The 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs begin tomorrow. Unfortunately, the New Jersey Devils will not be involved. They failed their season. But 16 teams did not as they will enter one of the most exciting playoffs in all of sports. This post goes over all 8 playoff matchups and who are the pending UFAs within each one.
Sigh. I really did not want to have to write a post like this. I enjoyed focusing on the New Jersey Devils playing in the playoffs. While it ended with a Brind’Amour-coached forecheck-forced thud, the Devils coming back to knock off Our Hated Rivals in seven games was a massive achievement. Unfortunately, I cannot crow about that. Our Hated Rivals have home-ice advantage throughout the entire playoffs through winning the President’s Trophy and the Devils crashed out of the playoff picture as of April 9, 2024.
Still, the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs is absolutely worth your time watching. Intensity, drama, skills, and desire are all cranked up to a 19 on a scale of 1 to 10. Many of the eight playoff series to start this year’s postseason are returning matchups and old rivalries looking to be re-kindled. I wish the Devils were there instead. I am at a point in my life where I would rather see my favorite team get in and get knocked out soon than miss it entirely, coping for a better tomorrow that is never promised or guaranteed. That Florida went from being on the brink of qualifying and even winning the first round and then going to the Cup Finals strengthens this thought of mine. But that’s me. You may be different. Either way, let us go over what will dominate the NHL landscape from April 20 through early June. (Note: Numbers are from Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com where linked; some were pulled a couple of days ago so I apologize if a couple are off. Free agent information came from CapFriendly.)
The Series with an Easy Choice: Our Hated Rivals (Metropolitan #1) – Washington Capitals (Wild Card #2)
The Season Series: Even at 2-2-0, last played on January 14 (OHR win, 2-1)
About Our Hated Rivals: Unfortunately, I have to write good things about the team I despise. They did finish with the league’s best record. They did not have protracted losing streaks. They kept getting results. They were pretty mid in 5-on-5 play with above average goaltending (team 5-on-5 save percentage of 91.44% was 13th in the NHL) and decent shooting. Special teams were exceptional. The Rangers finished with a 26.4% success rate on power plays (65 for 246, 3rd/4th depending on Edmonton) and a 84.5% success rate on penalty kills (36 PPGA on 232 situations). Given how refereeing in the playoffs may not lead to as many special teams situations, this could be an issue if they go cold or they struggle in 5-on-5 to generate what they need. Of course, if they succeed at what they get penalty-wise, then it may be moot. Our Hated Rivals surely have a chip on their shoulder after being eliminated by Akira Schmid and the Devils last year. They have plenty of names whose time is starting to run out on contending such as Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Vincent Trochek, and Mika Zibanejad all at least 30 years or older. Still, they will be seen as the favorites over a squad that not only got into the postseason in their final game of the season, but did not even outscore their competition.
About Washington: Washington got in by beating Philadelphia, who in turn knocked out Detroit and Pittsburgh through how they lost. No matter to the Caps. They emerged in a scramble for that last playoff spot and took it. It is a surprise given some clear issues in how they play. For example, they have been regularly out-shot, out-attempted, and out-scored in 5-on-5 play. Despite the continued hype of The Putinist chasing Wayne Gretzky’s goal record, the Caps have just struggled to score goals with a mere 2.12 GF/60 in 5-on-5 play. Despite the emergence of 30-year old Charlie Lindgren, the team’s 91.07% save percentage in 5-on-5 play is below league median and multiple non-playoff teams. The Capitals are also a bit below the league median in penalty kill success (79%, 18th, 49 PPGA on 233 situations). Likewise on the power play despite a literal set play that teams have yet to stop for two decades; the Caps finished 17th with a 20.6% success rate (47 for 228). The Capitals may very well be better than the sum of their parts, but there is reason to think they are the weakest of the 16 teams playing in the second season. Nashville, they are not.
Any Pending Free Agents to Watch for Either Side that May Interest NJ?: From the Capitals side, not really. Their only UFA of note is Nicolas Aube-Kubel and I do not think he moves the needle much for the bottom-six. With Rasmus Sandin’s, Aliaksei Protas’, and Tom Wilson’s extensions kicking in after 2024, they may want to make some space. I doubt the Caps will want to do that within the division though.
From the side of Our Hated Rivals, it is a little more interesting if you think well of either Alexander Wennberg or Jack Roslovic. They may be better adds for the center position that the Devils could use strengthening in their depth. Although they may cost more than what you would want to pay a depth player since each made at least $2 million in 2023-24.
What Would the Devils Fans Likely Want?: Come on. I have next to no respect for Alexander Ovechkin, but this is simple. We should all want the Rangers to lose; ideally as quickly as possible.
A Metropolitan Rematch: Carolina Hurricanes (Metropolitan #2) – New York Islanders (Metropolitan #3)
The Season Series: Even at 2-2-0, last played on March 19 (Hurricanes won 4-1)
About Carolina: Carolina is well structured, well coached, and excellent in front of their goaltenders – which has improved quite a bit as the season went on and Frederik Andersen returned. The Hurricanes have been one of the league’s best teams in 5-on-5 play. Generating an xGF of 2.94 per 60 minutes is fantastic; although undercut by the actual 2.56 GF/60 they had in 5-on-5 play this season. Whoever plays Carolina is going to have to endure a lot and hope their goaltender is ready for perform. Be also concerned if whoever plays Carolina gives them power plays. The Canes finished with league’s second best conversion rate on power plays at 26.9% with 67 goals out of 249 situations. Make them take calls? Do not expect a lot of opportunity to attack as the Hurricanes finished 2023-24 with the league’s best success rate on penalty kills at 86.4% with 35 PPGAs out of 258 situations. Provided the Hurricanes do not get goalied (which happened to them in last year’s ECFs) or suffer some awful bounce or two, the Canes are set to be contenders once more. After all, they nearly sniped first place from the Rangers – who won the President’s Trophy of all things.
About the Islanders: I have to respect the Islanders. Sure, their long term future is ugly with the contracts on the books. Yes, their prospect pool is shallow. Yet, the Islanders keep getting into the postseason. Since Lou became their GM, the Islanders made the playoffs in five out of their last six seasons and made it beyond the first round in four of them. Last year’s series with the Hurricanes was their first first round exit since 2015, in fact. Revenge may be on their mind. The Islanders, on paper, are out-matched. Their 5-on-5 play was similar to Washington’s in some respects. Although the Isles did out-score their opposition in 5-on-5 thanks in part to a top-tier tandem of Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov; the two combined for the league’s fourth best save percentage in 5-on-5 play (92.45%). The Islanders’ penalty kill finished as the least successful in the NHL at 72.2% as the squad bled 61 power play goals out of just 219 situations. The power play finished at a more respectable 19th place in terms of success rate at 19.7% (45 for 228) but hardly a strength to boast.
The Islanders do have three things in their favor, though. One: Sorokin-Varlamov is an excellent goalie tandem and a hot goalie can make up for a lot of flaws in the postseason. Two: The Islanders are coming in hot with their last regulation loss coming on March 30 – or 9 games before their end of their season. And shortly after their last loss to Carolina, they did take down Florida and Winnipeg prior to this streak. Three: The Islanders, from owner to fan, appreciate that being in the postseason is an achievement. The pressure is on the Canes to succeed and go deep, if not win it all. The Isles, well, they don’t have that and that could mean something if the series is close and long.
Any Pending Free Agents to Watch for Either Side that May Interest NJ?: From the Islanders side, I imagine the People Who Matter who want toughness over things that win games will hope the Devils sign a 34-year old Matt Martin or a 36-year old Cal Clutterbuck. I doubt the Isles will let their Identity Line walk though. We shall see.
Carolina has some very interesting names hitting the market. I think Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce will be too costly for the Devils. Jalen Chatfield coming off a minimum salary contract is worth inquiring about, in my opinion. Those who want to upgrade the middle or bottom six forwards will definitely want to see how Jordan Martinook, Stefan Noesen, and Teuvo Teravainen perform. They are pending UFAs and Martinook and/or Noesen may be quite affordable. Jake Guentzel is also a pending UFA but he is likely going to get tons of money thrown at him so I am not holding my breath. Still, if you want to watch future free agents, then Carolina is a great choice.
What Would the Devils Fans Likely Want?: As much as I would like to see an Islanders series win just to see how Carolina would react, I think the Hurricanes are the smarter choice to move on. Not only do I think they are a better team, they would be more likely to take down Our Hated Rivals should they beat the Caps than the Isles. And I think the Devils organization should get a reminder that how Carolina does business is a better model than whatever they were following this season. A playoff series win helps that perception.
Battle of Florida: Florida Panthers (Atlantic #1) – Tampa Bay Lightning (Wild Card #2)
The Season Series: Won by Florida, 2-1-0 (last played March 16, Tampa Bay won 5-3)
About Florida: After riding a super hot Sergey Bobrovsky to the Stanley Cup Finals, the Panthers set about not needing help to make the playoffs in 2023-24. Instead, they took the whole division. Great in 5-on-5 play? Check, featuring a 54.31% xGF%. Strong on special teams? With a 82.5% success rate on the PK (6th best, 51 PPGA out of 291 situations) and a 23.5% success rate on the PP (8th best, 63 PPG out of 268), that is another check. Do they have goaltenders? Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz have been great; check it up. Producers? Sam Reinhart emerged with a 57-goal season as Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe stood on a lot of successful business. Another check down. Could they have used more scoring depth? Yes, but the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko helps with that (14 points in 19 Florida games). The Panthers were a surprise last year. This year, they are legitimate contenders for the Cup. If they get out of the first round.
