Skeptics rightly ask, How do you “know” that this was a very good draft? The answer is that you don’t know but you do have a high degree of confidence.
Dan Schneier: This draft class is “almost as good as it gets.”
Nick Falato: “This is another one of those feelings that is akin to last season, where the Giants did a good job. Their team is significantly better than it was just 3 days ago.”
Wonder: ““The Giants did extremely well for value. Every pick was sound and good. We won’t know what Dart will become, but I liked their process. I liked all of their picks and I loved the Skattebo pick.”
UltimateNYG: “Lights Out Draft. The Giants crushed this Draft.”
So why is it that we are all thrilled? Why is there confidence that this was a good draft? Can’t we be wrong?
The answer is that we believe the Giants have made a series of above average decisions. It could be that Dart is a bust. It could be that Carter does not deliver to his 1.03 pick where he was selected. It could be that Alexander, Skattebo and Mbow miss.
When people comment on a draft, they do not know what will happen. They extrapolate. They assess based on where players were taken. And then they look at all of the picks and see where they collectively landed.
In my business, where clients have to make multiple moves, we say that they are doing well if they make a series of above average decisions.
What does an above average decision look like in the Draft? For us to answer that question, it might be better to ask what does below average decision look like? My answer is Ted Ginn Jr.
It is not who you draft but where you draft them. Each year, you are given a set of draft chips and you have to allocate those resources as efficiently and effectively as you can. Ted Ginn was a well regarded WR who was expected to go late in the first round. When the Miami Dolphins selected him at 1.09 overall, that was an overdraft. The Dolphins wasted resources by taking a player that should not have been selected that highly. If they loved the player, trade down, get more assets, and then take Ginn lower. If he goes off the board, take someone else. In summary, the Ted Ginn selection at 1.09 was a well below average draft decision. The outcome is irrelevant. Ted Ginn can go to the Hall of Fame (he did not). The day of the draft it was a poor below average decision.
If any team drafted Cam Skattebo in Round 1 or Round 2, I would said that that was a poor draft decision. I love the player. I hate the location where he was taken. When teams overdraft, it shows a lack of understanding of where the player belongs in terms of risk & reward. It shows a lack of understanding of where other teams will otherwise select the player. And it shows a lack of understanding of what Richard Thaler calls the Overvaluing of the Right to Choose.
Annie Duke wrote a book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts. Isn’t that exactly what the NFL Draft is, a lot of bets on a bunch of college football players? The message of the book is to make good decisions and do not equate the outcome with the validity of the decision (called resulting).
WR Wan’Dale Robinson is a perfect example of a good result but a bad draft choice. He is a very good player. When you take a slot WR at 2.43, he needs to be very special in order for it to work. Slot WRs are not X or Y WRs. He has produced (525 yds in 2023, 700 yds in 2024) but it is a waste of resources to take someone this high and get modest results. We do need to appreciate that the QB situation limited his production. Yet that 2.43 spot needs more. The day of the draft we liked the pick but did not like the spot. This was a below average draft decision. Along with Josh Ezeudu, it hollowed out the guts of the 2022 draft.
When we review this 2025 NFL Draft, we ask- did the Giants make good decisions? We will not know the outcome for years. If all the players get fluke injuries which end their careers prematurely, does that make the Draft bad? If the coaching is outstanding and the division they play in is bad, resulting in better than otherwise performance, does that make the Draft good? We have to normalize for larger sets of data.
So let’s look at the first 5 picks.
1.03 EDGE Abdul Carter. The Giants resisted the temptation to go QB early, other than trying to trade up for Cam Ward. They got the BPA, so they handled the situation properly. Also, because Carter is able to be an effective pass rusher with elite bend (the best bend since Von Miller), that is a coveted skill set (QB, Protect QB, Rush the QB). The Giants did not overcomplicate this and took the pass rusher. This makes this pick an above average draft decision.
1.25 QB Jaxson Dart. Like it or not, the entire Draft in retrospect will be graded on how well Dart does. The Giants traded up 9 spots and gave up 3.99 + R3 in 2026. In a QB-driven league, if you want one, you always need to pay up to one degree or another. Right here, right now, in April 2025, without the lookback option, without knowledge of the complete process the Giants employed in vetting Dart, we must wait. Incomplete.
3.65 DT Darius Alexander. This was a very deep DT class. The Giants needed DT to help Lawrence and the LBers with the run game. Alexander was one of the people by name that we specifically liked, discussed and targeted pre-draft. He was taken in a very good range for his skills, specifically having upside ceiling as a 3-down Tackle which would exceed where he was drafted. All of this makes this pick an above average draft decision.
4.105. RB Cam Skattebo. This was a very deep RB class. The Giants have adopted a very healthy and efficient drafting model of repeatedly taking a Day 3 RB for value. Skattebo was the premier name that Schneier specifically liked, discussed, and targeted pre-draft. He was taken in a very good range for his skills, having the ability to do so many things in the run and pass game. This was uncommon value. All of this makes this pick a well above average draft decision. I would go one step further. The team that chose Skattebo in mid R3+ was likely going to have one of the best Drafts of any team in 2025.
5.154 T Marcus Mbow. The Giants would have taken this player at 4.105 if they had not given up the 3.99 pick to the Texans (which would have been used for Skattebo) to move up for Dart. The Giants would have taken Mbow at 4.105 if Skattebo was off the board. Mbow was a name we specifically liked, discussed, and targeted pre-draft. What is even crazier is that we eyed him at 4.105 going into Day 3. Even Schneier acquiesced to putting OL trenches ahead of RB, and was comfortable foregoing Skattebo for Mbow. And yet the Giants somehow were able to still land the versatile lineman with ‘nasty’ 49 picks later. Say what you want about Schoen, but his decision to draft Skattebo in R4 and then wait on Mbow was well executed. This is uncommon value. All of this makes this pick a well above average draft decision. I would go one step further. Given that he has the potential to be a swing Tackle or even play Center (see link at top), fulfills need, is a player in the trenches and is a R5 pick, that is crazy value. I suspect teams shied away from Mbow because his shorter arms reduce his chances at Tackle. BBB also notes his need to work on his anchor. Nothing is free in Round 5. BUT all the same, at Round 5 you are paid for the risk. Swing!
The final 2 selections are in Round 7. We note that Korie Black is a top 30 visit but refrain from assessing their value. If they can play a couple of years of special teams that would be par.
If look at the sum of their parts, this is a very good draft. Above Average. Above Average. Well Above Average. Well Above Average. We do not know if any/all of these players make it. But if they hit on 3 of 4 that will be a very big draft. Yes, the Dart result will likely eclipse the other 4 picks in terms of judgment/impact of QB, but for us right now in April 2025, this is a very good draft because it has given the Giants 4 players who have the potential to meaningfully contribute. When you layer in that the Giants got QB (Dart), Protect QB (Mbow) and Rush the QB (Carter + possible help from Alexander), that is a very strong effort.