In terms of record, the Devils have been solid recently, but not amazing. But in terms of 5 on 5 numbers, especially expected goals, they have been fantastic.
Since the start of Thanksgiving week, starting Monday, November 25th, the New Jersey Devils have played in 9 games, and the game starting in a couple of hours will be game #10. In terms of record, they have been decent since then but could have been better, with a record of 5-3-1. Given their overall performance for the season, that is good enough to keep them in the hunt at the top of the Metropolitan Division. However, I think as Devils fans, we would’ve liked to see a little bit better, as a couple of those losses were tough, especially the overtime loss to Toronto where NJ dominated the run of play but got goalied.
But while the record over that stretch has been good but not amazing, their expected goals numbers tell a different story. Analytically, the Devils have been playing some lights-out hockey recently, putting up some strong numbers. Check out their expected goals per game in each of these games, thanks to Natural Stat Trick:
Before getting into it, it’s worth noting that again, these numbers are at 5 on 5 only. Special teams does play a part in these games, sometimes a huge part, so this isn’t the entire picture of 60 minutes of hockey. Nonetheless, 5 on 5 play is what happens most frequently and takes up the majority of any hockey game, so dominating the run of play in this setting is a surefire way to have a good record, barring poor special teams, poor goaltending, or both.
These numbers show that in 8 of the previous 9 games, the Devils have mostly dominated in expected goal percentage. Only in the Washington game did New Jersey struggle at 5v5 and lose the xG numbers. In every other game, they crushed it, some exceedingly so. It is truly incredible that in three of the games, their xGA was under 1. This means that their 5 on 5 defense was so good that they were expected to give up less than 1 goal in each of those games. Meanwhile, they were never under 1 in xGF in any of those games, and in fact, they were only under 2 expected goals for per game only once, again in that Washington game. In every other game, they were expected to score at least 2 goals at 5 on 5, some games more than that. But in only 2 games were they expected to give up at least 2 goals at 5 on 5. These really are remarkable numbers.
Just looking at that chart, the most frustrating game is undoubtedly the St. Louis game, where the Devils had an insane 80.66 expected goals for percentage, yet lost the game 3-0. They were expected to score almost 3 goals at 5v5 and give up 0.67 but got crushed on the scoreboard. That is a tough pill to swallow, perhaps more so than the Toronto game where they at least got a point out of it. But the thing is, if they keep performing like this at 5 on 5, and keep dominating their opponents at 5 on 5 and generating these ridiculous xGF% numbers, they will win way more games than they lose. Some games like the St. Louis game will happen, it’s inevitable. But if the Devils keep playing like this at 5 on 5, they will end the season as a top 2 team in the Metro with strong playoff hopes. Here’s to hoping that they can keep up this strong 5 on 5 play moving forward.