About Tampa Bay: The Lightning hit some struggles along the way this season. Andrei Vasilevskiy came back during the season and did not have a performance he is used to having with a mere 90% save percentage in all situations. The other goalies struggled and the Lightning, somehow, finished with a worse 5-on-5 team save percentage than New Jersey at 89.97%. While I have all of the time in the world for Jon Cooper to coach a team, the Lightning were not all that hot in 5-on-5 play this season. Special teams were amazing though. The PK was quite successful at 83.1%, the fifth best rate in the NHL with just 39 PPGAs out of 231 chances. The Lightning finished with the league’s most successful power play at 28.7% going 70 for 244. But like Our Hated Rivals, that may not be so valuable if and when the refs put their whistles away in playoff games. The team does miss Mikhail Sergachev and some of their depth signings and call ups from Syracuse have not carried as much as past teams have. That all said, there is still plenty of energy in these Bolts. Anthony Duclair has been an excellent deadline pick up. The Lightning still got 20+ goal seasons from Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Nick Paul. Victor Hedman remains a stalwart from the blueline. Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point were great. And Nikita Kucherov could very well win the Hart Trophy with over 140 points and becoming the fifth NHL player ever to put up 100 assists in a season. The Lightning may not be as strong as they once were but they are not going away quietly.
Any Pending Free Agents to Watch for Either Side that May Interest NJ?: Steven Stamkos will be the biggest free agent of this summer if he makes it to July 1 without a new deal. Can the Devils afford Stamkos? It would be tough. Should it at least be thought about? For a player of his caliber, absolutely. The more affordable and interesting forward to me would Anthony Duclair. I always liked his game and I think he would fit well on a Devils team that should still be pretty fast in 2024-25. I’m not really moved much by Tyler Motte, Austin Watson, Haydn Fleury, or Calvin De Haan, but they are there. (Matt Dumba is likely going to cost too much anyway.)
Florida, my goodness, you have loads of UFAs for 2024. Bill Zito, you are going to be a very busy man in June. The UFA list is as follows: Reinhart, Kyle Okposo, Tarasenko, Nick Cousins, Steven Lorentz, Kevin Stenlund, Ryan Lomberg, Brandon Montour, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Dmitry Kulikov, and Anthony Stolarz. Some of these players should be returning with fat raises like Reinhart and Montour. But the lesser / older names may be cost-effective options for a Devils team looking to deepen their squad. Forget Carolina, this team has loads of free agents to look for.
What Would the Devils Fans Likely Want?: I love these types of series because I can just appreciate it for what it is. I do not think a playoff series loss for either side will lead to sweeping changes that the Devils can swoop in and take advantage of. If you’re still a bit salty about the Lightning dispatching the Devils in 2018, then cheer on Florida. I think the Panthers are the better team. But a rivalry can throw things for a loop real fast.
Original Six Rivalry: Boston Bruins (Atlantic #2) – Toronto Maple Leafs (Atlantic #3)
The Season Series: Won by Boston, 4-0-0 (last played March 7, Boston won 4-1)
About Boston: Like many, I thought the departure of Patrice Bergeron would begin a decline in the Bruins. Surely, Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman would not be that good again? The 92.97% 5-on-5 save percentage, 3rd best in the NHL says they were. Who is going to produce at center without Bergeron? Oh, a combination of Charlie Coyle (60 points), Pavel Zacha (59 points, corner apparently turned), and Morgan Geekie (39 points) will fill in? Well, then. But Ratfaced Thug Brad Marchand will surely age into a decline, right? He put up 29 goals and 67 points as a 35-year old, matching his points from last season. OK. Can any Bruin just be a superstar? David Pastrnak put up 47 goals and 110 points; a Hart-worthy campaign in most seasons. Yeah, but how was the team play as a whole? Really good at 5-on-5? A ha! They were pretty mid at 5-on-5 there – except Ullmark-Swayman helped the B’s find success with it. The team shooting at 9.7% certainly helped too. The power play was good but not great and still supportive: a 22.2% power play success rate (54 for 243). The PK was much better at 82.5% (47 PPGA out of 268 situations), but that alone will not elevate a team. Yet, they answered a lot of the questions thrown at them with: Yeah, but we’re still going to be successful and they are. Knowing that they swept the season series against their first round opponent, whose fanbase has had a lot of anxiety the second this matchup was secured, is another edge that they can use to step into the second round.
