With the Devils on the brink of elimination, some may be tempted to promote a complete overhaul of the team. But are any players at the top underperforming? Or are the weak links elsewhere?
All statistics in this article are from Natural Stat Trick and NHL EDGE.
The New Jersey Devils are just a loss away from elimination. They have tried to fight through injury after injury, but despite some close scores in the series, the team has yet to even get the most out of the players who are still healthy enough to play. It is not like the Carolina Hurricanes have made the most out of their opportunities, as Jacob Markstrom has been solid in net for the Devils. However, the team has been so uncreative that the decisions to keep lines the way they are have become baffling.
Let’s dive into the numbers. Who is carrying their weight, and who isn’t? Out of players with 20 minutes or more at five-on-five:
- Players with a CF% over 50 (7): Johnny Kovacevic (team-leading 58.06), Ondrej Palat, Erik Haula, Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer, Jesper Bratt
- Players with a CF% between 40 and 50 (5): Simon Nemec, Jonas Siegenthaler, Dougie Hamilton, Brian Dumoulin, Brett Pesce
- Players with a CF% under 40 (6): Stefan Noesen, Cody Glass, Nathan Bastian, Tomas Tatar, Paul Cotter, Justin Dowling (team-worst 32.29).
Things don’t get much better if you look at expected goals.
- Players with an xGF% over 60 (7): Timo Meier (team-leading 69.8), Erik Haula, Nico Hischier, Johnny Kovacevic, Jesper Bratt, Dawson Mercer
- Players with an xGF% between 50 and 60 (4): Jonas Siegenthaler, Brian Dumoulin, Brett Pesce, Simon Nemec
- Players with an xGF% between 40 and 50 (1): Dougie Hamilton
- Players with an xGF% between 30 and 40 (3): Tomas Tatar, Nathan Bastian, Stefan Noesen
- Players with an xGF% under 30 (3): Cody Glass, Paul Cotter, Justin Dowling (team-worst 26.44)
Beyond the underlying numbers, if the Devils want to outscore the Hurricanes at five-on-five, these are the players they should be leaning on: Ondrej Palat (4-1), Nico Hischier (4-2), Timo Meier (3-1), Brett Pesce (3-1) and Simon Nemec (2-0). Only one other player — Nate Bastian (1-0) — has been on the ice for the Devils outscoring Carolina. Would I particularly blame Jesper Bratt or Dawson Mercer for being down 2-3, or Haula for being at 2-2? I think they have played pretty well, but they have significantly underperformed the amount of scoring chances they’ve generated. Brian Dumoulin, also at 2-2 in goals, has played very well and would probably look a lot better in that goal differential had the bottom six been carrying their weight. But the worst part of looking at this is seeing Kovacevic at the top of it all. Without knowing what is wrong with him, and without expecting him back, the Devils need to win more of their battles up front instead of relying on their defense.
If you were going to tell me in late February that the Devils would get great play from Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Ondrej Palat on the first line in the playoffs — and that Erik Haula would be great on the second line — I would say, awesome, that must have really freed up guys to light it up on the third line! Well, Paul Cotter and Stefan Noesen have seen two goals against, and Cody Glass just one goal against, with nothing to show for, offensively. Cotter, for all of his belief that his game was made for playoff hockey, has struggled to do anything other than skate circles around the zone and turn it over instead of passing. Glass, though he returned from a hard Markstrom slash to the midsection, has been a shadow of his regular season self. To me, Noesen looks fine on the power play, but his decisions with those linemates have been poor, and he has not been able to get much offensive zone puck possession. That, though, may directly be Paul Cotter’s fault.
The fourth line might deserve some praise for not yet giving up a goal, but there’s only so long I think the team can keep sending out a line centered by Justin Dowling. Per NHL EDGE, Dowling showed decent speed in the regular season, with 81 recorded speed bursts over 20 MPH — about five above league average at forward — and a top speed of 21.81 MPH, just below the league average of 22.18 MPH. The Devils also had the puck in the offensive zone nearly 42% of the time with Dowling on the ice, which ranked in the 66th percentile among forwards. In the playoffs, Dowling has been completely different. He has only had two speed bursts above 20 MPH, well below the forward average of 6.5, while Dowling has continued to not cover a lot of ice in total, seeing his offensive zone time drop to 34.8% through four games.
