has become under Tocchet:
- 5.58 total expected goals per game (29th)
- 5.25 total goals per game (31st)
- 48.74 total shots per game (32nd)
- 103.64 total Corsi events per game (32nd)
The Flyers have gotten some decent goaltending this season out of Dan Vladar, who has thrived in their low-event environment with a .911 save percentage and 2.37 goals against average in 12 starts. His backup, Samuel Ersson, has had a much tougher time with an .844 save percentage and 3.30 goals against average, though he has not played since November 14, when he gave up five goals on 17 shots in a shootout win.
Up front, Matvei Michkov, one of the most talented young players in the league, has struggled to produce under Tocchet. Some may point to his May car accident as a reason for his struggles, but that does not align with reports from the team, who said at the time that he was uninjured. Michkov, who played close to 17 minutes a night under the notoriously tough coach John Tortorella, has seen his minutes decrease to just under 15 minutes a night under Tocchet.
Not everyone has struggled in a new system, though. Trevor Zegras and Christian Dvorak, who played last year for the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens, respectively, are first and third in scoring on the Flyers. Zegras has six goals and 14 assists while Dvorak has six goals and seven assists. Both players are on track to blow past their career highs. Longtime Flyers Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier, and Owen Tippett are all having relatively normal seasons by their standards.
Where the Flyers can be beat is their bottom six. With Michkov struggling to score, most of the their bottom six forwards are lost. Garnet Hathaway has zero points in all 19 team games. Nic Deslauriers has zero points in nine games. Rodrigo Abols has one point in 14 games. Nikita Grebenkin has three points in 12. Defensively, the weak point is Nick Seeler, who plays nearly 20 minutes a night. During those minutes, the Flyers have been outscored 20 to eight at five-on-five. The only other player on the team with a similarly bad differential is Hathaway, who has not been on the ice for a Flyers goal yet this season, while the team has given up seven goals against in his minutes.
The Flyers have to be beat at five-on-five to reliably get wins against them. Their penalty kill has stopped 86.21% of man advantages against this season, so it’s not like the inevitable boarding, elbow, or dirty slash from the Flyers is certain to lead to a power play goal for the Devils. For that matter…
Things the Devils Need to Fix Tonight
In the month of November, the Devils are 2 for 22 on the power play. This particular dry spell does not stem from the Jack Hughes injury, but it’s certainly not going to help matters. Even with Dougie Hamilton now back in the lineup, Sheldon Keefe has not yet really shaken Luke Hughes from the first unit of the power play despite Luke only having three power play points this season. Just the a couple nights ago against Florida, Simon Nemec showed what a good right-handed shot could do from the left faceoff circle, firing a one-timer off the far post on what was almost another unbelievable game-tying goal. If that is how Hamilton needs to be incorporated into the power play, so be it.
And speaking of Dougie Hamilton, he is yet another defensive partner who cannot bring Dennis Cholowski to an NHL level of play. Cholowski still gives up the puck left and right for scoring chances against, and Cholowski still turns the puck over constantly in the offensive zone to kill momentum. The result of that is a 40.54 CF%, 35.05 xGF%, and a 6-13 scoring chance differential to go with the Devils getting outscored in their minutes together. So, do the Devils put Ethan Edwards in the lineup? No, they sent him back down.
My only blind hope here is that maybe it means the return of Brett Pesce is imminent. Whether it’s Ethan Edwards, Colton White, or Brett Pesce, though, Dennis Cholowski needs to play like he has been in the NHL for 165 games, or he needs to be benched. Ideally, though, Fitzgerald would see that not much seems to be working with Cholowski on the ice and that it is time to admit defeat on that trade. He does not provide what the Devils need, and his puck management skills are too poor to mask on a team without Jack Hughes. The only time Cholowski was even watchable this season has been when Colton White was on his right, making most of the defensive plays against the rush for him while hammering pucks out of the zone. If you ask Cholowski to make plays with the puck, it seems he will only burn the Devils.
This is problematic because if the Devils are starved for offense, they will need to look to Dougie Hamilton for help. And if Dougie Hamilton is saddled with Dennis Cholowski while rushing back a little too early from an injury, their play on the ice is not very likely to be pretty. So, even if Pesce is not back in the lineup tonight (he has now been out for over a month), it might be time to try Hughes-Hamilton or Dillon-Hamilton to try and spark something for the team. The definition of insanity is trying the same things over and over again and expecting a different result, so it’s time for Sheldon Keefe to try something new.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of tonight’s game against the Flyers? Do you think the Devils will bounce back? Or do you think more tough times are ahead? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.