About Toronto: You think Our Hated Rivals and their fans are annoying? Imagine if their local media made them a focal point and tried to sell an entire nation on how great they are. Toronto is over-exposed and over-dramatic even when they have legitimately good to great things about them. The Maple Leafs were on the better end of 5-on-5 play this season. The team shot at a very high 9.74% in 5-on-5 too. The power play finished with a top-ten success rate at 24%, going 57 for 238. Auston Matthews secured his place as one of the best Maple Leafs ever with a very nice 69-goal, 107-point season. William Nylander put up 40 goals and 98 points, which should shut up his haters. Mitch Marner put up 85 points and John Tavares got 30 goals and 66 points. The Core Four provided. Yet, the Leafs have weaknesses that only add to the concerns about a playoff matchup against the Bruins. The defense could be better. Their PK success rate was below league median at 76.9% (55 PPGA out of 238) and a 5-on-5 xGA/60 rate of 2.6 is right in the league median. The Leafs tried to add veteran defensemen at the deadline but they have not worked out so well. The production after the Core Four and Morgan Rielly falls off a cliff. It is nice Tyler Bertuzzi put up 21 goals but it is a lot of dudes chipping in here and there instead of some other reliable hands. Not that many have stopped Matthews or Nylander but if they go quiet, then the offense could be in trouble. The biggest concern: Goaltending. The Maple Leafs finished the season with 5-on-5 team save percentage of 90.92%, the 23rd best percentage in the league and the second worst among playoff teams. The recent form has not been good either with New Jersey (!!), Detroit, Florida, and Tampa Bay each putting up at least five goals on the Maple Leafs in Toronto’s final four games of the season. Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll have to be better. Either way, expect a myriad of the hockey media going on about how Toronto needs goaltending and how they have to split up the Core Four to do it and whether Brad Treliving can fix this and wether Sheldon Keefe is the right coach and how come the NHL’s playoff system is like this where Toronto has to play someone like Boston instead of the old 1 vs. 8 seed system where Toronto would be playing…Boston.
Yeah.
Any Pending Free Agents to Watch for Either Side that May Interest NJ?: Toronto is going to have some tough decisions to make. Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones are pending UFAs, although I would caution anyone thinking either will help their team’s goaltending to look at their performances. TJ Brodie is the big name available from their blueline with veterans Mark Giordano, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Joel Edmundson as cheaper options. I would want none of them for New Jersey. Those wanting jerks that can actually play will be highly interested in Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi. Both are pending UFAs. They will not come cheap given their current contracts. But with Matthews’ and Nylander’s extension, I doubt Toronto can keep both. Watch for them. And cringe if/when Domi does something stupid.
I think there are some of the People Who Matter who hope Tom Fitzgerald tries to swing a trade for Swayman or Ullmark. Swayman is a pending RFA but did not get extended while Ullmark is 30 and has one season left on his contract. It is a prime situation and I would prefer it than swinging for Markstrom again. In terms of pending UFAs, Boston has some veteran options I am likely going to look into later this year. Jake DeBrusk will command big money, I think. Taking a flyer on Matt Grzelcyk or Danton Heinen are not the worst ideas off the top of my head. I do not know how much they have left in the tank but Kevin Shattenkirk, James van Reimsdyk, and Pat Maroon are available too.
What Would the Devils Fans Likely Want?: I don’t know about you, but Toronto getting knocked out would be the best. Between Treliving in the seat, a challenging media, and another playoff series failure, Toronto could blow some things up that other teams like NJ could benefit. It would also be hilarious if Boston beat them again in the playoffs.
2023 Western Conference Finals Rematch: Dallas Stars (Central #1) – Las Vegas Golden Knights (Wild Card #2)
The Season Series: Won by Las Vegas, 3-0-0 (last played on December 9, Las Vegas won 6-1)
About Dallas: DeBoer is in charge of the Stars and they just won the Central Division with 52 wins and 113 points with 8 wins out of their last 10. The Stars have been a very good team at 5-on-5 with only Edmonton and Carolina having superior xGF% values. The goaltending at 5-on-5, largely led by Jake Oettinger, was just below league median at 91.17%. Not amazing, but the Stars out-scored this potential issue well both by the expected goals model at NST and by actual goals in the real world. What makes Dallas especially dangerous is that Wyatt Johnston led the team in goals with 32 and seven other players put up at least 20 goals. Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson (the point leader), the ageless wonder Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment, and Jamie Benn round out that group. That makes matchups hard for opponents; the production can and did come from all over the lineup. Also making matchups hard are the defensemen Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley putting up big minutes and points. Give the Stars a power play and they can punish it given their 6th most successful power play unit (24.2%, 58 for 240) in the NHL. Give the Stars a penalty to kill and they can handle it well given the eighth most successful penalty kill unit (82%, 43 PPGA out of 239) in the NHL. Say what you want about DeBoer but he had the Stars play excellent hockey from start to finish. If Jake Oettinger can be more good than bad, do not be shocked if the Stars go another run.
