What a win last night, and what a play by Simon Nemec! I don’t want to rain on that amazing play and great feeling from the win, but it is clear that the Devils are having trouble quickly adjusting to the Canes’ adjustments, and that could be a problem moving forward.
It feels good seeing the New Jersey Devils win a playoff game, especially at home! They were able to handle Carolina in game 3 and make this a series. I mean, what a play by Simon Nemec! Do you think he wants to make up for what was seen as a poor season for him so far, or what? Now it really starts to get interesting coming up in game 4.
Even with the win, however, there are some things that this team is going to need to deal with. As I alluded to in the title, the main thing I want to discuss is adjusting. It seems like in this series, Carolina has been adjusting to what NJ has been doing, but the Devils are struggling to respond to these adjustments and tweak their game as well to stay in front of the Canes. It all worked out well last night, thanks to some great saves by Markstrom, some quality chances on offense combined with a dominant first period, and a great overtime performance. But if the Devils cannot find ways to quickly adjust to Carolina’s adjustments, things could get dicey.
In game 1, the Devils really never got anything going. They managed to gain their footing for a short time in the third period, but it was too little, too late, and score effects were certainly involved in that game. But for all intents and purposes, Carolina played a full 60 minute game against the Devils. The Devils never managed any quality adjustments, and Carolina just smothered them. That is a problem on its own, but since that was two games ago, I don’t want to harp on it too much. Just to note that in game 1, the Devils never managed to adjust effectively at all outside of a few minutes in the third period, where they looked like they at least remembered they were supposed to be playing a hockey game.
In game 2, just like last night, the Devils came out hot and played quite well to start the game. They crushed the first period, with a 59.38 CF%, a 60.42 xGF%, and of course a 1-0 lead. They had good chances and opportunities, and while Frederik Andersen was strong, they still managed to end the period with a lead. After that period, however, things fell apart. They had an atrocious second period, reminiscent of game 1. Carolina adjusted really well during the first intermission, and the Devils could not keep up. They were dominated during that second period, with a 41.86 CF% and a 37.58 xGF%, really the polar opposite of the first period. And while they could only manage one goal in the first, they gave up 2 in the second, both in a relatively short time when Carolina was buzzing, and that was the game. Carolina went into shutdown mode and prevented the Devils’ offense from getting going the rest of the way. NJ had a measly 9 Corsi attempts in the entire third period despite being down one goal in what was arguably a must-win situation. That is entirely unacceptable. Carolina adjusted really well to what NJ did in the first period, and the Devils could not deal with those Carolina adjustments, which doomed them the rest of the way.
Last night, in game 3, it was more of the same. The first period last night was arguably even better than on Tuesday. They started with the first five shots on net, and even after playing on the penalty kill after a somewhat arguable tripping call, they took a 1-0 lead with an 8-3 shot lead, a 13-9 Corsi advantage, and a 0.65-0.18 xGF advantage at 5 on 5 late in the first. They were getting the better chances, the more dangerous chances, and Nico cashed in with a beautiful move to beat Andersen. It was exactly the period the team needed to make a statement in game 3 at home. Carolina made those numbers look a little better for them by the end of the period, as the Devils did not have a shot on goal after taking the lead, but it was still a great period.
Then, however, the second period started, and it was a completely different hockey game. Carolina started with the first five shots on net in the first few minutes, and then got a power play. The Devils did kill that well, but Carolina went right back on the attack once the power play ended. Despite the great first period, Carolina still had more shots on net after 40 minutes than the Devils did. And the numbers show just how crazy the second period was and just how well Carolina adjusted to what NJ did early in the game. Carolina had 32 Corsi attempts in the second period at 5 on 5, while the Devils had 9. 32 to 9! That is a 21.95 CF% for the Devils, and that pairs with 7 high danger chances for the Canes versus only 2 for the Devils. That boiled down to a 29.62 xGF% for the Devils in that period. The numbers bear out just how well Carolina adjusted during the first intermission, and just how poorly the Devils responded to this adjustment. Without some dynamite saves by Markstrom to keep Carolina off the board, it would have been a disaster.
It’s good that Markstrom was as good as he was in the second, because the third period started with that amazing play by Jesper Bratt just skating right around the defense and getting an amazing chance on net which led to the goal that Andersen basically knocked into his own net but was attributed to Dawson Mercer after he got it back in the crease. And that was vital, as the two power play goals by the Canes later on were brutal, but at least they never had to play from behind and were able to find that all-important game-winning goal in overtime. And not playing from behind probably made all the difference in the world, as you saw watching the third period in game 2. In the third period last night, they actually had better stats at 5 on 5, ending with a CF% of 60% and a stellar 85.03 xGF%. They did very, very well at 5 on 5 in the third, more than good enough to win with a two-goal lead. They just couldn’t kill a penalty. They might have adjusted at 5 on 5, and that was a good sign, but it doesn’t matter when you don’t handle special teams, and they did not.
That good 5 on 5 play continued on in overtime, too, where they looked once again like they did in the first period. It was a real struggle in the second and some of the third, but overtime was tremendous. They had basically the exact same expected goals percentage in the first overtime period as they did in the third period, sitting at 85.02%. It shows that the Devils can, when they want to, properly adjust to the Canes on the fly and play well. It is doable, and they did manage it in the extra periods. They are just going to need to do it much more if they want to win this series. They cannot continue to play periods like they did in the second last night and expect to win games. It won’t happen enough to get out of a series like this.
So while it was a win, it was not a full 60 minute game from Jersey (you know what I mean, even though the game took way longer than that). It was an amazing 20 minutes to start the game, a great start to the third but an atrocious penalty kill, followed by a dominant overtime performance. But the adjustments Carolina made in the first intermission were really not handled well at all for a large portion of the game. The second period was an abject disaster, and it took some luck and amazing goaltending for the Devils to maintain their 1-0 lead throughout the period. They needed their absolute best effort in overtime to get out of there with a win. If the Devils want to win more games, tie up this series, and potentially win it, they will need to better handle Carolina’s adjustments mid-game. They definitely can do it, as they did in overtime. Let’s see if they can manage that in game 4!