Compare that to his right wing, Nate Bastian, who was one of the slowest players in the league during the regular season. Bastian has been one of the fastest recorded skaters in the playoffs, looking more like the Bastian of two or three years ago with a 96th percentile top speed of 22.82 MPH and eight instances over 20 MPH to put him in the 67th percentile in speed bursts. It doesn’t stop there. According to Natural Stat Trick, in the 6:21 Bastian has played without Dowling and Tatar, the Devils have out-attempted Carolina 7-2, outshot them 6-0, and outscored them 1-0 (Nemec) with an xGF% of 71.36. This also includes a single shift that Bastian and Daniel Sprong played without Dowling or Cotter (with Erik Haula at center) in Game One, where the Devils had two shots on goal on two scoring chances for 0.12 expected goals.
So, if you’re thinking, there’s no way to rearrange the deck chairs to stop this ship from sinking, I would disagree. The Devils simply haven’t been willing to make offensively-focused lineup adjustments.
The Devils have the following players in the press box: Daniel Sprong, Curtis Lazar, Nolan Foote, Kurtis MacDermid, Brian Halonen, Mike Hardman, Nathan Legare, Marc McLaughin, Seamus Casey, Colton White, and Topias Vilen.
Vilen, a young left-handed defenseman, had 24 points and a +2 rating in 58 games for the Utica Comets. White, who has played with the Devils before, had 21 points and a +1 rating in 61 games. Mike Hardman and Brian Halonen led the Comets, offensively, with 35 and 40 points, respectively, along with +11 and +9 ratings. Hardman, who is a physical winger, played pretty well on the top line with Erik Haula and Dawson Mercer in the final game of the regular season. For some reason, Halonen has been iced out of call-ups and the like for the majority of the season. We all know what Seamus Casey can do with his shot, too. Can all of them really be worse than some of the players currently in the lineup?
And while he’s not a Black Ace this year, Cam Squires had four points and a +4 rating in three appearances with the Comets this season after finishing his QMJHL schedule. As he is on his ELC, he is eligible for NHL postseason play.
I wrote in the recap last night that I think guys like Curtis Lazar, Daniel Sprong, Nolan Foote, and Seamus Casey should be in the Game Five lineup. Perhaps even more radically, I think the Devils would benefit from dressing Brian Halonen or Mike Hardman (despite their spending most of the season in Utica), while calling up Cam Squires might even give them a better chance than rolling out Paul Cotter in third line minutes. It’s hard to get worse than a 0-2 goal deficit and 28.84 xGF%.
Additionally, in the regular season, the Glass-Sprong duo outscored opponents 4-2, including a 2-0 advantage when playing with Erik Haula. While Haula has been solid on the second line, I believe it may be time for him to take back his role at third-line center, moving Glass down to the fourth. Leaning into combinations that worked in the regular season, and rewarding players like Bastian who have dialed up the effort in the postseason, I think the least inoffensive lineup I can come up with is this:
Palat-Hischier-Meier
Bratt-Mercer-Noesen
Sprong-Haula-Bastian
Hardman-Glass-Halonen
Under this construction, each line would continue to have at least one big, physical forward and a scoring threat. In any case, I think the most essential piece is getting Paul Cotter out of the lineup. Cotter is fast and skilled, but he has no idea how to use those skills in this setting. In the regular season, Cotter saw the team outscored 43-27 at even strength, including a 12-9 negative differential when playing across from Stefan Noesen (who had a positive goal differential without Cotter). And as long as this team isn’t scoring on the power play, they must remove their least-effective even strength players from the equation.
To win Game Five, a working third line is essential. Sheldon Keefe might not have the world to work with right now, but he owes it to the guys currently in the top six to do his best to get the rest of the team working.