About Las Vegas: The Defending Champions were beset by injury in 2023-24. Yes, yes, make your “I’m so not surprised Mark Stone is ready for when the salary cap doesn’t matter.” Half of the NHL used LTIR to be cap compliant this season – including the Devils – so I care not about this complaint. Still, the Golden Knights’ injury list was long this season and it hurt their cause. Still, they qualified for the postseason. Their 5-on-5 play as a team was a mixed bag but more mid than not good. They got another good season from Adin Hill and Logan Thompson. The power play was a bit underwhelming with a 20.1% success rate, finishing 20th in the NHL by going 50 for 249. The PK was just behind Edmonton at a 79.7% success rate, so mark it as needs improvement but not bad. They got productive seasons out of Jonathan Marchessault (42 goals), Jack Eichel (30 goals), and William Karlsson (30 goals) – and all three finished below 70 points and only Marchessault played over 80 games. Stone, Chandler Stephenson, Nic Roy, Shea Theodore, and Alex Pietrangelo all did well – when they were able to play. How healthy will this Vegas team be for the playoffs? How healthy can they stay? And can they withstand a Dallas team that is quite strong outside of the crease for most of this season? It is never easy defending the Cup. The Golden Knights are about to find out how true that is in the playoffs. Sure, the G-Knights swept the season series. But that was also all in 2023. It is 2024 and things are different now.
Any Pending Free Agents to Watch for Either Side that May Interest NJ?: Scott Wedgewood may hit the market in July. Given the other pending UFA goalies, it may not be so laughable to consider a reunion. There are other Stars coming out of contract that should interest the Devils more. While he is pushing 40, I believe Pavelski is this generation’s Ray Whitney so I can be talked into seeing if he will come. I doubt it, but it’s there. Matt Duchene on a reasonable deal may not be so odious either. On defense, Chris Tanev will be up for a new deal. He is 34 so asking for too much would be a nonstarter from him. Alternatively, a slightly younger Jani Hakanpaa could be available too.
One of the things I admire about Las Vegas is how they are committed to the team more than emotional ties to players. Marchessault has been a stud for the G-Knights and a big reason why they found so much success since joining the NHL. Yet, I can see Kelly McCrimmon thinking it is not worth paying a ton of money to a 33-year old winger that may have had his last great scoring season. He could be available. Likewise for 36-year old Alec Martinez, Anthony Mantha, and Chandler Stephenson. Waiver claim Michael Amadio has done well. If the G-Knights do not keep him then I would at least think about his inclusion. That said, I would pay attention to everyone on Las Vegas. If management does not feel the player is providing value for their contract or needs to move someone to make an upgrade, then they will make a move. If Fitzgerald is shrewd, he’s calling about Hill and Thompson if/when Vegas is eliminated. If only to plant a seed ahead of the NHL Draft and Free Agency Frenzy.
What Would the Devils Fans Likely Want?: Dallas did embarrass the Devils real bad on Brylin Night. But I blame the Devils, especially Lindy Ruff, for that. I bear no ill will for DeBoer or the Stars, really. I think they are a well-managed organization with a strong roster that can hang with anyone. Unlike some in the hockey realm, I do not hate or despise or dislike the Golden Knights. I get how they do business and their ruthless approach has been yielded loads of mirth and a Cup. It is not the easiest to bet against a Las Vegas team with as much experience as they have (and going 3 for 3 over Dallas); but I do think the Stars are a better team. Playoff success by Dallas should signal to other teams (New Jersey) that their way of doing business is one to follow. Kind of like Carolina in that sense. Oh, and Wedgewood. Who is going to say no to success for Wedgewood? Not me.
