‘Things I think’ as New York Giants training camp approaches

Quarterback stuff, Dexter Lawrence, and more

New York Giants players report for training camp on Tuesday, with the first practice set for Wednesday morning at Quest Diagnostics Training Center. With that in mind, here are some things I think about as our summer siesta ends and football begins.

QB controversy?

Head coach Brian Daboll has said again and again this offseason that Russell Wilson will be the Week 1 starter at quarterback for the Giants. Nothing that happened this spring, where Wilson took the vast majority of first-team reps was widely praised by everyone within the Giants who was asked about him, indicated Daboll’s words were, well, just words.

Yet, the speculation has continued, mostly around the idea that rookie Jaxson Dart could play so well this summer that he leaves the Giants no choice but to give him the starting job right away.

Judy Battista, Mike Garafolo and Tom Pelissero discussed that topic recently on ‘The Insiders.’ At Yahoo! Sports, Jason Fitz, Jori Epstein and Frank Schwab raised the idea that Dart could win the job with an exceptional training camp.

Yes, Wilson won the Seattle Seahawks’ job after being selected in the third round in 2012. His competition, though, was Matt Flynn, a career backup who cashed in with the Seahawks after one 480-yard, six-touchdown game with the Green Bay Packers.

Dart is not competing with Flynn. Dart has a Super Bowl-winning, 10-time Pro Bowl quarterback who is a borderline Hall of Famer at the top of the depth chart. Yes, we all know Wilson isn’t in his prime.

I think Dart should, and will, start games at some point during the 2025 season. I just can’t see a world where the Giants, even though they have no long-term commitment or allegiance to Wilson, disrespect him that way.

A bargain … for now

Dexter Lawrence is considered the best or second-best defensive tackle in football, depending on which pre-2025 season ranking you happen to be reading.

That makes him not only a tremendous and critically-important player for the Giants, it makes him a tremendous value. Lawrence signed a four-year, $87.5 million contract with $46.5 million guaranteed prior to the 2023 season.

Here is where Lawrence’s contract sits among the highest-paid defensive tackles:

• Total value: Ninth. Chris Jones (five years, $158.75 million is No. 1).
• Average Per Year: Tenth at $21.875 million. Jones ($31.75 million) is No. 1.
• Guarantee: Seventh. Jones at $60 million is No. 1.

After 2025, Lawrence has two years left on his contract. You can bet that he and his agent, Joel Segal, see the market. At some point in the not-too-distant future, Lawrence is going to begin making noises about an extension at an annual value of $32 million or more. Or, if things continue for the Giants the way they have for most of Lawrence’s career, he will be looking for a new employer.

That’s just the business of the NFL.

Worst-case scenario

The folks from Pro Football and Sports Network have suggest best- and worst-case scenarios for every NFL team. I am going to use both as jumping off points to propose my own best- and worst-case scenarios for the Giants this season.

Let’s start with the worst-case, to get the bad juju out of the way.

PFSN says:

Record: 3-14

On paper, the New York Giants should be better than they were in 2024. They didn’t lose any major free agents and added players like Jevon Holland, Paulson Adebo, Abdul Carter, and Russell Wilson this offseason. Getting better on paper doesn’t always translate to a better record, though.

The Giants have offensive line concerns, they lack a top weapon opposite Malik Nabers, and Wilson isn’t the quarterback he used to be. Their defense should be solid in 2025, and the team should ultimately be better as a result. However, their lack of offensive firepower could keep them from competing in the NFC East.

Another 3-14 season would truly be awful. It would probably lead to Daboll being fired. Maybe GM Joe Schoen, too. It might lead to star players like Lawrence, Malik Nabers and others begging to be sent to new NFL homes. It might lead to another organizational upheaval, and the arrival of a regime that doesn’t believe in Dart.

All of that would leave the Giants, who on paper seem to finally be making some progress toward sustainable improvement, back at square one.

Here, though, is another take on what might be a worst-case scenario.

What if the Giants are good enough to be on the edge of the playoff race throughout the season. The Giants decide to go for it, and believe sticking with the veterans Wilson and Winston gives them the best chance to get there. They fall short, and never get a meaningful regular-season look at Dart.

In my view, that’s a double-edged daggar.

Best-case scenario

PFSN says:

Record: 7-10

The 2024 season was not kind to the New York Giants, as they ended the year with a measly 3-14 record. After some of the moves they’ve made this offseason, they could see their win total increase.

It would be a surprise to see the Giants make it to the playoffs, but their roster is in better shape than last year. Jevon Holland and Paulson Adebo are strong additions to the secondary, and Abdul Carter has All-Pro potential off the edge. If Russell Wilson can improve at quarterback, they could outperform expectations, as low as they may be.

I went on record immediately after the 2025 schedule as predicting a 7-10 season, and saying that was the most optimistic outcome I could comfortably predict for the Giants. So, I have no issue with the call of 7-10 being a realistic ceiling.

I think, though, that the best-case scenario for the Giants is more nuanced than that. It would be outstanding if the Giants far exceeded expectations, won nine or 10 games, and snuck into the playoffs as a wild-card team. Would that be the best-case scenario? Again, I think it is more nuanced.

I don’t believe I can put a number of victories on a “best-case” scenario for the Giants this season. And that has everything to do with the quarterback situation.

If you believe, as I do, that the best chance for Dart to develop into a good NFL quarterback is if the Giants can avoid firing Daboll and putting Dart on the coach/GM/offensive coordinator meat-grinder that helped eat up Daniel Jones, you might like this scenario.

For me, the best thing that can happen to the Giants is that they win enough games in the first half to two-thirds of the season that Daboll and Schoen prove to ownership that they finally have things pointed in the right direction. Ownership makes it clear, maybe with contract extensions, that they will return in 2026. Whatever that number is, I don’t know. Maybe, though, it has them at least on the periphery of the playoff race heading to the final five or six weeks of the season.

At some point, once it is clear that the Giants are a better, competitive team, I think the best-case scenario would be pulling the plug on Wilson to begin the process of finding out if Dart can be what the Giants can be.

That is what Tom Coughlin did in 2004. The Giants were 5-4 and in a position where the playoffs were possible, but he decided it was more important to give Eli Manning an NFL Baptism than find out if Kurt Warner could help a mediocre Giants team squeeze into the playoffs.

Prove that they are better, whatever the final record. Prep their quarterback of the future for full-time duty in 2026 with some meaningful live action in 2025. That, to me, is the best-case scenario.

NFC East previews

Over the past few ‘Valentine’s Views’ podcasts, I have been speaking with folks who cover the Giants division rivals. Here are those shows, if you are interested:

Washington Commanders with DC sportswriter Rick Snider.

Dallas Cowboys with RJ Ochoa of Blogging The Boys.

Philadelphia Eagles with Brandon Lee Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation.