The Jets drafted wide receiver Arian Smith with the earlier of their two fourth round picks in the 2024 draft, attempting to fill an obvious need for more impact playmakers on offense.
Can we determine anything from recent Jets history to get an idea of what to expect from Smith in 2025?
Last season we did this same exercise with Malachi Corley and reached the following seemed-reasonable-at-the-time conclusion:
Early on, Corley should be more of a complementary piece, unless there are injuries, or Williams is slow to rehab in his return from his previous surgery. However, if he stays healthy, somewhere between 40-to-60 catches would seem a reasonable expectation for him. It should be fun to see what he can do with those touches.
Little were we to know that Corley would barely play in the first half of the season and get bumped even further down the depth chart when the team traded for Davante Adams. He ended up with three catches for 16 yards.
That’s been closer to the norm in recent Jets history as essentially every wide receiver the Jets drafted in between Keyshawn Johnson and Garrett Wilson saw their career get off to a slow start.
The one rookie to buck that trend in that 25-year span was Robby/Robbie Anderson/Chosen, who was actually undrafted. (Although, to be fair, Elijah Moore was also reasonably productive in his rookie season one year before Wilson was drafted).
During that time span receivers like Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery and Santana Moss – who went on to have good Jets careers – still had disappointing rookie seasons with just 30 rookie year catches between the three of them. So maybe it’s not out of the question that Corley could still have a decent Jets career despite falling well short of the projection made based on the Jets receiver group lacking in depth and having a quarterback who was (it again seemed reasonable at the time) expected to spread the ball around and make everyone productive.
However, it’s probably more likely that Corley follows in the footsteps of some of the other underachieving receivers the Jets drafted, like Denzel Mims, ArDarius Stewart and Stephen Hill.
This isn’t supposed to be about Corley though, it’s about what the Jets can expect from the speedster Smith. How do we pitch our projection based on what happened with Corley? Do we simply assume any Jets rookie receiver is doomed to fail and that Wilson was a mere anomaly?
A few things are working in the favor of Smith, one of which is the fact that the Jets have even less depth than last year, so there are reps and targets to be won if he acquits himself well. Reports out of OTAs are that he looks good, but that’s probably meaningless because so did Moore…and Corley.
One thing clouding things on Smith is that he has a reputation as someone with shaky hands. This would damage his chance of producing if it affects him next season, not just in terms of the lost production on any particular plays where he fails to make the catch but also because it will make him less likely to be heavily involved if he can’t be relied upon.
By way of a projection, let’s look at a player who has been used primarily as a deep threat and has been a bit of a disappointment despite being drafted a round earlier than Smith was: Jalin Hyatt of the Giants.
Hyatt had 23 catches for 373 yards and no touchdowns as a rookie before failing to emulate those numbers last year. With lower expectations, if Smith can match or beat that kind of production in his rookie year, that will hopefully be a sign he’s on the right track. They would then look for him to build on that in year two and three.