The Jack Adams Series: Vancouver Canucks (Pacific #1) – Nashville Predators (Wild Card #1)
The Season Series: Won by Vancouver, 3-0-0 (last played on December 19, Vancouver won 5-2)
About Vancouver: Many felt Bruce Boudreau got a raw deal out of Vancouver. Rick Tocchet did the one thing to make that go away: a fantastic season. 50 wins. A positive goal differential. A division title. Did the Canucks have some fantastic fortune? You bet. A team shooting percentage of 10.65% in 5-on-5 play was both high on its own and relative to the NHL as it was nearly a percentage point higher than the second most successful shooting team in the NHL this season (Boston). That may not last into the postseason. The Canucks goaltenders, Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith (mostly Demko), posted a top-five team save percentage at 92.33%. Demko was legitimately good; it may be more likely that holds up going into the postseason. But do not discount the Canucks as a team fueled by PDO. They had some strong numbers in 5-on-5 play, winning both in xGF as well as actual GF. The Canucks were not power play merchants but did quite well for themselves with a 22.5% success rate (57 for 253). The penalty kill could have been better than the 78.8% success rate they put up; but it is not the worst among the playoff squads. The team had some substance. They also have talented players who had fantastic seasons such as potential Norris candidate Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller cracking the 100 point mark; Brock Boeser putting up 40 goals; Elias Pettersson on the cusp of 90 points; and a set of depth players contributing from Nils Hoglander to Dakota Joshua. Tocchet being behind the bench of a team that did so well from start to finish, if hot, makes him a prime candidate for the Jack Adams Trophy. His contender will be opposite of him in the playoffs.
About Nashville: With Barry Trotz taking over as GM and the Predators being the definition of good but not great for so long, many expected the Preds to fall back a bit and rebuild up for a potentially better tomorrow. Nope. The Preds won 47 games, earned 99 points, and clinched a playoff spot. What is more is that they did this despite Juuse Saros not carrying the team on his back. He was not horrid with a 90.6% save percentage in all situations, but you and I are used to seeing better percentages – not being 0.2% behind backup Kevin Lankinen. Did the Predators just flat out score everyone? While they out-scored their competition as a team in 5-on-5 play, a GF/60 of 2.58 suggests they were not scoring machines. The Predators had just four players with at least 20 goals: an utterly fantastic 48-goal campaign from Filip Forsberg; Ryan O’Reilly (26), Gustav Nyquist (23); and the stud defenseman, Roman Josi (23). The rest was score-by-committee with Tommy Novak leading that pack with 18 goals and 45 points. Not bad for Novak, but surprisingly not more given how much Nashville won. Was it special teams? Certainly not their 22nd most successful PK in the league at 76.9%. Their power play finished at the league median at 21.6%, going 58 for 269. The 5-on-5 play was good but not amazing. So what is it? A team that has been more successful than the sum of its parts that was motivated enough to not limp into the postseason. Give plenty of credit to their head coach: Andrew Brunette. I wonder if the Devils could use a coach like Brunette. Hmm.
Any Pending Free Agents to Watch for Either Side that May Interest NJ?: Nashville’s #2 goalie Kevin Lankinen is a pending UFA. If Fitzgerald cannot swing a deal for Saros (or dare I suggest Yaroslav Askarov?), then going after him may work. Although if he gets into playoff games, I wonder if Nashville will be all right anyway. The Preds have some players on sizeable contracts hitting the market in Jason Zucker, Anthony Beauvillier, Ty Barrie, and Alexandre Carrier. I do not know any of them are all that enticing off the top of my head.
Vancouver’s #2 goalie is also a pending UFA, Casey DeSmith. DeSmith is 32 and did not have all that great of a season. I would caution against him. If you want a defenseman, though, look to the Canucks as four of them are pending UFAs: Tyler Myers, Nikita Zadorov, Ian Cole, and Mark Friedman. Those clamoring for a big body presence may desire Zadorov. I don’t know; I think he may be way more pricey than you would want to pay him. In terms of forwards, the big name is Elias Lindholm but the cheaper options are more interesting. Teddy Blueger, Sam Lafferty, and Dakota Joshua may be worth considering for the bottom six depending on how their play style can fit whatever New Jersey wants to do in 2024-25.
What Would the Devils Fans Likely Want?: Vancouver has the edge on paper. But a Nashville win would really drive home the point increasingly made by the People Who Matter that Brunette should have been kept in NJ. If you support that point, then cheer on the Preds to upset the Canucks. If you would rather not see Brunette succeed away from NJ to remind you how Fitzgerald let him go, then hope the Canucks win instead.
A Cold Series: Winnipeg Jets (Central #2) – Colorado Avalanche (Central #3)
The Season Series: Won by Winnipeg, 3-0-0 (last played on April 13, Winnipeg won 7-0)
About Winnipeg: There’s a vocal section of the People Who Matter who have to be feeling really good about Connor Hellebuyck. Or disappointed that the Devils did not go after him. Hellebuyck wanted Vasilevskiy money, he mostly got it, and then put in one of the best seasons in the league. Combined with Laurent Brossoit, the Jets led the NHL in 5-on-5 team save percentage at 93.67%. Their other 5-on-5 stats were good. Not great, but good. Helped out big time by the great goaltending. There were some flaws to the Jets: special teams. Finishing with a 77.3% PK success rate is not encouraging, especially given the matchup. Converting just 19.1% of all power plays in the season is not that threatening either. Still, the Jets have plenty of causes for opponents to be concerned outside of Hellebuyck. Josh Morrissey remains a point and minute machine from the blueline. Mark Schiefele, Kyle Connor, and Nikolaj Ehlers are quite talented. They got 21 goals in an injury-shortened season from Gabe Vilardi on top of double-digit goal outputs from seven other players including 33 games of Sean Monahan. Adding Tyler Toffoli has helped boost the production too. Factors that can very much be helpful in the postseason. The goaltending may be needed to slow down their opponent, though.
