After losing Game 5, the Edmonton Oilers now face elimination. Their 2025 playoff run is barely hanging on, and if they’re still going to win the Stanley Cup, they need their leader Connor McDavid to start firing again. It isn’t to say he’s been poor in this series. He’s got a goal and six assists in six games, so he’s getting on the scoresheet. Conversely, the Oilers need their captain to be better than he has been. With the weight of the world on this team going into Florida, McDavid needs to be better.
The 2025 Stanley Cup Playoff Run Needs Saving from Oiler Hero Connor McDavid
We’ve seen it countless times in this series, that McDavid is trying to go alone. He’ll skate up the middle of the ice and try to beat every Panther skater. If anyone else did that, they’d be criticized, but McDavid has done it before. Even in this series, if you think back to the assist to Draisaitl in Game 2. However, McDavid is starting to skate up cul-de-sacs looking for production, and it’s hampering the Oilers.
McDavid Has to be Smarter
The Florida Panthers make their money on the forecheck. They want to turn the Oilers around and fight in the corners. When McDavid takes the puck through the slot, yes, he’s trying to create magic, but he’s also losing possession. The Oilers’ defence had been great in the first three rounds, but you don’t want to expose it against the Panthers. To do that, you need to keep the puck. That’s something the Oilers haven’t been doing well enough.
McDavid’s ability to enter the zone and drive defences back is something Edmonton relies on heavily. However, he needs to be more strategic in his approach. Instead of turning the puck over, even throw it back to the point once the entry is completed. Allowing four or more Panthers to pressure a puck carrier, even when that puck carrier is McDavid, will end badly for the Oilers. The key to turning this series around is possession, especially for McDavid.
A Slice of Luck
McDavid has one goal this Stanley Cup Final series. However, he’s been criminally unlucky. He’s hit posts and driven play, but with just seven goals this postseason, his performance has been underwhelming. Edmonton cannot win this series unless McDavid leads them. The Oilers’ depth has been better than anyone expected, and Leon Draisaitl is trying. However, without the last change, the Oilers need Connor to be his deadly self.
This postseason, McDavid has a 5v5 goals for per 60 (GF/60) of 3.38. His expected goals for per 60 at 5v5 (xGF/60) is 3.64. He’s underperforming what the analytics suggest he should be, at least according to these models. That cannot be the case if the Oilers want to win their franchise’s first Stanley Cup since 1990. They need McDavid to defy all analytical expectations and be the dominant force he is. They need him burying the puck and reverting to that demon that won the Conn Smythe in a losing effort last season.
It Won’t Last Forever
As the playoff run winds down, remember that Connor McDavid is an intelligent man. He knows he will not get an unlimited number of shots at the Stanley Cup. To come so close last year was heartbreaking, but to come up short again would be devastating. No team has lost back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals since the Edmonton Oilers were a WHA franchise. The Boston Bruins did it in 1976-77 and 1977-78. They’re the last team to do it. When the Oilers got back to fight the New York Islanders in 1984, the Oilers won. When the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings fought again in 2009, the Penguins emerged victorious. Will it happen for McDavid and the Oilers this year?
As for the team, this is the penultimate year of McDavid’s $12.5 million x 8 deal. He’s got next year, and then he will get a rather large and deserving payday. With the cap jumping and Draisaitl’s extension kicking, Evan Bouchard needing an extension, and the number of free agents the Oilers have, this might be their last shot for a couple of years. If McDavid doesn’t show up now, when the Oilers need him most, he’ll spend the rest of his life wondering what might have been. Edmonton needs its captain now more than ever. Connor McDavid has to show us all why he is the best player in the world.
Main Photo: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images
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