Different data, different story: What to make of first round pick Armand Membou

Reasons to like and to dislike Membou’s prospects

Here’s the thing with data: there’s so much of it that you can craft just about any story you want if you look hard enough. Like a player? You can almost certainly find a datapoint to support that he’s good. Dislike that same player? You can almost certainly find a datapoint to support that he’s not good.

New York Jets first round pick, offensive tackle Armand Membou, is a perfect example of that.

If you like Membou, it’s very easy to find reasons why.

He’s super athletic and is physically comparable to some of the best tackles in the sport.

While that 9.90 is likely exaggerated given that he voluntarily opted out of agility testing (which we may assume is because he didn’t like how he was going to test on it), it’s still impressive on the data that we have and positions him to meet the physical needs of the position.

Membou was really impressive on the field in 2024. By the raw stats he didn’t allow a sack or quarterback pressure.

He was just as impressive based on graded performance. Pair that with his traditional counting stats and that positions him as one of the best offensive linemen in college football.

He is extremely young for the draft as he just recently turned 21. Generally speaking, younger prospects tend to have a higher upside than older prospects. These are all really good things.

However, it bears noting that most of Membou’s positives on the field come from just 2024. Indeed, he was not a data darling in 2023 or 2022 when ProFootballFocus gave him a very mediocre overall grade in the 67 range. More specifically, they thought Membou was particularly poor in the run game with season grades that did not exceed 65. While the NFL is changing, right tackle, where he is expected to play, is often expected to be a mauler in the run game. Membou’s play prior to this season didn’t suggest he would be that.

In line with those struggles, Membou was not a premier prospect heading into 2024. As I discussed previously, Membou was a draft afterthought in some ways, with some longer mock drafts placing him as a day 3 pick. As fans know, draft “risers” can be concerning prospects as the track record lags behind the most recent level of play.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Membou’s recent play is nothing short of stellar. If the Jets have accurately identified that his 2024 level of play is sustainable then it’s possible that this pick will be looked back on as one of the best ever made in the history of the franchise. However, if 2024 was a mirage then this could easily go sideways based on how he was viewed previously.

In the end, how you evaluate the pick is probably based on what data you want to focus on, because Membou, like just about every player, has data to support whatever argument you want to craft.