About Colorado: Remember when they won it all in 2022? That was an effort led by Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakowsky, and others. Most of that core remains. MacKinnon is a Hart candidate with an astounding 51 goal, 138 point season. Rantanen put up 103 points. Makar remains a defensive demon with tons of offense with 89 points whilst Toews put up 49 while eating big minutes next to Makar. The secondary scoring has changed but they have been successful from Valeri Nichushkin to Ross Colton to Jonathan Drouin to Artturi Lehkonen. They beefed up the depth further with Casey Mittlestadt and Zach Parise. The result is a team that scored loads of goals in 5-on-5 (2.99 GF/60 over a 2.69 xGF/60) while controlling much of the play. A team with a relatively lethal power play with a 24.5% success rate; fifth best in the NHL for when they get those few chances. (And their PK is not too shabby with an 80.2% success rate.) The concern for Colorado is in the net, though. Alexandar Georgiev has not been that good this season with an 89.7% save percentage in all situations. Justus Annunen has a superior save percentage but with 13 appearances, it is questionable how consistent he’s been. Especially given how bad his last appearance against Winnipeg went in relief (3 goals on 11 shots). The 2022 Avs won it all with the goaltending being decent. If they can get decent goaltending and the other team – the Jets – do not goalie them to oblivion, the Avalanche can be a nightmare.
Any Pending Free Agents to Watch for Either Side that May Interest NJ?: Colorado’s depth will be freed up after this season. There is Drouin, who I would have to think Colorado will try to keep, there is Sean Walker, and there are a lot of other guys making less than $2 million down to the league minimum. Scratch Parise; he’s retiring after these playoffs. I guess if you really like Yakov Trenin, Joel Kiviranta, or Caleb Jones, then maybe? It is not an exciting group.
As for the Jets, the main one to follow is Laurent Brossoit. If Mr. Fitzgerald does not bag a big name, then he may want to try out Brossoit and hope he can be decent. It would not be what I would want but it is there. There are also two potential returns in Toffoli and Colin Miller. That tends to be pretty rare, so I am not holding my breath – even if I would take Miller over pending UFAs Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo. I doubt Monahan gives the Devils something they need.
What Would the Devils Fans Likely Want?: Are you still harboring a beef with Zach Parise? Parise has announced that he is retiring after the playoffs. So wanting Winnipeg to knock him outright away may interest you. If you also like Tyler Toffoli, then that is another reason to support the Jets. I think this will be one of the closest to call. Hellebuyck can stop the Avalanche’s high-powered offense – but will he? The Avalanche can bury teams in goals – but will they? We shall see. This should be one to watch for competitive value alone. Even though the Jets smacked down the Avs in the regular season.
A 2023 First Round Rematch: Edmonton Oilers (Pacific #2) – Los Angeles Kings (Wild Card #2)
The Season Series: Won by Edmonton, 3-1-0 (last played on March 28, Edmonton won 4-1)
About Edmonton: The Oilers crashed and burned through the beginning of the season. Jay Woodcroft was out, Kris Knoblauch was in, and the Oilers kept on winning. They went on an amazing pace to not only climb their way back into the playoff picture but have a shot at a super-hot Vancouver team in the Pacific. The crazy thing about the 2023-24 Oilers is not that it is just Connor McDavid feeding easy scores for Zach Hyman. No. McDavid has been feeding scores to many while putting them in himself; Hyman is one of the hardest working guys in the league; and the team is just great as a squad. Their 5-on-5 numbers are on par with Carolina. Carolina! The team’s 5-on-5 offense generated an xGF/60 of 3.2 – the only one in the NHL above 3 in 5-on-5 play – and they put up an actual GF/60 of 2.94. Edmonton controls play a lot better than they get credit for and just floods opponents with offense. The goaltending, once maligned, worked its way back up to finish ahead of Our Hated Rivals at 91.63% in 5-on-5 play. Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner salvaged their seasons. You may expect a high-scoring 5-on-5 team to crush it on man advantages and the Oilers did with a 26.4% success rate, going 63 for 239. The penalty kill could have been better than a 78.9% success rate (51 PPGA out of 252) but that was still 14th in the NHL. Not bad. The team has plenty of talent to carry the day. Connor McDavid is still one of the best in the world and he put up 100 assists in 132 points in just 75 games. Hyman put in 54 goals and made the few haters and losers suffer for it. Leon Draisaitl is still an efficient machine with 31 goals and 106 points. Evan Bouchard has been a point machine from the blueline with 81 points. The supporting cast from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane to Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod has been solid. The Oilers have playoff experience. They know the matchup. They have been driving through the league since December. Could this be the year? It could be. And based on their CapFriendly page, it may need to be for many.
