I have an array of loose items I’d like to hit as we embark on the eve of the Conference Championship games.
- The Bye. Is it a blessing or curse? Last weekend we watched as both the Ravens and 49ers, the two best teams this season, struggled in the divisional round. The Ravens were tied with the Texans at halftime and could have easily been down 13-10 if not for a missed FG, while the 49ers needed a final drive for the go-ahead TD in order to win their game.
We checked the statistics on how the #1 Seed has fared in the Divisional Round since realignment in 2002. Rest? Rust? Blessing? Curse? While the Gmen seem to have had an inverted experience, thriving by beating the #1 seed in 2007 & 2011 and losing as the #1 seed in 2008, the numbers are close to what we would expect. In 22 years, 44 total teams (1 from each Conference) have lost 13 Divisional Round games. A 70% win rate is fairly close to the moneyline we would normally expect in these games. Maybe it should be ~75% (3 out of every 4 #1 seeds should win their games). This would indicate that rust is a slightly bigger factor than rest.
- Kylie. I really enjoyed the Kelce brothers, particularly Jason Kelce showing up for his brother Travis in Buffalo last weekend. Apparently, Jason’s wife Kylie tells the story of how her husband was set on going through a table in the Bills Mafia parking lot. Gotta love the authenticity of Jason Kelce.
- Jason Kelce. Bare-chested in the Buffalo cold. Looking to break tables. George Young: “We are not in the business of well-adjusted human beings.”
- Kelce HOF. Both Kelce brothers are going into Canton on the first ballot. Jason looks to be retiring this offseason. Good for Giants fans that we no longer have to see him twice a year. While I suspect that Travis will probably not retire this year, it would be unprecedented to not only have two brothers in the HOF, but both inducted the same year. Crazy.
- Identity. In the previous post, we asked aloud of Joe Schoen- what is your (team’s) identity? There was a terrific article in the Atlantic about the SF 49ers journey, and how new GM John Lynch set out to (re)build the franchise.
Yogi Berra: “If you don’t know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.“
- Wellman. The Giants hired Aaron Wellman to be the new Executive Director of Player Performance. Whatever that title means, he will be the new Strength and Conditioning coach. Good. It was Wellman who helped the team do a complete turnaround in 2016 after 3 consecutive years finishing dead last in injuries. The video linked on Wellman above discusses muscle to bone ratio. Go to minute 21:50 and listen to Wellman discuss a NYG WR who wanted to lose weight. Wellman is a 21st Century tactician. This is a much more meaningful uptick for Giants injuries prognosis. I can’t see how the Giants do not get back into the pack this year.
Separately, at minute 51 Wellman talks about Eli Manning.
- Dilution. I think the Peacock attempt to create awareness for their streaming brand was part of what drove them to blow, er I mean spend, $100M for a single Wild Card playoff game. The greed of the NFL and Goodell to continue diluting the sport to a point where they will enrich themselves and erode fan engagement is madness. As a limit (I cannot help it, calculus engineering regime modeling), we end up with the NFL making an infinite amount of money while no one is watching. Metaphor or not, this trend of continuing dilution is completely unsustainable.
- Screen. I am sick and tired of this franchise being unable to run a successful screen. In the playoffs, we watch screens that were run at critical moments where the Defense blitzed. Touchdown. These playcalls are important to aid your QB/OL. They require the Defensive Coordinator to reduce the aggressiveness of their scheme.
- Nature vs Nurture. OL poor drafting vs OL poor coaching. The debate wages on. I am extremely eager to watch Carmen Bricillo. Let’s give him two seasons. I am hopeful that we will see improvement in Year 1.
- Belichick. I have zero idea whether the speculation about Bill Belichick vis a vis NY Giants (2025?) can somehow materialize. I suspect it is there to sell clicks and eyeballs.