The first round of the playoffs is nearly over, draft lottery hasn’t even happened, but I want to fast forward to unrestricted free agency and look at possibilities.
We just turned the calendar to May and the first round of the playoffs isn’t even over yet. The NHL draft lottery is next week and the Devils have a 3.5 percent chance of winning the first overall pick. Cue the Dumb and Dumber gif, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!” Still, I suspect it’s more than likely that Tom Fitzgerald moves the first round pick this offseason, either for a goalie or a badly needed upgrade in another position, whether that’s winger or defenseman. The team has a Stanley Cup window open now and they need immediate help rather than developing another kid to add to the roster. That being said, if they get lucky in the lottery and win first or second, perhaps the team re-thinks this.
The offseason should be interesting for the Devils and the reason I’m bringing this up today is Daily Faceoff did a very early listing of UFAs. I was more than intrigued by a few names on here. Now let me get a couple of caveats out of the way first before I dive in. I genuinely think that the UFA market is the worst place to spend time and resources. It usually isn’t very lucrative, except for the player involved. Devils fans don’t even need to look back very far to see an example of this in action. Remember how reportedly close the team came to signing Johnny Gaudreau before he signed for the Columbus Blue Jackets? And then the Devils panicked that they didn’t get Gaudreau and turned around and signed Ondrej Palat for five years at $6 million AAV? Many bemoan this signing on the regular now, especially since Palat has done little beyond this one epic moment to justify what the team pays him. I do think it’s rare than anyone beyond a goaltender pays off handsomely in the UFA market simply because you’re always paying for what that player has done in their career as opposed to what they “will do”. Many players who will reach UFA status often don’t get there as teams that have true difference makers rarely let them go to that market. Think Noah Hanifin for the Vegas Golden Knights. He extended with that team prior to hitting the UFA market. There’s something about hockey players and certainty with where they are and an overall sense of loyalty that other sports don’t have. It’s kind of romantic, but also frustrating. Also, as an aside, that Johnny Gaudreau contract is looking like one big albatross right now. Maybe it starts to pay off handsomely as the Columbus kids mature and inject some youthful energy on a line with him, but that market has been a mess for a while now. Also, Devils fans don’t need to look only at the Palat contract to be worried about UFAs. Dougie Hamilton, the Devils prized defenseman and someone they’re paying $9 million a year as the highest paid player on their roster, had a pretty terrible first season (partially due to injuries), a phenomenal second year, and then basically missed the large majority of his third season due to a torn pectoral that was surgically repaired. You’d hope that he comes back this year and is the player he was in 2022-2023, but it’s an unknown as of right now. So those caveats out of the way, here is a way-too-early look at UFA class this summer.
Steven Stamkos looks like he might hit the UFA market and I openly asked how he would look in Devils red taking seam passes from Jack Hughes in 2024-2025 on Twitter. But who am I kidding? This is hockey, so the likelihood that Stamkos actually makes it to market are slim, especially since he’s so entrenched in the Tampa community with a family and everyone with the Lightning organization calling him an assumed “Bolt for life”.
While I would love the Devils to get Jake Guentzel on Jack Hughes’ wing (if Hughes is healthy enough to even play center when he comes back from his shoulder sugery), the estimate for Jake according to Daily Faceoff is six years and AAV of $8 million. I don’t think the Devils could make that work, not with Dawson Mercer, Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec (Dougie’s injury accelerated the clock on that one) going to need to be extended soon. Not to mention if Tom Fitzgerald chases a big name goalie this offseason, there may be a long and pricey extension involved in that one, as well. Sure many Devils fans want Juuse Saros, but do they want him for eight more years (after his $5 million salary expires) at $8.5 million per year? Because that’s likely what it will command. That’s partly why I’m more into a deal for Jacob Markstrom due to his fixed cost for two more seasons. Regardless, even though this has the Devils with basically $22.4 million in cap space, a lot of that disappears relatively quickly when factoring everything I’ve mentioned. It’s tough to guess what the space will ultimately be without knowing whether Mercer goes bridge or Fitz decides to lock him up as a part of the core.
But two free agents that jump out at me are Anthony Duclair and Nikita Zadorov. Duclair shouldn’t be very expensive since he’s basically had one stellar season over a career that began in 2015. He scored 31 goals in 2021-2022 for the Andrew Brunette-coached Florida Panthers. Duclair has speed and is annoying to play against. He’s got a bit of that chirp after the whistle edge to him. But his speed would solve a gaping hole for the Devils roster who lost Tomas Tatar, Miles Wood, Yegor Sharangovich and Jesper Boqvist last offseason. Plus, I think his speed would mesh nicely with a Jack Hughes rush game. Yes, he’s not a big and bruising player, but the speed was sorely lacking and if the Daily Faceoff estimates are anywhere near accurate, Duclair will likely get a deal around 3 years at $3.25 million AAV. That helps solve a top six issue and leaves more money for elsewhere.
The other one is Nikita Zadorov. Look, Kevin Bahl could be this guy, but he just isn’t. Maybe he matures into it. Zadorov only had 176 hits this season, and Bahl had 151. That’s not that far off. But Bahl doesn’t play the same heavy and nasty game, post whistle that Zadorov brings. Zadorov will gladly drop the gloves and pound someone if they touch a Devil. Bahl didn’t seem to be that guy this season. Zadorov also outweighs Bahl by at least 20 pounds, so when he hits you, you know it. Craziest part of Zadorov’s game is that he’s also a very good skater. Maybe I’m jumping the gun on this one and with some decent coaching and a coach that demands a team that sticks up for each other and maybe Bahl morphs into this. But after the way this past season went, I don’t want hypotheticals any more. I want as much of a sure thing as possible.
Daily Faceoff claims that Zadorov will get a 4-year deal at $5 million per season (keep in mind that these estimates were done in January and I think Zadorov’s value has gone up since then). That seems reasonable enough to me and could work within the framework of the space the Devils have.
Those are the two names that jump out at me from this list. That being said, I can see a world in which Fitz prioritizes his bottom six depth and possibly even a top two center if he has any uncertainty over Jack Hughes ability to snap back to full health and play pivot again. He might need a guy who can play center and wing like Erik Haula, only someone with a lot more offensive ability than Haula. Elias Lindholm would probably be too much for the Devils, though Lindholm’s best years were at center for a player who is somewhat similar to Jack Hughes…Johnny Gaudreau. I just don’t think the Devils have the space for it. Chandler Stephenson will be there, but I’m also not sure the Devils have the ability to spend on him since the estimate on his contract is 5 years at $5.7 million AAV.
Some depth options on the list could be Dakota Joshua (fat chance Vancouver lets him go though), Yakov Trenin, Alex Wennberg and Teddy Blueger.
Again, UFA isn’t the best place to shop unless you’re looking to fill more minor holes on the team. But I do think if someone like Duclair or Zadorov can be had at reasonable rates and term, they are worth taking a swing at. Especially with the goaltending addressed and the right coach in place.
What do you think? Who are the most appealing names on the list?