About Los Angeles: The Kings broke ahead of the pack in the West to take the second wild card, falling short of taking the first one from Nashville. They had an, um, interesting season. They were very good in 5-on-5 but more known for how stingy they were. The team finished 10th in 5-on-5 team save percentage at 91.83% thanks to Cam Talbot and David Rittich having unexpectedly strong seasons. Adding to their defensive rep is owning the league’s second most successful penalty kill in the NHL at 84.9% (38 PPGA out of 252). The offense was not so bad. They did shoot at a relatively low 7.87% as a team, which hurt. They were supplemented by a power play was relatively OK with a success rate of 22.1% (54 out of 244). Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala were joined by Adrian Kempe in the 70+ point club this season; they got a 30-goal season out of Trevor Moore; Drew Doughty still showed he had gas in his very large tank (he averaged nearly 26 minutes per game!) and Quinton Byfield appears to be emerging as a bright young forward. But the depth was not so solid; Pierre-Luc Dubois has been a source of concern; and a lot of guys on the squad were just there. The team was weirdly bad at home, changed coaches, and while they got in, there is still an air of confusion on how good the Kings really are. The playoffs are a great way to answer such questions. The Kings fans may not like the answer though.
Any Pending Free Agents to Watch for Either Side that May Interest NJ?: Edmonton’s CapFriendly page looks a lot like Florida’s. Just a lot of guys marked as UFA for 2024-25. In the case of the Oilers, though, they are mostly vets and depth players on relatively cheap deals. Warren Foegele made the most out of all of them and that was at $3.25 million. Adam Henrique did have money deferred but he was a rental along with Sam Carrick. The other depth guys include Mattias Janmark, Connor Brown, Adam Erne, Sam Gagner, Corey Perry, Troy Stecher, and Vincent Desharnais. Not exactly a row of names. That all said: goaltender Calvin Pickard is a pending UFA. He may be in line for a raise. Those looking for a #1A or backup option may pay him well to do so. How he does in the postseason will help (or hurt) that effort.
Both Los Angeles Kings goalies are hitting the market this Summer. Talbot is 36 so whoever signs him will have to hope he meets the deal. Rittich is cheap, 31, but has the risk of having one of his best seasons so the next one may not be so amazing. But, hey, if you want goalies, the Kings have two who can be available real soon. Outside of that, there’s Matt Roy, Viktor Arvidsson, and a 37-year old Trevor Lewis. Not a lot of appealing names outside of the crease.
What Would the Devils Fans Likely Want?: I think Los Angeles’ defensive structure may slow down the Oilers a bit, but unless Talbot/Rittich turn into superheroes, I think Edmonton should prevail. If you like Adam Henrique and want him to go deep once more, then you would want Edmonton to win. And if you’re still ticked at the Kings for 2012. There’s that too.
Be Strong, Be Wrong in 2024: It’s Time for Predictions
Finally, after all of those words, some predictions. No game amounts, just winners.
Eastern Conference:
I want Washington to win but I cannot predict it. Alas.
First Round: Our Hated Rivals over Washington; Carolina over Islanders; Boston over Toronto; Florida over Tampa Bay
Divisional Finals: Carolina over Our Hated Rivals, Boston over Florida
Eastern Conference Finals: Carolina over Boston
Western Conference:
Given the lack of rooting interest, this side of the bracket should be just plain fun to enjoy.
First Round: Dallas over Las Vegas; Colorado over Winnipeg; Edmonton over Los Angeles; Vancouver over Nashville
Divisional Finals: Dallas over Colorado, Edmonton over Vancouver
Western Conference Finals: Dallas over Edmonton
Stanley Cup: Dallas over Carolina. And you won’t even need to put a foot in the crease this time around, Stars.
Your Turn
What do you expect to happen in this year’s playoffs? Which pending free agents in the postseason are you interested in as possible targets for the Devils? Who do you want to win? Other than Our Hated Rivals, who do you want to lose? Please leave your answers and other playoff thoughts in the comments. The general Open Post for the postseason discussion will be opened tomorrow afternoon. Thank you for reading.